Bienvenidos mis ositos, tu siempre eres mis queridos! (Welcome back little bears you are always my dears!)

What a dank song.

I first heard this song from the craptacular shlockfest that was the Batman & Robin movie soundtrack.

Then I heard it again in the Watchmen movie trailer.

Do markets move in cycles or trends?

Yes

It’s a chicken and egg philosophy question.

It depends on the timeframe, the instrument and game theory positioning

I like to see where we are in the business CYCLE.

Then I look for the winners and losers that will TREND.

Finally I zoom in for deviations that will pullback to relative value to complete the trade CYCLE.

This idea isn’t new and isn’t mine. I adapted Dr. Alexander Elder’s Triple Screen method for my own trading needs.

My macroeconomic outlook leads me to believe that we will experience a mild global recession.

The US economy will be the least stained pair of undies in the laundry hamper. The global powers and their mainstream media puppets will try to keep pushing the China-Taiwan war scenario.

Even without a war, their population implosion coupled with being a political pariah have already causes multinationals to relocate their supply chains to more favorable destinations.

Since China was a source of price deflation and global growth these past few decades, taking them off the table will continue to aggravate consumers. We will continue to see price increases for every day and mid-tier consumer goods.

The supply chain reshuffling will provide good support for certain energy and industrial companies. This should be good for “manly” blue collar jobs.

Finance and tech could be good shorts. We’ve already seen finance and tech companies announce layoffs.

For some reason these two sectors have been overexposed, overhyped, and overpaid in the last two decades.

Finance and tech are NICE to have “overlay” industries. They can enhance a prosperous society. However, when they get too big they become either a cancer or leech value.

Of the two groups, tech workers can probably be repurposed into other industries.

“Knowledge” workers will continue to justify their existence.

Then you have an army of government workers. Ugh, depending on where you live they almost never go away.

People want a return OF their capital, then they will want a return ON their capital.

Almost no crypto or digital asset has broken even (for the 2022 bagholders at least).

Sorry frens the “innovation” investment fad has passed. Although it was amusing to see so many new ways to burn money.

I like using monthly or weekly charts to see if my strategic hunches on the cycle is correct.

Then I will look at daily charts to see which sectors have strong trends.

Finally I will use either a four or one hour chart to finesse my actual buys and sells.

Once a position has been established, a bracket order (some platforms call it an OCO Once Cancels Other) will be placed to create a profit taking order and a stop loss order.

Good luck with your trading and investing this year!

Obviously none of this is formal financial or tax advice. You need to find qualified professionals in your jurisdiction.

Be sharp, stay hungry let’s get that money!