I initially planned this post for the previous weekend but... well it just so happened that it wouldn't be full week after last purchase as I was a bit late with it, so I decided to move it for this last weekend... but it still took me way more time that I expected to write it so not wanting to postpone it to next weekend I decided to publish it now even though it almost is the next weekend... Also there was 3 catch-up purchases since last report... and it's already a year since I started the experiment... but without further ado let's get to the report!
And if You don't know what I mean and what this Great DCA experiment is You can check out the introductory post. If You don't know what are these catch-up purchases check out "Catch-up purchases" section of this post. (Also remember it's not financial advice - You are the only one responsible for Your own finance and any risk You take!).
Base investment - BTC and ETH - and current portfolio value + a word about current way of buying
Even recently I was saying about prices going down... but we all know, that since that they dropped down even lower, sometimes even with BTC dumping below 20k$ and ETH below 1k$. This, of course, means also drastic decreases of altcoins prices, as... right now there's no "winners" in my portfolio, even on BTC and ETH I have now over 35% and over 45% losses respectively. Only 7 coins do better than them (BNB, MATIC, ATOM, SOLANA, GRT, NEAR, and LINK(barely)), though most of them either have recent purchases (ATOM, MATIC, LINK, BNB) or was recently added to the portfolio(GRT, Near), while remaining 12 do worse, with over 50% losses, biggest losers among them (with over 80% loss) are DAR, COMP, ICP (and ADA barely escape that title with 76%, which is still biggest lost than the rest, as other losses don't exceed 65%), so it is generally bad, overall my losses are ~55%. How bad it looks can be seen on this graph of my portfolio value over time:
(light blue for the value of cryptocurrencies, green is for invested money, but the really interesting is the next part, the difference of these two(that's why money invested is given as a negative number) and for that darker blue is profit and reddish is losses)
This situation happening right now isn't so much expected to me (I didn't anticipate such losses before 2023), but I still think in the long run it will be ok. Even better than just okay. And perhaps this dump before the final ATH of that cycle (at least I think it's before...). And who knows, maybe this situation will show me sooner which coins weren't the best choices? Like pretty much Luna wasn't, but can it be applied to other big losers? Only time will tell.
Anyway I think that more of the project I choose will rise again than not, so I'm still going to invest in them, and use this opportunity to buy more (You know how the famous quote goes...) which in some years should prove to be best decision I could take. Now it's really time for accumulation and price averaging.
And talking about accumulation... how the structure of my portfolio looks right now? Well as one could except now Bitcoin - even though these dumps that scare out many is performing best in general making out 35,96% of my portfolio, Ethereum still is doing relativelu good - 31,04%, but still a bit worse than altcoins which together make 33% (so just slightly less than it would result from being 33,(3)% of investment), also two altcoins which make most of this value are MATIC and ATOM(so one of most often bought ones) which make up almost 11% of entire portfolio, and almost 15% with BNB, my third altcoin currently. That's quite a big difference since the last 2 reports, though as it was only 27,06% for Bitcoin, 28,87% and 44,07% for altcoins two reports ago, and 37.87% for Bitcoin, 38,96% for Ethereum, and only 23,17% for altcoins. This also shows, that some altcoins already kinda recover... or maybe rather their worst dumps are behind us as somehow Bitcoin and Ethereum managed to do bigger ones recently. Still performing relatively well though... well situation sure is dynamic and it's really hard to say when the prices will go up again. Anyway here You can more or less see the distribution of my portfolio(total value of currencies is displayed incorrectly as I once said, it's not total value invested, total value invested is exactly 10*number of trades, so in this case 1290€):
Also a little note about how I buy... it turns out that when I have bought some USDT instead of BUSD in last weeks, there was additional fee for purchases unlike when I use BUSD... so I think I will return soon to that stablecoin. Well at least sending money for more purchases in advance let me save more on the transfer fee...
But that is not most important note. The most important note is something, which I didn't fully realize how inconvenient it is for that experiment at the start. I mean the fact, that there is only one fixed precision with which You can buy coins. Meaning in most cases I can't actually buy for 10€(or rather its BUSD/USDT equivalent, including tranfer fee) at current price, because it would require me to buy with way more precision that is set for that asset (which is even more ridiculous considering the fact, that fee are at level far below the precision... by a few decimal places). This let me to choose one of three options:
- overpaying (buying for price higher than currently on the market... which would be quite stupid)
- buying for a bit less than 10€ worth of BUSD/USDT and maybe more in next purchase...
- put an offer, which is first offer below current price and which let me buy for exact 10€ worth of BUSD/USDT
I choose the last option... well sometimes I become a little greedy and have choosen not the first possible offer but some more below... which sometimes went pretty wrong. Like when I lost chance to buy ETH for about ~950$ and eventually buy it for ~1100$. Anyway... considering recent events surrounding Celsius... I think I just for safety will keep my purchases to Binance just in case, but later... who know maybe I decide to go back to Swissborg, at least with some purchases.
New coins: GRT and NEAR. More accumulation of LUNA(and what's with that token on my DCA portfolio), STX, KDA, ALGO, LINK, ATOM, MATIC and BNB
Before I go into further details I must say, that most of these 8 weeks was mainly about "for which coin it is best opportunity to buy"(as the opportunity was for... pretty much all coins), so most of the time I would just repeat that. For some, I still give more info of course.
So at 33rd were my first purchase of a new coin, that coin was GRT, token of The Graph decentralized protocol, and what it's doing is indexing and querying blockchains, similarly to what Google does with the Internet... so it's like Google for blockchain. (Well except for any ideological or just plain stupid (like what they do with YouTube they own...) actions that actual Google does... at least as far as I know) So that is a very promising coin, a project which may become of on most crucial in the crypto space, similarly like now Bitcoin or Ethereum.
Right after the 33rd purchase I made my first catch-up purchase and bought Luna at a price of about 0,5 BUSD for one token. Yeah, that may not have been the smartest decision, but still, Luna's doom wasn't so obvious yet (at least to me) and I still thought it was a temporary crisis... now I know it wasn't and it's very questionable if Luna will ever recover, even after this hard fork... which may not matter this much as it seems I make this purchase late enough to not get these about 20 tokens for a new version of Luna... so even if the new token recover I won't benefit from that purchase with that...
So what I will do? Well, I did already take some profits (with the part of Luna I bought not for that portfolio), and considering I together put 70-80€ in LUNA and take out ~120 BUSD... I'm still on positive balance with all my actions with that coin - including a little "crypto lottery", so investing 10€ when the price was at an absurdly low-level buying almost 73K LUNA tokens (I called it lottery because it was really a lottery if it ever recovers to price even near the range of 1€, but if it will... well this 10€ could become few thousands or even more... if not... I don't lose this much) and making some trading with the coin when it was extremely low (resulting in both getting 8 BUSD and in increasing the number of tokens(to 96,7K).
So in the end I will not consider LUNA part of the project any longer - in the sense that I will not count it toward the 25 altcoin cap and won't buy new tokens (at least as long as the situation will prove it fully recover and will truly be a reliable project) BUT I will not sell it either. I'm on profits anyway, so I don't see a point in selling it for such low prices and getting only about 10€. If that means I will keep it forever... that's not such a big deal either.
34th week was for me time to accumulate more Stacks (STX), my 3rd purchase of that coin - which surely is important part of my portfolio as it let me accumulate more Bitcoin by stacking it
35th week meant the second purchase of Kadena(KDA) - a potential "Solana killer" (which - jokingly saying - try to beat Ethereum in being "Ethereum Killer"...). As much as I don't consider it the most important part of my portfolio and I could easily show coins in which I believe more (it doesn't mean I think it's a bad coin. It's just the fact that being good or bad coin isn't a binary classification it's rather a spectrum) it still was a perfect opportunity to averaging the price (almost halving it...) which after all is the main point of DCA strategy.
A few days later I made another catch-up purchase... which happen to include new coin, namely NEAR. NEAR is a decentralized platform for DeFi, DAOs and NFTs with a set of developer tools, which aims to be secure and scalable. You can read more about it on its official website. It has also 5th place in the network effect ranking I mentioned a few reports ago (after ETH, MATIC, DOT and Solana, and before ATOM)
36th week means a purchase of ALGO. It was my 3rd purchase of that coin and yet it gives me over 60% of my ALGO tokens. So that was really a great opportunity. And IMO coins that increase the usability of Bitcoin are a great thing in general.
37th week was for me time to finally purchase LINK for the second time. It's quite an important project after all, and yet a bit forgot... and it was time when the perfect opportunity to buy more arisen.
For both 38th and 39th week, I purchased ATOM - which I explained why I think is a good coin in the last report - which also makes it the most often purchased coin in my portfolio with 5 purchases, exceeding even DOT(and MATIC) with its 4 purchases. But what can I say these were pretty great opportunities to buy this coin.
And between these main purchases, I bought MATIC, for the 4th time Already, but that is a coin with probably the greatest network effect (not counting Ethereum) so I will still look out for another good opportunity to buy it.
My last purchase, the one for the 40th week was BNB, a coin which prove to be one of the more stable in this crisis (at least it seems so to me, as even now it isn't at much lower price than my previous purchases...) and anyway, is one which may be one of most safe investments... and that was my 3rd purchase of BNB, but I surely will try to make another one with opportunity good enough.
Thoughts after year of experiment
So it's already a year since I started this project. Kinde a weird feeling as It seems to me like it was not that long ago... and yet I managed to invest almost 1300€ (well actually more but that report covers invesment only to the point of reaching 1290€). For most part it seemed to work perfectly as I was on profits, even big ones, but now when the market is down I experience big, over 50% losses, and also one coin from my portfolio (LUNA) got practically zeroed, and not being likely to rise again... things I didn't expect to happen at that point, I expected for bitcoin to make the second peak, a brand new ATH (which I expect to be around 150-320K$, but some more optimistic people said even about 500K$) of this ending cycle... and only after that I expected to experience some major loses.
