Great DCA experiment - report XV (weeks 61-70 +5)

By Lyokoheros | Great DCA experiment | 2 Mar 2023


So another long wait... but there were several reasons for that. Besides my usual disorganization and problems with time management. First of all, there was... a bit of chaos in my portfolio recently(I'll explain later what I mean). Secondly when I was about to write it, then it came to me that these reports need some big changes - so this time I will start that one with a section that explains them. The third thing is I just realized that CoinTraffic seemingly changed it service policies, and thus won't be of use to me any longer... and also I actually did one measurement kinda wrong the whole time... but without further ado let's get to the actual content(well... with some initial explanation You can just skip entire first part if You didn't want to read them - it includes also few bits about the future though).

And if You don't know what I mean and what this Great DCA experiment is You can check out the introductory post. If You don't know what are these catch-up purchases check out "Catch-up purchases" section of this post. (Also remember it's not financial advice - You are the only one responsible for Your own finance and any risk You take!). 

The Change and reasons for it (+other explanations)

So, as I said there will be changes in these reports from now on. I realized something... something that kinda hide in the back of my mind from a long time already. These reports - despite giving me some satisfaction and some level of information about the state of my portfolio in periodical snapshots... - were relatively tedious to write, and not that much informative actually. There was quite a bit of repetition and not that much information. 

Therefore I decided to go with the new formula. First of all, I think I will give You a few sentences about what I think about the current market situation and what it meant for my assets - if I think it really do matter and isn't just information noise.

Then instead of writing so much about percentages of BTC, ETH and other altcoins, I will give You the most important information in an easily readable table (this time also explaining it a bit more, but it should be quit intuitive to read... but finding good way to fit it there also add more delays to this report...) with minimal commentary (at least as much minimalistic as I can make it... if You know anything about me You know minimalism in written text is not my specialty - on the contrary textwalls are my special talent) - I mean what's the point of telling You about something that You see on the table already? (I mean expect when I want to point Your attention to something, but I will be also highlighting some things in the table itself)

You will also get some charts in that part but... the problem with this is that now CoinTraffic suddenly (at least I didn't notice when it become like that... maybe it was from the very beginning, but it doesn't matter much now) stop being fully free. I mean it kinda is buuut... free plan allows only for 200 transactions. And this portfolio (the part which this report covers that is) consists already from 225 transactions (so as You see there HAS to be a change at some point, as even if there was a limit before it has to be higher), so I can't really add more (at least I did add all that this report covers before this change on Cointraffic takes place) without going to paid plan... which would be 10€ a month... it should not be something that would eat up all the gains (the investment in this portfolio is a bit more than 120€ month, and my expected gains are at least 2-5 times the investment... 5-10 times and more would be enormous success already... but going lover than at least slight profits after taking inflation into account - so it already should be more than 10€ monthly as I doubt inflation for all this time could be single digit percentage...) but still I don't think it's really worth it. So I will have to find another solution. Perhaps just use some google spreadsheets + using some API to get the prices for every day, or perhaps another similar service... or even create my own solution. I mean I am a programmer after all, so perhaps I could make a suitable solution in Symfony(my main framework)... but there are at least a few problems to solve with that solution... so I don't know yet what I will go with eventually.

The next part usually was about explaining my specific choices of the altcoins.... but for some time already there is not so much to say actually. It was mostly repeating the same things which I was talking about the given cryptocurrency last time, with some addition of how the price was compared to my other prices... but there isn't a lot to say about trying to buy a coin when it is the best price opportunity (so the price is as low as possible... best case scenario is purchase below the last lower purchase... of course that only work before we would go into another bear market) and there are not many new coins anymore... 
So I will also give the purchases as a simple list (or rather another table, which would also include all catch-up purchases), and... instead of prices with the QUANTITY of that altcoin I was able to buy. I will also add specific values for ETH and BTC bought in each purchase packet. Well there still be some explanation from time to time in case when there were some important new reasons to buy specific coins at these moments (but spoiler: there aren't any in that report) and of course, I would shortly cover the new coins whenever some would appear. Also sometimes, just sometimes I would like to give some final words after all these parts. But I'm not planning on doing it often. And I will try to keep it short (something which I definitely didn't succeed with this explanation... but I had quite a lot thing to sort out and tell You)

Also as I said my portfolio was in a bit of chaos... it is in a way reason for something I was mentioning in the previous reports about moving with most purchases to Binance. Because of how little precision is possible there I couldn't exactly always (by that I mean: nearly never) buy crypto for exactly 10€... because I could only buy for more, overpay or place offers below the current price. I was usually doing the last thing, sometimes first(or even a slight combination of both). But at the same time... I got a bit too greedy and did sometimes increase a bit more quantity of crypto to buy, thus lowering the price on my purchase offer... which sometimes has led to either waiting quite long for a given cryptocurrency to reach that price... or even for it to entirely escape me. This way besides the missing purchases I already have to catch up I have some... partial purchases. Like 3 times Bitcoin purchase which wasn't made, 5 cases for Ethereum, and 2 altcoins that I didn't manage to buy(+ I skipped 2 more weeks by mistake not even trying to make a purchase...). They would supplement the regular purchases on a first come first serve rule. Meaning for example if now I would have 72 complete purchases, 2 more Ethereum purchases and 4 more altcoin purchases then the first bought bitcoin would be counted towards the 73th-week purchase batch, and next Ethereum for 75th and next altcoin would be for 77th week. I know it's a bit messy but... well we could say I tried a bit too hard to optimize my DCA purchases (I may generally not go below the 4-hour Bollinger line but it still didn't always reach it...). 
Anyway because of that it took a bit longer to reach the 70th-week purchase than it should have. Now I think that I wouldn't immediately make purchases for it, I think I would keep my offers open and wait for further development... even if it will mean the price would escape me even further... then well that's just a few purchases and I still do the usual, so in the end that won't matter this much(and who knows, perhaps I will see the decrease and buy for even lower prices?). 70 weeks (ok, actually more... as that doesn't count all the needed catchups, but still) is still not even halfway through the experiment I think(that isn't a set number of weeks after all is all about going with it through at least one full cycle).

And last thing... often did I put other information not really concerning the experiment itself... but mostly just to say when I hope the project there to be published and then saying I didn't manage to make it... so I decided I generally won't be doing anymore. But the fact I don't write about one of the projects doesn't mean I abandon it.... it just means what my previous messages meant: that for one reason to another, I wasn't able to make a post for that yet. If I would like to revoke any of them... then I would most likely write about it. 

To finish this part I would say that I also have some small projects regarding the ongoing Lent period (similar to what I do before but with some differences... and some more posts - perhaps even the first bilingual one... but more about it later when I will actually start... I planned it initially to begin on Ash Wednesday... but it was as successful plan as usual :/) and I will leave You with the list of other projects and subprojects/posts I got in mind for my blog (bolding up the ones that are actually connected with the DCA portfolio, aka the Great DCA experiment project, the less likely project which are more on "maybe" side - and which revoking I don't even know If I would declare... as they mostly are things I still could return to later; also for any I would sometimes give some explanation in brackets) - the list goes like this:

  • The lent-oriented project (I will keep what exactly I mean as a surprise it most likely be the first one)
  • The fandom/pop-culture-oriented series (which I called "Wonders of the Digital sea", title which - among other things - I'll explain in its initial post - the next ones would mostly be only loosely connected with each other, and will cover a wide range of topics and universes/franchises) which include (but is not limited to):
    • My fandom works (the fandom universes I working on and their description, future maybe also english translations)
    • Minecraft series (the hidden lore and future updates - or more like my dream Minecraft update path... the latter also will probably be what the first fandom-related post will be about considering upcoming minecraft 1.20)
    • Code Lyoko-related series
    • Pokemon-related series (new eeveelutions ideas, theories, my own made-up+- region...)
    • reviews (and not only) of different series (often relatively old ones - I like to return to old productions, as sort of "pop-cultural archeology"... or just to see how good the series I once liked hold up nowadays - with a calculated score to create ultimate series tier list) + perhaps some theories
    • Exploring multiverses possibilities (perhaps also for Your requests!)
    • 10 fictional characters I admire most
    • ...and many others! (including more general ones... and maybe songs... I mean my own made-up versions of existing songs which I change to fit into the context of some of my fandom universes(people often call things like this "a parody", which is unbelievably strange at least, as these are hardly ever disrespectful or ridiculing source material in any way...)... though I make them in Polish version and translating a song is a lot of work so I don't know...)
  • 10 altcoins most likely to still be successful in future cycles (kind of summary of which projects in my DCA portfolio I find fundamentally best and most promising(excluding BTC and ETH). I will update it about once a year to find out how my view will chang and if that would even happen)
  • More deep analyses of projects in my portfolio (one at a time, I will mostly focus on OTHER than BTC and ETH)
  • "The lazy investor" philosophy/strategy (aka time and energy saving one)
  • Some more entries to Crypto Tips and Tricks (at least one, more isn't actually very likely...)
  • Blockchain programming learning diary (if I will even have time to learn that... but I hope I will)
  • Alexander Hamilton vs Satoshi Nakamoto rap battle analysis

You may also let me know which of these You are most interested in in the comments ;) 

My view on the current market state

So, nowadays the market is definitely higher than at times of previous report, it is not so bearish anymore - bitcoin rose from around 16K$ to around 20-25K$ - it's visibly bigger price range now but it seemingly can't break out of it... and for all, I know when the price is constantly retesting the same level... it means it accumulates strength for next price action. So I expect that whatever happens - if it goes down or up - it will be a big change... the bigger the later it happens (or rather the more time ~25K$ level will be tested). For me, it's hard to really say which way it will go... I'm far from being a master of technical analyses, so I spare You my amateurish analyses there... but I think it may actually go for another big correction before it will really go higher up. But it's just a feeling (with a bit of what some crypto YouTubers I watch theorize about) and kinda what I'm hoping for. I would like to get some more good purchase opportunities, so for now I don't do any catch-up purchases... even though it may be a mistake, but who really knows? Only time will tell. 

Also despite the recent attack on Binance, I don't really think it will affect this exchange that much in the long term... I think it may just result in some more opportunities to buy Binance coin(which I still consider a very good investment). And the commotion with all these recent attacks may be something that will cause the incoming big correction... or maybe not but I think we will get to know that in the next few weeks, or maybe even sooner. 

Current Portfolio State

Portfolio state as of 1 march 2023, 22:37 of Polish local time (which is Central European Time CET/UTC+01:00)

State of my portfolio for this report

*Terra Luna is here for historical reasons, as it was one of the coins I did choose, though its next purchases were discontinued already and it doesn't count towards a portfolio cap of 25 altcoins other than ETH.

So as I say, this time I will do a little guide to this table above. It may seem a bit much, but it's because it collects all the most important information. The meaning of the column is as follows: 

  • Crypto and Symbol - both the name of the cryptocurrency/token/project and its symbol... in some cases, I didn't really know if cryptocurrency of the crypto project would be better name (also If I would like to go with the project, then wouldn't I have to write Binance smart chain or Binance instead of Binance coin? etc.), and from what I know cryptocurrency is a valid name only for currency which has it's native, own blockchain (like Bitcoin, Ethereum or Binance Coin), and when it does not is just a token... well, in general, I rather try to go more with currencies than tokens, but sometimes it's not so easy to tell (like MATIC has it's own blockchain but it also kinda work on/for Ethereum... so how this definition applies to it?) so I simply go with naming this column "crypto". The symbol is easy. It's BTC for Bitcoin, ETH for Ethereum, BNB for Binance Coin etc.
  • Purchases - it is simply the number of times I bought a given crypto. It is also the main way of sorting cryptos on the list. First all those with higher amounts of purchases (with Bitcoin and Ethereum having sure first places, and also fixed order), then it is the more recent the purchase was the lower among cryptos with the same purchases that one goes - when I make a purchase and add it there, the crypto always goes to the lowest position with it's new purchase amount. (For example, if my next purchase would be ICP, then it wouldn't change its place, just the 1 in purchase column would become 2, as it was the higher from all cryptos with 1 purchase, but it it would be KNC it would go just between AVAX and ICP)
  • Amount - is the amount of given cryptocurrency. Does include only the amount bought, without the amount got from stacking or flexible saving etc. Which I of course use for all coins I can - after all I'm not intend to sell them in near future anyway...
  • Avg. token price - the actual average price of every token I bought in euro[€] (full quantity in DCA portfolio/total money used to purchase(10*amount of purchases))
  • Avg. purchase price - the average of prices I bought the crypto for. Simply calculated as the sum of all the prices/amount of purchases. It probably wouldn't even be there... if not for one of my mistakes. I mean I wrongly used it as the actual average price of a token until I started to read that report and by accident realized I was wrong the whole time. And as much as it is still some indicator (it says how on average the price... but doesn't take into account how many I did buy... and the lower the price was the more I bought, as it was always for ~10€) it is not that good... but still I did use it as one of my main indicators when I tried to choose which coin to buy, so it historically kinda is important for that portfolio, even though it can differ quite a lot with the actual average (like for Stacks when the actual average is about a half of average prices...). I don't know maybe I will skip that one in the future. It was never actually calculated for Bitcoin and Ethereum, and I don't think it's actually worth it...
  • Current Price - current market price of a given asset, currently backward engineered from amount and value. 
  • Value - is the current value of a given token in euro[€]. By current I mean taken as a snapshot at some point of writing the report. The time will be always given. Though up to now it was just calculated by CoinTraffic. now I won't have the possibility to use it anymore... so I probably would have to use some different option or just calculate it manually (which would mean the prices won't all be calculated at exactly the same time, which may lead to some inaccuracies, especially in next fields...
  • % of portfolio - basically how big part of the portfolio a given asset is, it is calculated both for each type of investment (BTC, ETH, other altcoins, which all add up to 100%) and for altcoins separately (which always add up to the percentage that other altcoins category has). 
  • change from previous report - this indicates how much the percentage of an asset did change since the last report. And because for now I only really tracked that information to main categories (BTC, ETH, other altcoins) only they will have it now, but in the future report also all altcoins will have this statistic.
  • % of portfolio per purchase - this is the "% of portfolio" statistic but in relation to the number of purchases. It is perhaps the best measurement of the performance of given crypto in my portfolio (so for example if one coin makes up 1% portfolio with its 1 purchase, and another makes up 2% of the portfolio but has 2 purchases, then both would have this measurement at 1%, both perform equally good. Or in case the second one would have 4 purchases, then it would be lower than the first as it would have been only 0,5% of the portfolio per purchase)
  • balance - how much the value changed from the input value. For example, if 50€ was used to buy a given coin, and now its value in the portfolio is 75€ means the balance is 50% (meaning: 50% gain) but if the value of this asset would be 30€, then the balance would be -40% (meaning: 50% loss).

Also for the table in every report the time at which the data for it was taken would be written. There is also one position for all other altcoins combined, though it doesn't have entries in all the columns as not all would actually make sense there. As You see there is also a position to indicate the overall performance of the portfolio at the very end.

And out of all 3 categories (BTC, ETH, other altcoins) the one which has the biggest dominance in my portfolio (the biggest value) will be boldened up, and the same will go to one of them with biggest change of what share in my portfolio it is. Few altcoins which are the biggest share of the portfolio (to about half of them all, so most likely making up 15-20% of my portfolio when combined), few coins (including BTC and ETH, as it measures average performence of any coin in the portfolio no matter amount of the purchases) with biggest percentage per purchase and up to few with biggest overal gains in value (balance column) will also be highlighted by boldening up.

And as You see best-performing altcoins are STX, BNB, ATOM, and MATIC (making up 18,2% of my portfolio together, with STX being itself over 7%), but when comparing it to number of the purchases things change a bit. STX is still clear favorite (with 1,09% of portfolio per purchase!), and other mentioned previously coins are itself performing better than ETH and BTC now (0,43% and 0,44% respectively), but only one does almost as well as they both results added up: GRT with 0,83%. MATIC with 0,76% is the third all else are below 0,65 but still many altcoins are at least close to BTC or ETH scores. Though just a few have a positive balance (all the mentioned, with STX outclassing all with it's over 100% gains, though GRT's over 60% and MATIC's almost 50% isn't bad either), some have even quite massive losses - around 80-90%. Overall the portfolio is now at -a 12,2% loss. Not so bad in current situation and definitely much better than about 41% loss from the previous report. 

(probably I won't really write a summary like that in the next report it is just to let You better understand the information in the table)

Also here are the chart, which presents the distribution of value in the portfolio (by coins):

Distribution of value in portfolio by cryptocurrency

and the overall portfolio performance over time(sadly it may not be used anymore in next reports as these are generated  by coin traffic... but well maybe I will do some other charts instead... it's still to be decided):

Chart of portfolio value over time

(The bright greenish part at the bottom is the value of money invested, and the bright bluish on top is value of the portfolio. The most important part is in the middle and is blue on gains and red on losses.) 

New Purchases

Purchases for weeks 61-70

As You see in the table above each row describe one of the weeks or catch-up purchases - together referred by me as a purchase batch (and as You see in this report there weren't any new coins, nor catch-up purchases). we have the following columns: 

  • Purchase batch - either which week the row is describing or which catch-up purchase (in format: [in the report(globally)]).
  • Chosen altcoin - the altcoin chosen to buy in a given batch, described with its symbol. 
  • Altcoin quantity - the quantity of chosen altcoin bought in a given batch.
  • ETH quantity - the quantity of Ethereum bought in this purchase batch
  • BTC quantity - the quantity of bitcoin bought in this purchase batch

Final words

So this time I have just one thing to say or rather to ask... what do You think of this new formula? Do You like it or not? If yes You may let me know in the comments and by liking the article... or if You think this new formula is a mistake and old one should return, then You may also let me know in the comment or by disliking this article. (Also if you have some idea what would be better way to put there some table from google spreedsheets than what I did there you can write it too)

 

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