Sirwin
Sirwin

Even If You’re a Bitcoiner, You Wouldn’t Want the Price of Bitcoin to Reach $1M by June 15, 2023.

By ssaurel | In Bitcoin We Trust | 23 Mar 2023


Whether or not you follow news from the Bitcoin world or the financial markets and economics, I'm sure you've heard this incredible prediction made by Balaji Srinivasan on March 17, 2023.

Balaji Srinivasan bet $2 million that Bitcoin would be worth $1M or more within 90 days. That brings us to June 15, 2023.

Such a prediction must have made all those who don't understand the why of Bitcoin and dream of making a quick fortune fantasize. Perhaps some people even started buying Bitcoin in the hope that this crazy prediction would turn out to be true.

After all, you never know, some will say...

And then they'll tell you that Balaji Srinivasan is not just anyone. He is a well-known investor and the former technology chief at Coinbase. So his prediction might carry more weight given his experience in the industry.

At the heart of Balaji Srinivasan's thesis, you find the implosion of the current system, but also the switch of the general public from gold to Bitcoin as a way to protect themselves from the collapse of the current system.

The first important thing to do is to put this $1M per Bitcoin figure into perspective.

What does this represent?

Currently, the price of Bitcoin is $27.6K. This puts Bitcoin's market cap ($537B) just behind Tesla's ($604B):

 

You can see that Bitcoin has a market cap that is still only half that of silver ($1.295T) and 26 times lower than gold which is above $13T.

The first goal would be for Bitcoin to exceed the November 2021 ATH at $69K to reach $100K. At $100K, Bitcoin's market cap would be at the level of Apple's market cap on March 22, 2023, or $2.5T.

At $500K, Bitcoin's market cap would still be $3T lower than gold's on March 23, 2023, since it would be $10T.

At $1M, the Bitcoin market cap would be equivalent to that of the entire US Treasury Market ($24T).

The possibility of Bitcoin's market cap reaching this level exists, but Balaji Srinivasan tells us that it will happen by June 15, 2023, at the latest. This makes his prediction totally unlikely, and even stupid.

A $1M Bitcoin means a +3,600% increase from the current price. Bitcoin has already seen such an exponential increase in price in 90 days, but at the time its price was $1. It's not the same to increase in 90 days by +3.600% when Bitcoin's market cap is already over $500B.

If you are a Bitcoiner like I am, you would not be happy to see this happen, because for that to happen, hundreds of millions of people around the world would have to suffer. And that's not what you want!

A crazy scenario for this to happen would be for example:

  1. Hyperinflation is taking over America, as we have seen in the past in Zimbabwe and Venezuela. The problem is that we are talking about the world's reserve currency. This would affect 8 billion people. The US dollar would lose more than 95% of its value in less than 3 months.

  2. All the money that would leak out of the current system would have to go into the Bitcoin market. Given the current level of awareness of the general public regarding Bitcoin, why wouldn't the gold market capture a huge portion of it?

  3. You're assuming that governments would stand by and not come in and confiscate your BTC units that are still on exchange platforms or owned by others on your behalf.

Furthermore, for this scenario to exist, more Black Swan events would have to occur. The global banking crisis would not be enough. It would take WW3 or a nuclear cataclysm. But if that happened, I doubt that the priority would be to switch fiat money to Bitcoin. The priority would simply be to survive.

It would be a catastrophe for humanity if the hyperbitcoinization of the world happened so abruptly because hundreds of millions of people would not have had time to wake up to Bitcoin to protect themselves from the complete and ultra-fast collapse of the current system.

These people would be left with nothing.

Some Bitcoiners may tell you that it will be their fault. After all, everyone has heard of Bitcoin by now, and everyone has had the opportunity to buy it just in case... Yes, but in the end, that doesn't mean we should wish the worst on hundreds of millions of people around the world, just so we can brag and say, “We told you Bitcoin was the way to protect yourself from this collapse of the current system.

You don't want to live in a world where the whole economy crumbles.

A future world where Bitcoin is priced at $1M exists. We can see it, but it is better for everyone if the mass adoption of Bitcoin occurs at a pace that allows as many people as possible to own some BTC units.

So, if you are a Bitcoiner, but a responsible one who seeks above all to promote a better system for as many people as possible in the future, you can only hope that this prediction of a $1M Bitcoin by June 15, 2023, is wrong.

Finally, from a more personal point of view, I would prefer that people with a large audience like Balaji Srinivasan stop making such predictions that only seek to create a buzz, but a bad buzz for Bitcoin.

The current banking crisis once again highlights the flaws in the current system.

Instead of making a stupid prediction about the price of Bitcoin in 90 days, those who have a large audience should take the opportunity to explain again and again the why of Bitcoin, and especially how Bitcoin solves the problems of the current system for the benefit of the many.

This is what I am constantly trying to do on my modest level, and it is also why I wrote my book “The Truth About Bitcoin.” The goal is to make as many people as possible understand that their interest is not to focus on the short-term price of Bitcoin but rather to focus on the fundamentals of Bitcoin.

In short, leave the noise aside and focus on the real signal: the Bitcoin revolution.


The Fed Has Spoken, $89M of Long Positions Liquidated, but the Price of Bitcoin Retains Support at $26.8K and Still Looks Towards $30K.

https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8fd90c2d-260f-4a9b-8f73-e10d0704e29a_4456x1798.png

BTC Price Update.

Link: https://inbitcoinwetrust.substack.com/p/the-fed-has-spoken-89m-of-long-positions

How do you rate this article?

84


ssaurel
ssaurel Verified Member

Entrepreneur / Developer / Blogger / Author.


In Bitcoin We Trust
In Bitcoin We Trust

In Bitcoin We Trust is a place where Bitcoin believers share their ideas about the upcoming revolution. Blockchain and cryptocurrencies are also covered in this publication.

Send a $0.01 microtip in crypto to the author, and earn yourself as you read!

20% to author / 80% to me.
We pay the tips from our rewards pool.