Investment Disclaimer:

• I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
• Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
• This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.
• I do hold a long position in Cosmos ATOM as a token holder.

1. How Cosmos Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

As of 09 Dec 2021, Cosmos has made a cumulative return of 527.97% since Jan 2020 and 394.09%  since Jan 2021. It is currently the 10th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.

2. Technical Analysis on Cosmos

2.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when ATOM is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of ATOM (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of ATOM (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 09 Dec 2021, VWAP is suggesting that ATOM is losing momentum these few days.

2.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of ATOM closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that ATOM is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that ATOM is losing momentum. 

As of 09 Dec 2021, MACD is suggesting that ATOM is losing significant momentum.

2.3. Bollinger Band

Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of ATOM
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of ATOM on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of ATOM from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of ATOM

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that ATOM is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that ATOM is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 09 Dec 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that ATOM is being oversold.

2.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that ATOM is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that ATOM is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 09 Dec 2021, RSI is suggesting that ATOM is being oversold.

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge is bullish on ATOM, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

3. Cosmos Risk Profile

Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Cosmos defined above, ATOM seems to trade at a greater risk level on 09 Dec 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 29 Nov 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at -27.62% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

4. Monte Carlo Price Simulation for Cosmos

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual ATOM price movement over the last week ?

Over the last 7 days, ATOM has dropped to the lower 25th percentile of quantdoge simulations, indicating that ATOM was oversold to a relatively undervalued position. 

5. ATOM Community Analytics

Number of ATOM Followers In The Past 24 Months

During the past 24 months, Cosmos followers have grown 810.16 % from 29,289 to 266,578 on Twitter and grown 540.55 % from 7,453 to 47,740 on Reddit.

Number of ATOM Followers In The Last 30 Days

In the last 30 days alone, Cosmos followers have grown 8.84 % from 244,922 to 266,578 on Twitter and grown 6.33 % from 44,897 to 47,740 on Reddit.

Daily increment of Cosmos Twitter followers peaked on 23 Nov 2021 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 04 Dec 2021.

6. Google Trends Analytics

cosmos network reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-02-14 with a Google Score of 100
Over the last quarter, cosmos network Google Score has decreased 46.04 % from 27.8 to 15.0
Over the last 6 months, cosmos network Google Score has decreased 36.17 % from 23.5 to 15.0

7. Developer Activity Analytics

Fork

Fork refers to the amount of time where the Github repo of current cryptocurrency is being copied. Higher fork number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more interest in the developers community who likes to explore more on the deep technical of this project.

ATOM forks increased 30.43% from 184.0 to 240.0 in the past year.

Star

Star refers to the number of developers who bookmark the Github repo of current cryptocurrency. Higher star number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more general interest in the developers community.

ATOM stars increased 15.16% from 897.0 to 1033.0 in the past year.

Subscriber

Subscriber refers to developers who subscribed to the Github repo of current cryptocurrency. Higher subscriber number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more general interest in the developers community.

ATOM subscribers increased 6.43% from 140.0 to 149.0 in the past year.

Pull Request

Pull request contributor refers to developer who has made a successful improvement/ modification on the Github repo of this current cryptocurrency project. Higher number of pull request contributors could mean that there is a high number of commitment given by developers to this cryptocurrency project.

However, a low number also could mean that the developer community of this project applies a strict standard when it comes to code review, so only developers who have published a high quality code with highly impactful features got approved.

ATOM pull request contributors increased 0.0% from 21.0 to 21.0 in the past year.