Investment Disclaimer:

• I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
• Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
• This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.
• I hold a long position in Avalanche (AVAX) as a token holder.

1A. Top 2 Good News for AVAX HODLERS !!!

• AVAX Rallies 40%, Shows No Signs Of Slowing Down
  Statistic as of 2021-12-20 11:13 AM EDT: 37 positive votes, 3 negative votes
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)
  
  
• $AVAX: Bank of America Seems Impressed by Avalanche’s Subnets
  Statistic as of 2021-12-20 11:13 AM EDT: 33 positive votes, 3 negative votes
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)

2. How Avalanche Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

As of 19 Dec 2021, Avalanche has made a cumulative return of 2,131.92% since Jan 2020 and 2,849.74%  since Jan 2021. It is currently the 7th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.

3. Technical Analysis on Avalanche

3.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when AVAX is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of AVAX (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of AVAX (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 19 Dec 2021, VWAP is suggesting that AVAX is gaining momentum.

3.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of AVAX closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that AVAX is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that AVAX is losing momentum. 

As of 19 Dec 2021, MACD is suggesting that AVAX is gaining momentum.

3.3. Bollinger Band

Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of AVAX
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of AVAX on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of AVAX from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of AVAX

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that AVAX is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that AVAX is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 19 Dec 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that AVAX is neither overbought nor oversold.

3.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that AVAX is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that AVAX is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 19 Dec 2021, RSI is suggesting that AVAX is neither overbought nor oversold.

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge holds a neutral stance on the short-term price action of AVAX, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

4. Avalanche Risk Profile

Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Avalanche defined above, AVAX seems to trade at a lower risk level on 19 Dec 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 09 Dec 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at -22.41% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

5. Monte Carlo Price Simulation for Avalanche

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual AVAX price movement over the last week ?

Over the last 7 days, AVAX is trading above the 75th percentile of all quantdoge simulations, indicating that AVAX has been overbought and is currently relatively overvalued.

6. AVAX Community Analytics

Number of AVAX Followers In The Last 30 Days

In the last 30 days alone, Avalanche followers have grown 28.65 % from 21,880 to 28,149 on Reddit.

Daily increment of Avalanche Twitter followers peaked on 24 Nov 2021 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 22 Nov 2021.

7. Google Trends Analytics

"avalanche network" reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-11-14 with a Google Score of 100
Over the last quarter, "avalanche network" Google Score has increased 114.0 % from 25.0 to 53.5
Over the last 6 months, "avalanche network" Google Score has increased 2,040.0 % from 2.5 to 53.5

"avalanche network" is mainly sought on Google from Nigeria, follow by Greece and Canada this month.

8. Developer Activity Analytics

Fork

Fork refers to the amount of time where the Github repo of current cryptocurrency is being copied. Higher fork number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more interest in the developers community who likes to explore more on the deep technical of this project.

Avalanche forks increased 140.2% from 102 to 245 in the past year.

Star

Star refers to the number of developers who bookmark the Github repo of current cryptocurrency. Higher star number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more general interest in the developers community.

Avalanche stars increased 155.73% from 497 to 1271 in the past year.

Pull Request

Pull request contributor refers to developer who has made a successful improvement/ modification on the Github repo of this current cryptocurrency project. Higher number of pull request contributors could mean that there is a high number of commitment given by developers to this cryptocurrency project.

However, a low number also could mean that the developer community of this project applies a strict standard when it comes to code review, so only developers who have published a high quality code with highly impactful features got approved.

Avalanche pull request contributors increased 108.33% from 12 to 25 in the past year.

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