Investment Disclaimer:

• I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
• Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
• This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post. 

Announcement from Quantdoge

If you are actively following my blog- Daily Crypto Risk Report, I sincerely thank you for taking the time to read my analysis, and your support is greatly appreciated. To further improve the quality of my daily analysis, I am actively making constant enhancements here and there.

I am pleased to announce that Quantdoge would be adding the Community Analytics section which you could find below in this article, where this section would look at how the community of particular cryptocurrency fares over time.

In the meanwhile, Quantdoge is working hard on Developer Analytics and On-Chain Analytics features which would be gradually released over this month. Please stay tuned.

1. Top 3 Good News for ADA HODLERS !!!

• Cardano Launches First Alonzo Testnet While Presenting Rollout Plan for Smart Contracts
  Statistic as of 2021-05-30 04:36 AM EDT: 106 positive votes, 1 negative vote

  Cardano's smart contracts are expected to go live around September.
   (Extracted from CryptoPanic)

• Cardano ($ADA) Investment Products Had Highest Weekly Inflows, Says CoinShares
  Statistic as of 2021-05-30 04:36 AM EDT: 48 positive votes, 1 negative vote
  
  Cardano (ADA) investment products have seen the highest weekly inflows among cryptocurrency investment products, according to a report published by CoinShares. The report reveals that inflows into ADA investment products were $10 million for the week ending on Monday, more than any other cryptocurrency fund. Bitcoin funds saw outflows of $110.9 million, while ETH funds […]
  (Extracted from CryptoPanic)

• Crypto Analyst Explains $ADA and $MATIC Could Explode Over Next Few Weeks
  Statistic as of 2021-05-30 04:36 AM EDT: 45 positive votes, 2 negative votes
  
  The host of popular crypto YouTube channel Altcoin Daily has named seven cryptoassets he believes could surge in June based on various factors. The host, Aaron Arnold, kicked off the list with Cardano (ADA) ahead of its smart contract functionality deployment. In a video published to the channel’s over 800,000 subscribers, Arnold pointed out that […]
  (Extracted from CryptoPanic)

2. Top Bad News for ADA HODLERS !!!

• Chance of a price crash increases as Cardano (ADA) futures near $1B
  Statistic as of 2021-05-30 04:36 AM EDT: 0 positive vote, 6 negative votes
  
  ADA's price crashed the last time its futures open interest reached $1 billion, leading traders to question whether or not it is about to happen again.
  (Extracted from CryptoPanic)

3. How Cardano Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

As of 30 May 2021, Cardano has made a cumulative return of 4077.06% since Jan 2020 and 779.6%  since Jan 2021. It is currently the 4th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.

4. Technical Analysis on Cardano

4.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when ADA is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of ADA (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of ADA (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 30 May 2021, VWAP is suggesting that ADA is trading below its average price of USD 1.60 to USD 1.80 per ADA.

4.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of ADA closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that ADA is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that ADA is losing momentum. 

As of 30 May 2021, MACD is suggesting that ADA is losing momentum.

4.3. Bollinger Band

Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of ADA
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of ADA on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of ADA from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of ADA

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that ADA is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that ADA is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 30 May 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that ADA is trading near its oversold (i.e. undervalued) level.

4.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that ADA is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that ADA is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 30 May 2021, RSI is suggesting that ADA is neither oversold nor overbought (i.e. at its fair value level). 

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge holds a neutral stance on the short-term price outlook of Cardano, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

5. Cardano Risk Profile

Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Cardano defined above, ADA seems to trade at a lower risk level on 30 May 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 20 May 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at - 31.22% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

6.Price Simulation for Cardano

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual ADA price movement over the last week ?

Over the last 7 days, ADA has been trading near the median price range of quantdoge simulations, indicating that ADA was trading at its fair value level over the last week.

 7.ADA Community Analytics

Number of ADA Followers In The Past 24 Months


During the past 24 months, Cardano followers have grown 214.05 % from 151,862.0 to 476,929.0 on Twitter and grown 564.81 % from 73,387 to 487,883 on Reddit.

Monthly increment of Cardano Twitter followers peaked on 30 May 2021 and its monthly increment of Reddit followers peaked on 30 May 2021.

Number of ADA Followers In The Last 30 Days

In the last 30 days alone, Cardano followers have grown 31.32 % from 363,172 to 476,929 on Twitter and grown 33.51 % from 365,433 to 487,883 on Reddit.

Daily increment of Cardano Twitter followers peaked on 14 May 2021 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 15 May 2021.

If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates.