Being kind of a novice in the crypto world, as I became a crypto hodler since 2017, I haven't witnessed any Bitcoin halving yet. I might get to "be part" of the next one in May 2020 if I live by then and I if will still be interested in crypto at that time, but what triggers me these days and raises important questions is the price predictions for this halving much more than the event itself and the technical behind it.
The recent one that I've seen on a youtube video a few minute ago was of about $250,000 for one Bitcoin by end 2021 to 2022. Man, that's a lot of dollars, or gold ounces, for one virtual coin, isn't it. Not that I don't want to see that happening, because I will probably still own some crypto that will follow the trend and make me wealthier than I currently am, but I think that it's less probable to happen and I will tell you why.
To make it easier to understand I will start with a question: who will buy one Bitcoin for $250,000?. Not your grocery store cashier for sure, because if he would own that much money he wouldn't be a cashier anymore. If not him, then maybe investing funds?... I don't think so. They're smart and won't flush money to the toilet like many of us did in 2017, 2018 and 2019, buying at so over hyped prices. They probably bought at the end of 2018 or why not now...
So, if the middle class won't buy it, the investment funds won't buy it, then who?... Nobody I would say, and I have a reason for that. The reason is that most of the buying that took place after the prior halving was from the pockets of random guys like you and me around the world speculating on it and dreaming of Lambos. Investment funds might have bought some as well but it was generally the guys like you and me that bought massively.
In tune with this weird logic of mine might come a future miner's probable reality as well, that sees his business struggling to survive after a loong bear market, and decides to sell way cheaper than $250k and still stay in business instead of risking to wait for a quarter million dollars Bitcoin that might, or might not, become a reality in 2021 or 2022. Hence I expect miners to put some pressure on Bitcoin's post halving price as soon as it starts moving upwards.
It will for sure hold at a level to cover costs and to generate some profit on the lines but I don't see a $250k Bitcoin in two or three years. I simply don't see the customers for such an asset. Even if there will be a world economy crash and cash as we know it won't be around anymore I assume world governments have already paved the roads for national digital currencies, such as the digital Yuan, and won't use BTC as a world wide currency. The leaders egos are too big to accept just one currency for the whole planet. They might be all digital, the might use blockchain as well, but the will be all national.
I don't see Bitcoin going to zero though, and still consider it the asset of the century, even in the prospect of a new financial crash followed by a new digital economy but I don't see it being valued that high either. The next halving has big chances to boost the price of Bitcoin due to mining costs and rewards cut in half but not that high. I simply don't see a demand for a Bitcoin that expensive...but I might be wrong. That's how I see though such price predictions for BTC's price after the next halving, no matter how many fib levels and curves the analysts use to make us dream. What's your take by the way?
Initially posted on my steemit account:https://steemit.com/steemleo/@acesontop/a-usd250k-bitcoin-for-the-next-halving-s-bull-run-peak-who-will-buy-it
Thanks for attention,