Actually, I still think that the predictions saying we hit that second peak till December this year are correct, but with the whole situation with the war in Ukraine on the one hand and claims about "supercycle" on the other nothing is sure. We can just continue to grow after current dumps. Or we can not make a second peak (meaning the previous cycle already did end and we are already at the start of new one), so we would have to prepare for long bear market before we will go for next ATH... which who knows, maybe will reach 1,000,000$ or more? It may sound crazy, but if anyone would tell You in 2010 that Bitcoin will exceed 10K $ You most likely would call this person crazy too(and maybe even if that would be just before bull run to ATH from 2017...)... and now when bitcoin is going sideways at about twice as much many people seems to be panicking that it is the end of bitcoin and the end of crypto.
Of course things, which are bad for bitcoin and crypto in general, happen and future is uncertain... but making a few step back and looking from bigger perspective, thus avoiding panic won't hurt anyone. (Well except maybe for that time that I waited with buying Bitcoin, being afraid of becoming a victim of FOMO, and as a result only bought it at a higher place, as it never returned to price I was initially planning to buy it(about 10k))
Furthermore, it seems that now is not the time for saying things about big future prices, as now they seem only a distant dream... but the immense surge in the value of hi-tech/web/IT-related companies like Amazon or Google was also unexpected to most. Will cryptocurrencies repeat their feat? Well, that is not sure but is pretty much possible. They are new breakthroughs, a new innovations that can change the world... so maybe instead of asking "if" we should be asking "which". As in which crypto will do it. Because there are just too many of them for all to succed. It will be... maybe 1%? I mean considering how many coins there are in general that would still be a big number, but it also shows how careful You have to be with picking a long-term projects to invest in.
Of course there will be mistakes while trying to answer that question - like my mistake with Luna. But...
That's kinda why the experiment is built in that way and not another. There are Bitcoin and Ethereum - two biggest cryptocurrencies, which are not likely to fail if the cryptocurencies as a whole wouldn't (which imo is not likely... at least in situations when the potential losses from investing in crypto will have any meaning anyway), but others... there is really hard to tell which will really stand the test of time. I try to pick the best ones but I know I can make mistakes. Either as choosing a bad coin which gets zeroed or as not choosing a very good coin that would skyrocket as none other in my portfolio (and will not be just short living project not good for anything more than multiplying money and leave). That is a risk kinda calculated in that project. That's why I have many different altcoins which could have a bright future and I believe that profits from these which will succeed, in the end, will surpass the loss of those that will fail. And I never know if the coin which seemingly failed will not rise again and become the biggest of all winners.
I was a bit surprised with how much all is going down now and how unlikely hitting ATH in December now seems, and even more with LUNA downfall (though some may say it was predictable, and they may even be right...). But I was expecting that some surprises will come along the way. Sometimes good(after all... if the price goes down that is good news as long as it will recover - because it means it is only an opportunity to buy), sometimes a bad one.
And with all that in mind, I still consider the DCA strategy in the way I use it in the experiment - BTC + ETH + varying, promising altcoins - the safest approach in the long term. I believe this way lets me balance out risk and possible rewards in the best way possible. But that's always for everyone to decide him-/herself. I think it is a good strategy and I will continue using it in the next years - even though now it seems to bring me losses (and may even do so in the next 2-3 years... but it should all be worth it in the and) - but before You start to use it too You must judge for yourself if it is good for You. After all, You'll be investing Your own money and it's all Your responsibility to make decisions. It's up to You, not some random guy on the internet - like me. It's your responsibility to judge if the strategy one person takes is good also for You. After all, everyone has a different background, situation, different amount of spare money, and different needs. What I think is good for me may not be as good for You. I hope these reports will be helpful to some - either by showing some potentially good coin to invest in, showing good ways to invest, projects to research or something else - but in the end, it all comes down to Your action, and what YOU will do with the information I give to You. Even if everyone is kinda doomed to making decisions that are to some extent blind - as no one really knows the future.
What's with another posts
Well, sadly my predictions about how much time I'll have and how good I'll be able to handle it... even writing that post take me way longer than I did expect... I had to sort out some things in my head about what I want to write... which kinda applies to future posts too. Also... there are at least a few issues in my private life that kinda brings me down. And recently I already have to kinda suspend some of my fandom/personal projects... I was even going to write that I have some other crises in the last few weeks but actually... the longer I think about it the more I think that for some years already it's not like I got one crisis after another, but like I'm constantly in crisis with just some short breaks... but enough of this depressive talk. I really make to finally bring myself to go for therapy and take up myself more, and prioritise that... so hopefully in the long run I will be able to deliver more quality content and really do it more often or at least really regularly.
But it also means You'll have to wait some time longer. I know I could just say I try to start these new posts (that apply to both crypto- and non-crypto blog posts) in a week or two, but... despite I will try to push things forward I just can't promise anything. You know, I prefer to be honest instead of disappointing You with unsure promises... again. I hope You'll understand.
So till the next post! Whatever and whenever it will be.
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