Investment Disclaimer:

• I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
• Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
• This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post

1. Top 3 Good News for LUNA HODLERS !!!

• Over 160 projects will launch on Terra (LUNA) early next year
  Statistic as of 2021-10-31 04:41 AM EDT: 41 positive votes, 1 negative vote

• Terra Implements Columbus 5 Upgrade, Trends Positive, But Fails To Reach ATH
  Statistic as of 2021-10-31 04:41 AM EDT: 24 positive votes, 0 negative vote

• Terra’s Interoperability Updates Could Help LUNA Soar
  Statistic as of 2021-10-31 04:41 AM EDT: 25 positive votes, 2 negative votes

2. How Terra Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

As of 31 Oct 2021, Terra has made a cumulative return of 18102.51% since Jan 2020 and 6439.26%  since Jan 2021. It is currently the  greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.

3. Technical Analysis on Terra

3.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when LUNA1 is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of LUNA1 (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of LUNA1 (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 31 Oct 2021, VWAP is suggesting that LUNA is retracting to its normal momentum.

3.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of LUNA1 closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that LUNA1 is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that LUNA1 is losing momentum. 

As of 31 Oct 2021, MACD is suggesting that LUNA is losing momentum.

3.3. Bollinger Band

Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of LUNA1
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of LUNA1 on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of LUNA1 from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of LUNA1

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that LUNA1 is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that LUNA1 is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 31 Oct 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that LUNA is trading at its fair value level.

3.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that LUNA1 is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that LUNA1 is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 31 Oct 2021, RSI is suggesting that LUNA is trading at its fair value level.

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge holds a neutral stance on the short-term price movement of LUNA, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

4. Terra Risk Profile

Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Terra defined above, LUNA seems to trade at a similar risk level on 30 Oct 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 20 Oct 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at -19.15% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

5. Price Simulation for Terra

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual LUNA1 price movement over the last week ?

Over the last 7 days, LUNA has been trading at the median price range of quantdoge simulations, indicating that LUNA was neither overbought nor oversold.

6. LUNA Community Analytics

Number of LUNA Followers In The Last 30 Days

In the last 30 days alone, Terra followers have grown 24.99 % from 148,493.0 to 185,597.0 on Twitter and grown 35.92 % from 9,754 to 13,258 on Reddit.

Daily increment of Terra Twitter followers peaked on 04 Oct 2021 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 04 Oct 2021.

If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates.