Things to do before the Bull arrives: Set your Sell Targets

By bengy | Idle Musings | 14 Mar 2023


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Well... all of that potential bank collapses and the de-pegging of stablecoins due to the potential of banks not being able to cover withdrawals and the potential of uninsured deposits affecting startups, digital projects, and crypto projects has had Bitcoin and other "volatile" crypto assets see a sudden surge as crypto people "fled" stablecoins for hard crypto assets! Weird... anyway, with the news that all the depositors are going to be made whole (or at least those with Silicon Valley Bank... maybe not Signature) with "no immediate and direct cost to US taxpayers" has not really tempered that spike... I guess that most people are seeing that as the money printer coming to the rescue again with the effect of just shunting the cost to the future... with inflation shrinking the real cost of the "not-bailout".

Oh well... that means that prices are about the same as a few weeks ago. A nice illustration of the effect of short-term thinking and emotions on the market. It feels like a huge spike... but we are still quite a bit under what things were about 3 weeks ago!

Anyway... what it did goad me into writing was the last (probably...) of the series of things to do before the Bull arrives.

... and this, I have written about many times in the past. And it is still relevant.... as we are not really in a bull market yet. The idea is the concept of setting and sticking to selling targets for your digital assets... too often, you hear stories of people holding past the peak and then back down to where they started (at best...)... or sometimes, right back down to zero.

In a bull market, it is hard to set these targets... you always think that if you just hold out a little bit longer... then you will reap EVEN MORE profit... and before you know it, you are sunk again as you miss the peak and you delude yourself into thinking that another spike will come. Plus, it is only human... but when you are in a bull market, you concept of what is an acceptable profit gets really out of whack! And as the market goes further up... your targets keep pushing higher and higher, never to be triggered.

So... when you are in the sober depths of a bear or befor3 the euphoria takes hold.... this is the time to decide what will make you happy. What do you want your digital assets to do for you... is to buy you a car, to set up a bit more super, deposit into a house, or an education fund for you children. Note that these are tangible things that you can achieve and that you will have after the bull recedes. In comparison, in a bull market, you are just chasing other people's comparative dreams or just flat out looking for a bigger number... not the things that you would have been happy with just a few months back!

So, set your targets... price triggers for selling certain tokens/coins or a percentage of your portfolio... never selling everything, and having a multiple staggered targets. That way, you always hold onto a moonbag in case you sold a bit too early... and you never sell everything, but at the very least... you recover the capital that put in. After that, you are playing with house money... and it doesn't really matter what happens.

Of course, there are always going to be those die-hard idealists that will NEVER sell... and I do think that there is much other there that has the potential to be the future infrastructure of the digital economy and society... However, always be pragmatic... it is possible that even the strongest conviction can be wrong, and there is no harm in hedging against that possibility... by making sure that you don't LOSE.

... and for me, that is the biggest goal of investing (especially in high-risk assets like cryptocurrency)... the goal is NOT to win... but it is to NOT lose. Slightly different nuance, but it means that the worst that can happen is that you are back to where you started... and in the best case, a bit better off.

And these are ideas that are best thought about before the hype and euphoria set in... and we are lost to the world of green candles and numbers go up.

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bengy
bengy

I am a Musician (Violinist/Violist) specialising in Early Music living in The Netherlands. I have a background in Mathematics and Physics due to an earlier tertiary level study... and so, I'm still quite interested in Science and Technology related stuff!


Idle Musings
Idle Musings

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