24 April 2021 (SAT)- Polkadot (DOT) Daily Risk Report

By quantdoge | Daily Crypto Risk Report | 24 Apr 2021


Investment Disclaimer:

  • I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
  • Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
  • This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post. 
1. Top Good News for DOT HODLERS !!!
2. Top Bad News for DOT HODLERS !!!
3. How Polkadot Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

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As of 24 April 2021, Polkadot has made a cumulative return of 1015.39% since Jan 2020 and 380.27% since Jan 2021. It is currently the 5th best performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.

4. Technical Analysis on Polkadot

4.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

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VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when DOT is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (cross price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of DOT (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (cross price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of DOT (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

On 24 April 2021, VWAP suggest that DOT is losing momentum and traded at a level lower than its average price range of USD 36 to USD 38.

4.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) 

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MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of DOT closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that DOT is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that DOT is losing momentum. 

On 24 April 2021, MACD suggests that DOT is losing momentum and currently trending below its average momentum. 

4.3. Bollinger Band

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Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of DOT
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of DOT on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of DOT from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of DOT

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that DOT is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that DOT is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

On 24 April 2021, Bollinger band suggests that DOT is trading at an undervalued level and is being corrected too much. Technical suggests that DOT has a good chance of rebounding from its current price level to a higher price. However, I could be wrong, hence, please make careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

4.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

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Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index  is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that DOT is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that DOT is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

On 24 April 2021, Bollinger band suggests that DOT is trading near its undervalue threshold at 30 on calculation windows of 14 days. 

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge holds a slight bullish stance on the short-term price outlook of Polkadot and expects Polkadot to increase a little higher than it is now at USD 29.70 per DOT a week later, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

5. Polkadot Risk Profile

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Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Polkadot defined above, DOT seems to trade at a higher risk level on 24 Apr 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 15 Apr 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at 12.42% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

6. Price Simulation for Polkadot

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How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual DOT price movement over the last week ?

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Over the last 7 days, DOT has been trading at the lower region below 25% quantile of all quantdoge simulations, indicating that DOT was risky to the down side over the last week. 

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If you are into Ethereum (ETH) and Binance Coin (BNB), I have made similar analysis on them at:

If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates. 

 

 

  

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quantdoge
quantdoge

Data scientist in crypto and blockchain space.


Daily Crypto Risk Report
Daily Crypto Risk Report

This blog was created by quantdoge, a data scientist in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space to publish daily risk reports on different cryptocurrencies. All published reports in this blog were analyzed with in-house algorithmic trading and quantitative risk management technology. ** Investment disclaimer: ** I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.

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