Investment Disclaimer:

• I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
• Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
• This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.

1. Top Good News for BNB HODLERS !!!

• Binance Burns Record $595.3 Million Worth of BNB, Reaching New Milestone
  Statistic as of 2021-04-23 11:13 AM EDT: 48 positive votes, 4 negative votes
  
  Leading crypto exchange Binance has reported another scheduled quarterly burn of BNB – this time destroying a record worth of BNB is USD
  (Read more on CryptoPanic)

2. Top Bad News for ETH HODLERS !!!

• Messari researchers slam Binance Smart Chain over centralized validators
  Statistic as of 2021-04-23 11:13 AM EDT: 12 positive votes, 28 negative votes
  
  With Binance Chain’s 11 validators hand-selecting Binance Smart Chain’s validators daily, analysts are warning of the protocol’s centralization.
  (Read more on CryptoPanic)

3. How Binance Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

As of 23 April 2021, Binance Coin has made a cumulative return of 3657.52% since Jan 2020 and 1328.23% since Jan 2021. It is currently the 2nd best performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.

4. Technical Analysis on Binance Coin

4.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when BNB is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (cross price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of BNB (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (cross price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of BNB (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

On 23 April 2021, VWAP suggest that BNB is losing momentum and traded at a level lower than its average price range of USD 525 to USD 535.  

4.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of ETH closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that BNB is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that BNB is losing momentum. 

On 23 April 2021, MACD suggests that BNB is losing momentum and currently trending below its average momentum. 

4.3. Bollinger Band

Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of BNB
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of BNB on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of BNB from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of BNB

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that BNB is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that BNB is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

On 23 April 2021, Bollinger band suggests that BNB is trading at a fairly normal level (i.e. neither undervalued nor overvalued). 

4.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

ust like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index  is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that BNB is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that BNB is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

On 23 April 2021, Bollinger band suggests that BNB is trading at a fairly normal level (i.e. neither undervalued nor overvalued). 

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge holds a neutral stance on the short-term price outlook of Binance Coin, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

5. BNB Risk Profile

Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Binance Coin defined above, BNB seems to trade at a lower risk level on 23 Apr 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 14 Apr 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at 27.51% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

6. Price Simulation for BNB

If there is no major news update in the next 7 days, quantdoge simulation shows that there is a slightly higher chance for Binance Coin to retrace to a lower price level within the week than it is for it to rise to a higher price level. However, I could be wrong as my simulation is based on the assumptions that there would be no major news update nor fundamental changes on Binance within the next 7 days and the probability distribution for BNB to trade higher than its current level is equivalent to the probability distribution for it to trade at a much lower level. Please make careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

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If you are into Chainlink (LINK) and Dogecoin (DOGE), I have made similar analysis on them at:

• 21 April 2021 (WED)- Chainlink (LINK) Daily Risk Report
  
  
• 22 April 2021 (THU)- Dogecoin (DOGE) Daily Risk Report

If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates.