Round one was 20K. Round two puts us back at 5K nearing the halvening. But the real test, the final round is coming...
Face it, Bitcoin is a young asset class. One which just underperformed expectations, failing to act as a safe haven. Bitcoin prices crashed with the market, acting as a risky asset class. Although a hundred million of stolen coins hitting the market was no help atall.
Salomon Brothers research taught on the trading floor the trend is your friend, but technical analysis is a niche joke. Fundamental market shocks, surges and crashes matter. We can say the advent of the futures markets in Chicago have not tamed, but certainly slowed the gyrations of the bitcoin market.
Cryptos under coronavirus showed up on game day as an "everybody knows it's a risky asset class" classic, e.g. emerging market stocks and securities. Bitcoin's price this year showed a correlation this year to buying a high end stereo system for 10,000 USD and trading it back in for 5,000 after a few months.
The brief bitcoin graph history is showing another pattern though -the wild surges of whales and natural events causing a weird spiky pattern over years. Something where cartels of whales slam the price up and down. Where an entire country's worth of assets are stolen and resold to drive the market. War, and natural disasters of man and planet slam prices about as if nations were toys. Yes, the undisputed all time big boy of world class cartel's efforts to toy with geopolitical assets, we give you: the price of oil.
Technical analysis goes out the window when continents of whales play the price fixing game.
Look at those non-organic spikes and crashes. Seems familiar in some way, right? Now with Putin saying Russia can survive with oil at $25 per barrel, we see a whale wall set up, not in crypto but in oil. This whale wall won't last, can't last, but doing damage, some of which will last. USA capacity is staggered.
Germany is forced into finally doing a Eurobond, long train coming. The dollar and yield for Treasuries hammer down into unforseen territory. Unanticipated side effects of negative yields coming. This looks like the big fat giant " we are all Venezuela" moment where the dollar, euro and pound behave like Zimbabwe: the Austrian school of econ's nightmare of a cruel joke on the people
So, Bitcoin just failed round two after winning round one with the initial bull market. Due to Bitcoin's youth, though, this is a three round Olympic contest. The real test is coming. The world is going to have to go into an absolute orgy of money printing, trying to inject liquidity into anything that once moved. This will follow on the incandescent money printing of the Red Ponzi, our pals in Wuhan growing their economy over 60X in 20 years. If ever a classic case will be played out for Bitcoin to move against currency debasement on a global level, here it comes. Stay tuned for Bitcoin to grind up again, with the strong hands someday squeezing the shorts in an epic round three socko finish.