Many people on Twitter talk about metrics they don't know. When they have to evaluate the listing price of a token, they make the serious mistake of comparing the FDV between different tokens. The FDV is a very important metric in the long term but for the listing of a token it has no meaning. With a simple example I will show you how fallacious it is to reason with the FDV to hypothesize a price. What is important for the listing price is the initial circulating amount (which affects the market cap, not the FDV!).

Arbitrum has a FDV of 5.5B, Starknet has a FDV of 3.8B, Zksync has a FDV of 2.5B, etc. If I launched a token you would never say that it could reach those FDV figures because I am nobody and I don't have the capital (funding) of those projects. In reality, it is very simple to manipulate the price and obtain a higher FDV. Assume the creation of a token with 1M initial supply and 20B (total supply). If my token was worth $0.50 (500k market cap so very easy to reach)...I would have a FDV of 10B! In fact Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) = Current Price x Total Supply ($0.50 x 20B=10B). If, before listing, you were to "guess" the price of my token by comparing it with the FDV of Arbitrum or Zksync you would make a serious mistake. You would estimate a price 100-1000 times lower by assuming a FDV of 1M or less. In reality my token would have a FDV of 10B (reachable with little capital!).

Ultimately estimating the listing price by comparing the FDV of two tokens is a serious mistake because it can lead you to both overestimate and underestimate the price with completely different orders of magnitude. A correct method for estimating the price is to compare the market cap of 2 cryptos, as the listing price is influenced by the initial circulation (not by the total supply from which the FDV is calculated). What I mean is that the total supply is irrelevant, what matters is the initial circulation. If you estimate a market cap of 1B for a token:

1) if the initial supply is 100M you will have a price of $10.
2) if the initial supply is 1B you will have a price of $1.
3) if the initial supply is 10B you will have a price of $0.10.

If instead you do not use the market cap but estimate a FDV of 10B (because a similar project has that FDV) and calculate the price from the FDV, you will get completely wrong results depending on the initial supply.

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