The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and speculative but a good understanding of TA, FA, and other general market influencers will help investors to minimize risk.
The price of a token is a direct indication of the value/prospect of the token to the users and the problem that it solves or intends to solve. Despite the obvious steep decline in prices throughout the year 2018 some tokens showed a reasonable level of price stability in the bearish market. The market psychology in November being the second month in the last quarter Q4 of the year was more bullish than bearish from investors opinion polls as if comparing it to the same period in 2017 but the general market did not perform as expected since there was no trend reversal. Below is the price analysis of HYDRO in November 2018.
Fig1.0: Graph showing the price movement of Hydro in November from CMC
Looking closely HYDRO had a pretty stable (supportive) price all through November which can be divided into two parts as seen in the graph above. The first fifteen days of the month saw the prices holding between 0.00000079BTC (0.005059USD) and 0.00000060BTC (0.003372) which represented about 24% drop considering the satoshi value and about 33% drop in USD value. A 24% drop could be considered a good hold looking at the strong downward pull at that time with some tokens having above 45% drop in their satoshi value. The wider drop in USD value of HYDRO was obviously due to the unstable nature of the major base currency (BTC) within the same period.
The stability party around the above values soon turned sour as more bears arrived in the market in the second half of the month lowering the market cap which made the token shed off some of its market value. The further drop in prices lowered the monthly average to a new range i.e. between 0.00000060BTC (0.003332) and 0.00000053BTC(0.002129USD) per Hydro token. This new prices formed the second plateau in the month. The price behavior of the token in the second half can be likened to its behavior in the first half but with a gentle slope as the 200 EMA line tightly hugged the half way line all through making it difficult to identify a breakout in the trend (refer to the 1hr monthly chat for November below).
Fig.2.0: RSI, EMA, and MACD Trading view of Hydro in November from Bittrex Chat
The RSI 14 line showed the same close movement with no clear downwards or upward spike. All through November Hydro always showed great holding strength at every new range and almost could be thought of as a stable coin by holders.
The overall price movement of Hydro in November can be seen from different perspective. Long term holders believed the holding power meant they have made good investment decision since its preferable for a coin to hold its price in a bear season if it’s not moving upward than to go downward on a falling spree, on the other hand day traders saw it that it didn’t yield much because of its stable coin behavior accompanied by low trading volume on Bittrex its perceived biggest exchange.
On a fundamental note some of the reasons believed to have encouraged such strong holding power in the thick of the bear market could be tied to the cumulative effect of the team’s active progress in project development in the previous months - many partnerships announcements were made and several awards won (like the FiNext award for excellence in Fintech) in the month of October and the early part of November. It can be recalled that the Hydro team had just finished what it tagged the Blocktoberfest series in October, where there were continuous intentional efforts in the explanation of different phases (Raindrop, Snowflake, Tide, Mist, Ice, and Hail) of the project to increase investors’ confidence and understanding of what the project aims to achieve. Entered partnership with its first KYC client WYRE that would perform KYC using the Hydro snowflake (A protocol for aggregating digital identity information that’s broadly interoperable with existing digital identity standards. Hydro SnowFlake Explained) when fully developed and many more progress made on the project roadmap.
This market analysis can easily lead to certain conclusions which can be summarized as seen below:
Looking at the dollar value of the token at the beginning of the month and the price at the end it suffices to say that it was another bloodbath month with a reasonable % decrease in token price, but seeing that the satoshi value had only a little drop dancing between 53-79 satoshi can also be comforting.
There are many reasons to predict that hydro has more tendency to go upwards from here in the coming months and years. some of these reasons are highlighted below:
working product: Research has shown that only a handful of the top 100 tokens by market cap on CMC have a working product. The vast majority of these tokens are even yet to come out of testnet or enter mainnet, and without a working product that anyone can relate with. It now bothers on what criteria made them sit up on the table. The case is different with Hydro. Hydro already have a working product (Hydro Raindrop App) that seeks to solve the security issue in the crypto/fintech space using blockchain solution. It has so far been proven to be hack proof and best fit for the industry. Work on the Snowflake app is also nearing completion before final roll out. This is believed to solve the digital identity problems and greatly reduce time to on-board clients.
Partnerships: After the ICO bubble in 2017, with crypto companies now facing strict government regulations and ban, blockchain based project are only going to grow proportionally with what it brings to the table. Going by this, since Hydro already have a working product it means it’s just a matter of time before it becomes the go-to place for fintech companies seeking for security solutions and other services that it provides. The team already boasts of some juicy partnerships under its belt with the likes of CI Investment , TD Bank Group (Sixth largest bank in North America managing assets worth over CDN$1.3 trillion. here ) that will use the whole API suite of project Hydro for better banking services. Meaning any full implementation announcement from these big players can only buoy the price upwards. The key word here is that, onward, smart money will only go to smart projects with great milestones, which Hydro seem to be well positioned for.
Hydro is among the few tokens within its ranking on CMC that has shown such admirable resilience in price. It is worthy of note at this point that Hydro only did an airdrop to the developer community on github (all airdrops are finished now) and never conducted an ICO to raise funds.
In addition to the team’s tireless effort to achieve the roadmap which has started getting the required attention, listing on a bigger and more prominent exchanges are other reasons that can cause an upward surge in price.
All these are pointers to the fact that if project development continues at this pace then the future is bright even though the market is currently bleak.