The bull market is underway. Or is it? July brought Bitcoin from $30,000 to $40,000, August brought it from $40,000 to above $50,000. September gave Bitcoin that much needed rest before October brought it to a new all time high of $67,000. November is here, what can we expect this month?
In the stock market, November has traditionally been among the top months for trading. On average, November sees increases ranging from 1-2%, which is relatively good in traditional markets.
What about the cryptocurrency market? Historically, how has Bitcoin performed during the month of November? Will November be a red month? Or will it be taking Bitcoin to higher highs and live up to its popular name “Moonvember”?
The statistics are looking very good for Bitcoin in November. Looking back at the Bitcoin charts it’s easy to see that Bitcoin tends to see positive returns in the month of November.
As a crypto investor and trader, should you be excited? Is it time to go all in?
Over the last decade, seven out of ten November’s were green. On average, when Bitcoin saw positive returns, Bitcoin had an increase in 85.68%! 2020’s green November saw a monthly return of 42.59%! When November has been red, the average returns were about -19.27%.
While November seems to be an exciting and promising month for Bitcoin, traders should still be cautious. The months of April and May, like November, have historically been green months. 2021 decided that both would be red this year.
During the first week of November the Bitcoin bulls struggled with the bears. On the daily time frame Bitcoin had been in a descending channel, but the Bitcoin bears were able to breakout and Bitcoin went as high as $64,300. Over the next few days the bears brought Bitcoin back down to as low as $59,500. $60,000 acted as a very strong support zone for Bitcoin. Had Bitcoin closed below $60,000 then we likely would’ve seen further downside. Bitcoin closes the first week with a green candle and an increase of about 1.27%.
The second week Bitcoin exploded and broke new all time highs once again at $69,000 USD. Both the bulls and bears are battling to try and move the price in their preferred direction. There is a strong resistance at $65,000 that the bulls need to breakthrough. It is possible that the bears could bring the Bitcoin price down to the strong support of $60,000 USD. The bulls look to be closing the weekly with a price well above $63,000 and have thus printed its second green candle of November and an increase of about 3%.
The third week of November was absolutely brutal. The bears took control of Bitcoin and for three days dragged the price all the way down to $55,600 USD, which was roughly a decrease of about 14%. Towards the end of the week the bulls fought back and brought the price back up above $58,000 USD and closed the week just below the $59,000 USD resistance.
The fourth and final week of November began with the bears in control. Lower lows were made on the daily, and Bitcoin dropped to as low as $55,100 USD. Black Friday brought shockingly deep discounts on the market as it fell to its lowest values in recorded Black Friday history. The stock and crypto markets dropped and Bitcoin hit as low as $53,000 USD. Despite the downside volatility so far Bitcoin is still in a rising channel when zooming out and looking at the bigger picture, which is bullish.
The Greed and Fear Index have been ranging between “Fear” and “Neutral.” Sentiment was at “Extreme Fear” on Black Friday but now it currently sits at “Fear.”
As it stands right now, the month of November is red. Unless the bulls can bring Bitcoin up past $65,500 USD next week, well then the 2021 bears will have beaten the statistical odds and will have printed its fourth red November candle in the last eleven years.
Anything can happen. Always expect the unexpected. Stick to your plan. Take profits. Set your stop losses. Don’t get greedy.
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*Disclaimer- I am not a certified financial planner/advisor, certified financial analyst, economist, CPA, accountant, or lawyer, or anything important for that matter. The contents of this article are for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. Always do your own research.*