Investment Disclaimer:

• I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
• Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
• This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post. 

Announcement from Quantdoge

If you are actively following my blog- Daily Crypto Risk Report, I sincerely thank you for taking the time to read my analysis, and your support is greatly appreciated. To further improve the quality of my daily analysis, I am actively making constant enhancements here and there.

I am pleased to announce that Quantdoge would be adding the Community Analytics and On-Chain Analytics section which you could find below in this article, where this section would look at how the community of particular cryptocurrency fares over time, transaction activities on Ethereum blockchain and Ethereum miner concentration. 

In the meanwhile, Quantdoge is working hard on Developer Analytics features which would be gradually released over this month. Please stay tuned.

1. Ethereum On- Chain Analytics

Analyzing period: 31 May 2021 to 5 June 2021

Transactions happening on Ethereum has seen a decline from 3 June 2021, where the latest amount of transactions as of 5 June 2021 is 1.13 million transactions, down from its peak on 3 June 2021 where 1.32 million transactions were recorded. The transactions being tracked here are inclusive of both internal transactions via smart contracts and external transactions between different wallet addresses. 

According to on-chain data, most of Ethereum transactions happening between 7.00pm to 9.00pm U.S. Eastern Standard Time on average. 

As of 5 June 2021, the top 3 Ethereum mining pools accounted for 54.52% of all transactions (Spark Pool- 25.14%, Ethermine- 18.99%, F2Pool- 10.40%) while the other mining pools accounted for the remaining 45.48% transactions.

As seen from the chart above, Spark Pool (https://www.sparkpool.com/) is the top miner, followed by Ethermine (https://ethermine.org/) and F2Pool (https://www.f2pool.com/). 

2. Top 3 Good News for ETH HODLERS !!!

• CoinShares lists Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin ETPs on Germany’s Börse Xetra
  Statistic as of 2021-06-07 11:06 AM EDT: 35 positive votes, 0 negative vote
  
  CoinShares has announced that its Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin physically-backed exchange traded products have cross-listed on Germany’s Börse Xetra exchange.
  (Extracted from CryptoPanic)
  

• Balances of Ethereum on crypto exchanges hit 2-year low
  Statistic as of 2021-06-07 11:06 AM EDT: 23 positive votes, 0 negative vote
  
  The amount of Ethereum (ETH) on leading crypto exchanges has reached its lowest level in more than two years. Based... Continue reading
  (Extracted from CryptoPanic)

• ETH May Not Go to the Moon, but an Ethereum Node Is Now at the International Space Station
  Statistic as of 2021-06-07 11:06 AM EDT: 24 positive votes, 5 negative votes
  
  Singapore-based blockchain startup SpaceChain announced on June 3 that “its blockchain-enabled payload” was “launched into space from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket”; SpaceX’s cargo spacecraft Dragon docked to the Harmony module of the International Space Station (ISS) on June 5. Around 17:30 UTC on June 3, we had lift-off for […]
  (Extracted from CryptoPanic)

3. Top Bad News for ETH HODLERS !!!

• Even Vitalik Buterin is surprised at just how long Eth2 is taking
  Statistic as of 2021-06-07 11:07 AM EDT: 1 positive vote, 9 negative votes
  
  The Ethereum co-founder cites people problems as one of the obstacles to progress.
  (Extracted from CryptoPanic)

4. How Ethereum Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

As of 07 Jun 2021, Ethereum has made a cumulative return of 2095.6% since Jan 2020 and 375.96%  since Jan 2021. It is currently the 9th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.

5. Technical Analysis on Ethereum

5.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when ETH is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of ETH (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of ETH (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 07 Jun 2021, VWAP is suggesting that ETH is trading at its volume-weighted average price range of USD 2,900 to USD 3,000.

5.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of ETH closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that ETH is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that ETH is losing momentum. 

As of 07 Jun 2021, MACD is suggesting that ETH is gaining momentum.

5.3. Bollinger Band

Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of ETH
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of ETH on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of ETH from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of ETH

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that ETH is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that ETH is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 07 Jun 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that ETH is neither oversold nor overbought (i.e. trading at its fair value).

5.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that ETH is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that ETH is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 07 Jun 2021, RSI is suggesting that ETH is neither oversold nor overbought (i.e. trading at its fair value).

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge holds a neutral view on the short-term price action of Ethereum, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

6. Ethereum Risk Profile

Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Ethereum defined above, ETH seems to trade at a higher risk level on 07 Jun 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 28 May 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at - 32.49% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

7. Price Simulation for Ethereum

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual ETH price movement over the last week ?

Over the last 7 days, ETH has been trading at its 75-th percentile price range of quantdoge simulations, indicating that ETH was overbought over the last week.

8. ETH Community Analytics

Number of ETH Followers In The Past 24 Months

During the past 24 months, Ethereum followers have grown 202.99 % from 442,949 to 1,342,101 on Twitter and grown 127.46 % from 438,330 to 997,024 on Reddit.

Monthly increment of Ethereum Twitter followers peaked on May 2021 and its monthly increment of Reddit followers peaked on May 2021.

Number of ETH Followers In The Last 30 Days

In the last 30 days alone, Ethereum followers have grown 23.93 % from 1,082,929.0 to 1,342,101.0 on Twitter and grown 13.18 % from 880,881 to 997,024 on Reddit.

Daily increment of Ethereum Twitter followers peaked on 13 May 2021 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 10 May 2021.

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