The beginning of the year 2020, for Bitcoin and almost all of the others cryptocurrencies, has been like the first 20 seconds in a roller coaster. In this case the first move was down, and that was the direction that I, and some others as well, considered as the new trend.

We have had a downtrend for almost half a year, if we look at the charts a bit, but for a while it seemed that Bitcoin found the ground at around $7,300. It was not sustainable, and yesterday we had a flash crash to under $7,000 for BTC, that almost made me sell everything and quit the game. I'm not the only one willing to bite from the devil's apple and leave the heaven for good.

Almost all of the ones that I talked to, and the sentiment on crypto twitter, seems to be in tune with the more downfall to come theory. Not Bitcoin though. To my amazement, after not selling of course, the market miraculously recovered and got back to the floating levels, that I mentioned above, and that's when I realized that I was almost becoming a sheep, like many other weak hands, not acting as a contrarian at all.

In 2018, BTC felt hard from its indestructible $6,000 at the beginning of November and the bulls caught it at a bit over three thousand dollars, managing to make it grow stronger on a half year time frame, till they sold it at $14k. Not me. I am a dumb hodler that doesn't know how to take profits and still waits for mooning, like the one I missed in 2017.

This time around, Bitcoin registered its almost scheduled end of the year free fall at the beginning of November 2018, and ever since seems consolidating. Yes, it slipped a few times under seven thousands, in the last few months, but the bulls again believed in it, and didn't let it fall harder than that. This might be the new $3,000 level for Bitcoin from where it will consolidate and start climbing again.

The halving is just a few months away, and although some believe it is already priced in, I don't feel like. I wrote "feel like" because I'm not an expert and I don't know anything for sure regarding BTC's price evolution. Looking at the past two years charts for BTC almost every year it does the same. Falls at the end of one year, consolidates for a few months, explodes by July and then starts a downfall trend. Why wouldn't this year be the same?

I do consider though that 2020 will bring that long awaited $20,000 for one BTC... again, or even more, and the halving will come in hand. I don't believe in astronomic prices, but if in 2019 it got to $14,000 I think that 2020 will bring the $20k after over three years. I might be wrong though... I'm not Nostradamus.

What makes me think this way using these numbers, and what makes me realize that I would have been a fool in exiting the crypto markets, right now when I consider the bottom is in? Well, the first thing is BTC's over ten years of continuous price growth and evolution, and other hard working cryptos. Yes, it has its ups and downs but over all it seems like creating new higher lows with every year that passes and it's not just about that.

There is this halving that will occur in May, from what I know, when rewards will be cut in half, the value of transactions registered on the BTC network in 2019 is close to 4 trillion dollars, a new ATH from what I remember reading on twitter, there are economical crisis in some countries like Venezuela for example, possible trade wars between China and USA, and political tensions that all together, again in my opinion, will boost the price of BTC a lot in 2020.

Yes, maybe I'm wrong and $7,000 won't last, and BTC will have again a flash crash, but that's just dust in the wind when looking in perspective. From my experience it is really hard to time the exact bottom and top in swing trading cryptos. It's the meat in between that matters, and if I was a fool not selling in July, I would be an even bigger one doing that now, and losing the train towards a higher station than maybe what we had in 2017.

That's what made me decide not to sell anything, although the poor man's mentality told me I should, because it's gonna go lower and I would be able to buy more. What if it doesn't happen this way?

I have a friend who sells consistently, for about three years, this time around, and always comes at a loss. He's the exact example of how fear and greed work in this market. Buys when everyone is hyped about and sells when all are calling for lower lows, BTC going to $2,000, and so on. I am not smarter either for HODLing for too long and not tacking some profits here and there, but I don't want to lose money in this game. I just want to make at least what I could have in 2017 if entering the game earlier and not getting fooled by greed.

I don't believe 2020 will take us to the moon, I don't believe that there won't be good trade chances for the year, but I do believe that we will not see under $6,000 BTC again. That's how I feel like, after watching crypto for a few years. There's too much to it, to much tech, too many factors that would make it a safe haven, too much changes about the internet the way that we know it, and what we consider assets. Imagine that nowadays almost anyone can have access to something similar to stocks, at any hour, without needing a broker, buying and selling 24/7... and making profits out of this internet money, when wisely traded.

That's how I feel 2020 will shape BTC and other cryptos prices. A $20k BTC by July 2020, quite a few altcoins registering over 10x in price growth from their current price levels, and a deflating season beginning by the end of the year. I doubt that we will ever have a $3,000 Bitcoin again and I doubt that the devaluation of the prices after the boom will be as hard as previous bull runs. The history of cryptocurrencies, especially the ones bringing value and actually doing something in the world, is being written as we blog...

Source of images: https://pixabay.com/

Thanks for attention,
Adrian