$17K BTC feels "so natural" right now, pretty much like $30K and $19K felt when we were still at over one trillion in total market cap and I have to say I had the same feeling with $6K and $3K back in 2018. Is Bitcoin about to change course?...
Probably, we don't know that for sure.
If you go to Twitter you will find plenty of analysts charting Bitcoin's path for the foreseeable future but my guess is none will be right. $200K+ targets have once again emerged from the "bear market dawn" flooding my feed and honestly, I don't think BTC will go that high during the next bull phase.
We will have new ATHs, that's for sure, probably in 2025 or something like that, but my take is that BTC will peak at something around $100K. The way I see it the market is not "that exponential anymore". I know, $15K to $100,000 is quite a hell of a return for whoever bought BTC that low($15k) and is able to sell the top, but I refuse to believe in insane targets anymore.
The fact that I have pretty much screwed the past bull market is probably making me be more cautious for the next one. Cautiousness does not mean a lack of confidence though. By all means, I'm sure we are going to have a bull market once again, right around the next halving.
It is, however, always the darkest before dawn...
You don't hear many MSM outlets talking good of BTC anymore, and you don't find that to hedge funds CEOs either, but you can be sure that these fuckers are accumulating. They just don't go on television talking about it.
They're not like the dumb money who loves to brag and show off. Dumb money is pretty much absent from the market right now. All we have left is strong hands that don't place bets anymore. Hence the low trading volumes and the weak volatility.
When the dumb money, and by dumb money I don't necessarily refer solely to retail, were still around, we had lots of volatility and overinflated prices. Now we're near the realized price for BTC and my bet is that all weak hands have probably capitulated already. Most of the individuals that I personally know have exited the market.
These are the type of investors who bought ADA at $3 and DOT at $50. They aren't around here anymore. What we have right now is the battle of strong hands. These ones have a deeper understanding of the market and what these assets really mean. As a side note, I bought ADA at $0.02 back in 2018-2019, but I didn't stick with it till it got to $3.
I actually dumped it way sooner. I have my share of dumbness to talk about as well, but that's not the point of this post.
What I know for sure though is the fact that it is the darkest before the dawn and that's where we're probably at right now. When the market gets rid of all the weak hands it is ready to once again change trends, that's where I see us atm. I'm not saying that the trend will change in a week or two, but I believe the bear market will be over sometime in Q1 to Q2 of 2023.
If you survived the hell fire so far and have managed to build yourself a decent portfolio you should be proud of yourself. Not many have such strong hands.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian
