05 JAN 2022 (WED)- Terra Luna (LUNA) Report Card

05 JAN 2022 (WED)- Terra Luna (LUNA) Report Card


Investment Disclaimer:

  • I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
  • Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
  • This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.
  • I do hold a long position in LUNA as a token holder.

Announcement: Crypto.com Supercharger Event- Stake CRO, Get LUNA !!! (Not Financial Advice)

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With the rise in adoption, total value locked (TVL) and most critically, price of Terra Luna ($LUNA) token and its entire ecosystem, are you interested to grab some LUNA but worrying on the sustainability of its high price in the short run ? Crypto.com supercharger event may be for you.

Through this supercharger event, you could get LUNA as staking rewards by buying and staking Crypto.com CRO tokens (which I have written on it 2 days ago ->> 03 JAN 2022 (MON)- Crypto.com (CRO) Report Card). Comparatively, CRO token is now trading at a more oversold (undervalued) position as compared to the LUNA token (refer to quantdoge technical analysis below in this article). Please do your due diligence, and do take note that this is just my personal opinion.

This supercharger event would be taking place today and the supercharging period would run from today until 19 Feb 2022. The earlier you participate in this event, the greater the amount of LUNA rewards you would get. You would need to sign up an account with Crypto.com in order to participate this event. If you are interested in signing up an account/ getting a Visa prepaid debit card with crypto cashback rewards from Crypto.com, you may sign up with quantdoge referral link as follow:

https://crypto.com/app/j2dc67xe82

with the referral code of j2dc67xe82 , where both of us would get USD 25 once you stake for a Ruby card or above.

Find out more on: https://crypto.com/exchange/supercharger/luna-17

1A. Top 3 Good News for LUNA HODLERS !!!

1B. Top Bad News for LUNA HODLERS !!!

2. How Luna Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

Performance of All Cryptos Under Quantdoge Watchlist in 2021 (Sorted by % Return)

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LUNA has undergone 13,546.7% return from USD 0.6518 to USD 88.9492 since 01 Jan 2021. LUNA is the 4th best performing crypto assets among others here.

3. How Resilience Luna Is Towards Bitcoin Crash Relative to Other Cryptos ?

Historically, all altcoins are somewhat dependent on Bitcoin price movement and it’s often the case where if Bitcoin falls, most altcoins would follow.

Top 3 Cryptos That Are Most Resilient To Bitcoin Crash During Each of BTC 4 Largest Crashes in 2021
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LUNA has proven resilience against BTC crash in 0 out of the 4 instances.

During the last 4 BTC market crashes,
When BTC dropped by -13.47 %, LUNA returned -38.27 % at 20 May 2021,
When BTC dropped by -13.13 %, LUNA returned -12.19 % at 22 January 2021,
When BTC dropped by -12.16 %, LUNA returned -9.28 % at 13 May 2021,
When BTC dropped by -11.39 %, LUNA returned -17.47 % at 22 June 2021           

4. Technical Analysis on Luna

4.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

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VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when LUNA is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of LUNA (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of LUNA (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 04 Jan 2022, VWAP is suggesting that LUNA is gaining momentum.

4.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

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MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of LUNA closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that LUNA is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that LUNA is losing momentum. 

As of 04 Jan 2022, MACD is suggesting that LUNA is gaining momentum.

4.3. Bollinger Band

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Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of LUNA
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of LUNA on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of LUNA from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of LUNA

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that LUNA is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that LUNA is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 04 Jan 2022, Bollinger Band is suggesting that LUNA is neither oversold nor overbought.

4.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

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Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that LUNA is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that LUNA is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 04 Jan 2022, RSI is suggesting that LUNA is slightly oversold over the 14-day trading window.

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge is neutral on the short-term price outlook of LUNA, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

5. Luna Risk Profile
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Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Luna defined above, LUNA seems to trade at a lower risk level on 04 Jan 2022 as compared to 10 days before on 25 Dec 2021

6. Price Simulation for Luna

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual LUNA price movement over the last week ?

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Over the last 7 days, LUNA is trading near the median range of all quantdoge simulations, indicating that LUNA is neither oversold nor overbought.

7. Google Trends Analytics

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Terra Luna reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-12-19 with a Google Score of 100
Over the last quarter, Terra Luna Google Score has increased 28.34 % from 46.75 to 60.0
Over the last 6 months, Terra Luna Google Score has increased 42.18 % from 42.2 to 60.0

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Over the last month, Terra Luna is most saught after on Google from Singapore (Asia crypto hub where many crypto funds, crypto venture capitalists and crypto entrepreneurs reside),  followed by Slovenia and Italy. A rising interest from crypto-supportive crypto hub is a good sign for this crypto project.

If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates.

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quantdoge
quantdoge

Data scientist in crypto and blockchain space.


Daily Crypto Risk Report
Daily Crypto Risk Report

This blog was created by quantdoge, a data scientist in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space to publish daily risk reports on different cryptocurrencies. All published reports in this blog were analyzed with in-house algorithmic trading and quantitative risk management technology. ** Investment disclaimer: ** I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.

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