Investment Disclaimer:

• I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
• Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
• This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post

Announcement from Quantdoge

If you are actively following my blog- Daily Crypto Risk Report, I sincerely thank you for taking the time to read my analysis, and your support is greatly appreciated. To further improve the quality of my daily analysis, I am actively making constant enhancements here and there.

I am pleased to announce that Quantdoge would be adding Community Analytics and On-Chain Analytics sections which you could find below in this article, where both sections would look at how the community of particular cryptocurrency fares over time, transaction activities on Bitcoin blockchain , Bitcoin miner concentration and Bitcoin network fees over time. 

In the meanwhile, Quantdoge is working hard on Developer Analytics features which would be gradually released over this month. Please stay tuned.

1. Bitcoin On- Chain Analytics

Analyzing period: 20 May 2021 to 6 June 2021

Transactions happening on Bitcoin has seen a decline from 3 June 2021, where the latest amount of transactions on Bitcoin blockchain as of 6 June 2021 is 202,840, down from its peak on 3 June 2021 where 257,093 transactions were recorded. Similar decline was also seen on Ethereum blockchain (07 JUN 2021 (MON)- Ethereum (ETH) Daily Risk Report). 

According to on-chain data, most of Bitcoin transactions happening between 12.00am to 3.00am U.S. Eastern Standard Time on average between 20 May 2021 and 6 June 2021.

Number of transactions happening on Bitcoin blockchain and its network fees collected by miners seems to have a positive correlation with BTC price. As BTC price declined from its peak on 22 May 2021, network fees collected by miners were gradually declined as its network getting less congested.

As of 6 June 2021, the top 3 Bitcoin miner collectively accounted for 41.37% of all transactions while the other miners accounted for the remaining 58.63% transactions.

These top 3 miners are:
1. https://btc.com/18cBEMRxXHqzWWCxZNtU91F5sbUNKhL5PX (ViaBTC Bitcoin Mining Pool)
2. https://btc.com/1KFHE7w8BhaENAswwryaoccDb6qcT6DbYY (Discus Fish (F2Pool))
3. https://btc.com/12dRugNcdxK39288NjcDV4GX7rMsKCGn6B

2. Top 3 Good News for BTC HODLERS !!!

• Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Invests $500 Million In Digital Bank That Works with Bitcoin
  Statistic as of 2021-06-08 12:02 AM EDT: 69 positive votes, 1 negative vote
  
  Vocal Bitcoin hater Warren Buffett invests in a digital bank that offers a Bitcoin ETF to its clients.
  (Extracted from CryptoPanic)

• White House Advisor Holds Over $1M in Bitcoin: Report

  Statistic as of 2021-06-08 12:02 AM EDT: 28 positive votes, 0 negative vote
  
  

• El Salvador President Says Bill to Make Bitcoin Legal Tender Is ‘Simple – Short – Sweet’
  Statistic as of 2021-06-08 12:02 AM EDT: 27 positive votes, 0 negative vote
  
  On Monday (June 7), El Salvador President Nayib Bukele provided an update on the status on the proposed bill that Zap’s Jack Mallers — who helped with drafting the bill — announced at Miami’s Bitcoin 2021 conference last Saturday (June 5). During his talk, an emotional Mallers, who is the founder and CEO of Zap Solutions (a […]
  (Extracted from CryptoPanic)

3. Top 3 Bad News for BTC HODLERS !!!

• 25% of Bitcoin Users Have Fled Since Tesla Stopped Accepting BTC
  Statistic as of 2021-06-08 12:02 AM EDT: 10 positive votes, 23 negative votes
  
  

  According to Timothy Peterson, 25% of Bitcoin users have fled the network since Tesla stopped accepting BTC for car payments Elon’s tweet making the announcement has changed Bitcoin’s fundamentals Bitcoin’s network size is down 45% from its peak value in mid-April Bitcoin is staring at a death cross on the daily chart Bitcoin and Crypto analyst, Timothy Peterson of Cane Island Alternative...
  (Extracted from CryptoPanic)

• Record $141M outflow from Bitcoin products signals institutions are bearish on BTC: CoinShares
  Statistic as of 2021-06-08 12:02 AM EDT: 18 positive votes, 29 negative votes
  
  Institutional investors withdrew a record $141 million from Bitcoin investment products this past week.
  (Extracted from CryptoPanic)

• Crypto markets tumble after miners unload 5,000 BTC in one week
  Statistic as of 2021-06-08 12:02 AM EDT: 1 positive vote, 12 negative votes
  
  With Bitcoin’s price consistently trending below its 200-day moving averages and heavy selling identified among miners, some analysts are bracing for further bearish momentum
  (Extracted from CryptoPanic)

4. How Bitcoin Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

As of 08 Jun 2021, Bitcoin has made a cumulative return of 467.01% since Jan 2020 and 114.65%  since Jan 2021. It is currently the 15th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.

5. Technical Analysis on Bitcoin

5.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when BTC is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of BTC (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of BTC (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 08 Jun 2021, VWAP is suggesting that BTC is trading below its short-term volume-weighted average price range of USD 36,000 to USD 37,000.

5.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of BTC closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that BTC is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that BTC is losing momentum. 

As of 08 Jun 2021, MACD is suggesting that BTC is gaining momentum.

5.3. Bollinger Band

Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of BTC
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of BTC on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of BTC from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of BTC

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that BTC is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that BTC is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 08 Jun 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that BTC is being oversold (i.e. undervalued).

5.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that BTC is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that BTC is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 08 Jun 2021, RSI is suggesting that BTC is being oversold (i.e. undervalued).

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge holds a bullish view on short-term price action of BTC, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

6. Bitcoin Risk Profile

Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Bitcoin defined above, BTC seems to trade at a lower risk level on 08 Jun 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 29 May 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at - 15.52% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

7. Price Simulation for Bitcoin

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual BTC price movement over the last week ?

Over the last 7 days, BTC has been trading below the median price range of quantdoge simulations, indicating that BTC was oversold over the last week.

9. BTC Community Analytics

Number of BTC Followers In The Past 24 Months


During the past 24 months, Bitcoin followers have grown 4020.43 % from 65,091 to 2,682,026 on Twitter and grown 191.32 % from 1,047,991 to 3,053,049 on Reddit.

Number of BTC Followers In The Last 30 Days

In the last 30 days alone, Bitcoin followers have grown 2920.33 % from 88,799 to 2,682,026 on Twitter and grown 6.79 % from 2,858,855 to 3,053,049 on Reddit.

If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates.