“The rear view mirror is always more clearer than the windshield.”
No one can predict the future with 100% certainty, but we can learn from the past. Looking back at how the markets have performed during previous months and years can give you an idea of what may be in store for the future. Risk management is the one thing you can control while you wait for good opportunities to arise.
Bloody September has come and gone. What can we expect from the month of October? Like September, October has also had a bad reputation in the stock market, even so as to have had the name “The October Effect”. “The October Effect” is a market anomaly and not related to any particular market event or news.
What about the cryptocurrency market? Historically, how has Bitcoin performed during the month of October? Will October be a red month? Or will it break this streak of red monthly candles and live up to its name “Uptober”?
The statistics do not support the bad reputation October has been given. In the Cryptocurrency Market Bitcoin definitely has performed better in October than September. Looking back at the Bitcoin charts it’s easy to see that Bitcoin tends to see positive returns in the month of October.
As a crypto investor/trader, should you be excited? Is it time to go all in?
Over the last decade, seven out of eleven Octobers were green, and the last three years have been green.
The average historical monthly return for Bitcoin in the month of October is about 33%! When October has been red, the returns were about -23%. October 2021 saw a huge increase of almost 40%!
October seems to be a promising month for Bitcoin. However, traders should still be cautious. The months of April and May, like October, have historically been green months. 2021 and 2022 decided that both would be red this year.
Bitcoin closed its second GREEN WEEK in October. Bitcoin was rejected at the 20400 zone and has since been moving sideways. On the daily and weekly timeframes Bitcoin has been making higher highs, which is bullish. Zooming out and looking at the monthly timeframe we can see Bitcoin is still bearish. I don’t see any big moves yet until 20.5k or 19.05k is broken.
Bitcoin closed its third week of October with a red candle. It’s been holding Monday’s low at $19,000. We saw a huge drop to $18,000 this week which I believe Bitcoin will fill that low in the future… maybe next month? Bitcoin has been supported by this trend line that I’ve drawn but it is coming up to a big overhead resistance at $20,000. Overall, fairly volatile week as Bitcoin made some huge wicks (up and down) but couldn’t confirm a breakout or breakdown.
As always, investors and traders should be cautious this month. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed index has settled at “Extreme Fear.”
While I think October will be green I still believe that Bitcoin will go even lower. My big picture is that we will see Bitcoin fall to the $15,000-$16,000 range before gradually starting to make its way back up. Bitcoin has been in this falling wedge pattern since November 2021 and we’ll just have to wait and see how it plays out.
If you have the spare funds then this could be a great discount to buy up some Bitcoin for the long term.
Anything can happen. Always expect the unexpected. Stick to your plan. Take profits. Set your stop losses. Don’t get greedy.
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*Disclaimer- I am not a certified financial planner/advisor, certified financial analyst, economist, CPA, accountant, or lawyer, or anything important for that matter. The contents of this article are for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. Always do your own research.*