“The intelligent investor realizes that stocks become more risky, not less, as their prices rise—and less risky, not more, as their prices fall. The intelligent investor dreads a bull market, since it makes stocks more costly to buy. And conversely (so long as you keep enough cash on hand to meet your spending needs), you should welcome a bear market, since it puts stocks back on sale."
Benjamin Graham - The intelligent investor

The world of crypto is often divided into bulls and bears, determined by the phase of the four-year cycles that have historically driven the crypto market's boom and bust. Some, including myself, attribute these cycles to the halvings, while others suggest other factors like DXY might influence these fluctuations, coinciding with the halvings.

Within the crypto community, there are two types of individuals to be avoided at all costs: the perma bulls (moonboys) and the perma bears. These folks resemble broken clocks, occasionally right but mostly mistaken.

I, too, found myself on the wrong side of the market for a considerable part of the previous bear market. I initially refused to accept the $69k top for what it was. But after facing reality, I acknowledged my lack of awareness, learned from my mistake, and moved forward. I became a bull again at the start of the year when BTC soared from $15,000 to $25,000 within weeks.

This confirmed to me that the bear market had ended. Such rallies are rare during bear markets. While some might argue that the COVID crash contradicts this, it was a black swan event. Without it, Bitcoin would not have retraced close to its 2018 bottom. Given that there are no other black swan events on the horizon, I believe the current bull market will unfold similarly to the 2015-2017 one.

However, not the entire market is in a bull phase. Many altcoins have failed to keep pace with Bitcoin, offering an excellent opportunity for those looking to diversify their portfolios. But time is ticking, and the Bitcoin halving is just 193 days away. Let that sink in.

Numerous factors can fuel bearish sentiment, including inflation, recession, wars, and the threat of a world war. I don't believe a world war, as we traditionally understand it, will occur in the modern world. Warmongers can now instigate conflicts in specific regions, such as Syria, Ukraine, and Israel, to pursue their interests. There's plenty of money to be made from remote conflicts too.

While times have changed, people's behavior hasn't changed much. As the quote from the introduction suggests, when the price of a stock (in our case, crypto) falls, we should become more bullish. Unfortunately, the masses often take the opposite stance. To see the bigger picture, you need to connect the dots.

Companies like Ferrari and Honda are starting to accept cryptocurrency payments for their luxury sports cars in the U.S. Some cars will soon feature "metaverse-related" infotainment systems. As the traditional economy faces challenges, a new one is emerging. I don't buy into the Mad Max scenario.

I do believe that the digital economy, which some of us are already part of, is expanding. We may indeed see a $1 million Bitcoin at some point, but it won't happen overnight. It will likely take another three or four cycles to reach that valuation. Cracks in the current economies and business models will continue to fuel the crypto tank. We're only getting started, even after over a decade in this space.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) does not plan to appeal a high-profile ruling involving Grayscale Investments' attempt to convert its flagship fund into a spot Bitcoin ETF. This implies that approvals for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. are imminent. In my opinion, this isn't the time to be bearish on crypto, especially right before the halving takes off, which unfortunately is the case for the majority of investors.

The unbelievable (and often insane) price valuations will return to crypto, but it might take more than a year. It's the same cycle every time, driven by the psychology of the masses. What are your thoughts on the matter?

Thanks for your attention,
Adrian