Investment Disclaimer:

• I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
• Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
• This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.
• I do hold a long position in ADA as a token holder.

0. What is Cardano?

Cardano is a proof-of-stake blockchain platform which leverages on Ouroboros protocol. Ouroboros is the first peer-reviewed, verifiably secure blockchain protocol, and Cardano is the first blockchain to implement it. Ouroboros enables the Cardano network’s decentralization, and allows it to sustainably scale to global requirements without, crucially, compromising security.

1A. Top 3 Good News for ADA HODLERS !!!

• Charles Hoskinson: This is Cardano’s Roadmap For 2022
  Statistic as of 2021-12-27 02:33 AM EDT: 99 positive votes, 8 negative votes
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)
  
  
• IOHK Shares Blueprint And How Cardano Aims To Provide Over 1 Billion People With Digital Identities
  Statistic as of 2021-12-27 02:33 AM EDT: 64 positive votes, 13 negative votes
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)
  
  
• Charles Hoskinson Shares Development Update for Cardano-Based Stablecoin Djed
  Statistic as of 2021-12-27 02:33 AM EDT: 44 positive votes, 3 negative votes
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)

1B. Top Bad News for ADA HODLERS !!!

• 10% of Cardano wealthiest addresses control 94% of all ADA circulating supply
  Statistic as of 2021-12-27 02:33 AM EDT: 23 positive votes, 46 negative votes
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)

2. How Cardano Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

Performance of All Cryptos Under Quantdoge Watchlist in 2021 (Sorted by % Return)

ADA has undergone 701.04% return from USD 0.1821 to USD 1.4587 since 01 Jan 2021.
ADA is the 11th best performing crypto assets among others here.

3. How Resilience Cardano Is Towards Bitcoin Crash Relative to Other Cryptos ?

Historically, all altcoins are somewhat dependent on Bitcoin price movement and it’s often the case where if Bitcoin falls, most altcoins would follow.

Top 3 Cryptos That Are Most Resilient To Bitcoin Crash During Each of BTC 4 Worst Crashes in 2021

ADA has proven resilience against BTC crash in 1 out of the 4 instances.
During the last 4 BTC market crashes,
            When BTC dropped by -13.47 %, ADA returned -24.61 % at 20 May 2021,
            When BTC dropped by -13.13 %, ADA returned -17.3 % at 22 January 2021,
            When BTC dropped by -12.16 %, ADA returned -11.26 % at 13 May 2021,
            When BTC dropped by -11.39 %, ADA returned -17.54 % at 22 June 2021

4. Technical Analysis on Cardano

4.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when ADA is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of ADA (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of ADA (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 26 Dec 2021, VWAP is suggesting that ADA has been gaining a lot of momentum. 

4.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of ADA closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that ADA is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that ADA is losing momentum. 

As of 26 Dec 2021, MACD is suggesting that ADA has been gaining a lot of momentum. 

4.3. Bollinger Band

Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of ADA
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of ADA on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of ADA from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of ADA

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that ADA is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that ADA is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 26 Dec 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that ADA is neither oversold nor overbought.

4.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that ADA is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that ADA is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 26 Dec 2021, RSI is suggesting that ADA is neither oversold nor overbought.

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge holds a neutral stance on the short-term price action of ADA, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

5. Cardano Risk Profile

Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Cardano defined above, ADA seems to trade at a similar risk level on 26 Dec 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 16 Dec 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at -12.37% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

6. Price Simulation for Cardano

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual ADA price movement over the last week ?

Over the last 7 days, ADA is trading at the upper 75th quantile of all quantdoge simulations, indicating that ADA is overbought and is slightly overvalued. 

7. Google Trends Analytics

cardano reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-05-09 with a Google Score of 100
Over the last quarter, cardano Google Score has decreased 20.94 % from 31.2 to 24.67
Over the last 6 months, cardano Google Score has increased 20.33 % from 20.5 to 24.67

Over the last month, cardano is most saught after in Gibraltar, followed by Liechtenstein and Aruba.

8. Developer Activity Analytics

Fork

Fork refers to the amount of time where the Github repo of current cryptocurrency is being copied. Higher fork number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more interest in the developers community who likes to explore more on the deep technical of this project.

Cardano forks increased 6.38% from 580 to 617 in the past year.

Star

Star refers to the number of developers who bookmark the Github repo of current cryptocurrency. Higher star number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more general interest in the developers community.

Cardano stars increased 8.99% from 3426 to 3734  in the past year.

Pull Request

Pull request contributor refers to developer who has made a successful improvement/ modification on the Github repo of this current cryptocurrency project. Higher number of pull request contributors could mean that there is a high number of commitment given by developers to this cryptocurrency project.

However, a low number also could mean that the developer community of this project applies a strict standard when it comes to code review, so only developers who have published a high quality code with highly impactful features got approved.

Cardano pull request contributors remained stagnant at 80 in the past year.

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