Many people have asked me if this bear market worries me, and for a long time my answer, yes but in a 20 year time span none of this will matter. For the first time, today, my answer has changed. This bear market might be the greatest thing for the crypto market. The last "bear" market in the crypto market was in 2018. The "bear" market which I am putting in quotes because it really wasn't a bear market, the bull market was a tester market and the crash came after because people got scared. They were unsure of what crypto was, most people only knew Bitcoin or clamored onto the first alt coin they found but this is a true bear market that coincides with the stock market entering a bear market. The reason why I have changed my feelings on the direction of crypto is because of the international adoption of it.

Looking at this graph which highlights Google search volume of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Coinbase, Uniswap, and NFTs. Take a look at what happened between 2017 and 2018, there was a huge spike in search volume when Bitcoin first took off and then a dramatic crash and up until its rebound in 2020. The search volume for Bitcoin was minimal and for the rest it was dormient. As for today, Bitcoin's search volume has decreased slightly but has remained relatively high since the rise of Bitcoin's price in 2020.

This chart better visualizes what I am talking about notice the dramatic decrease in search volume between the highs and low in Bitcoin. I do not need to show you the price changes in Bitcoin, you can visually see the changes by search volume in 2018 to 2019 and beyond. Lets go one step further because search volume can not paint a full picture of the crypto market nor can it definitely back my hypothesis. That is, since the world has culturally and financially accepted Bitcoin that this bear market is a healthy correction and thinning out of bad and unwanted crypto / web 3 projects to build a stronger and more solidified ecosystem within crypto and web 3. 

This is another strong indicator that people are still investing into crypto and the belief in crypto is very much still alive amongst retail investors. The one bad thing about this graph is this from Coinbase's Q1 report which was released in May. I am curious to see Coinbase's app / web traffic on their Q2 report as well as there new verified user growth. If it follows this same pattern during a bear market, then I will become even more confident in crypto and the ability of its success in the near future. 

Social media sentiment and outlook is typically hard to gage. Furthermore, this graph only shows new followers of crypto exchanges but similar to the earlier graph I mentioned highlighting Bitcoin search history, social media traffic is a good indicator of support from retail investors. This is not to take away from the fact that many institutions are pulling out crypto due to its high volatility but as I have mentioned in previous articles since crypto is alternative asset is the first to go for institutional investors in a bear market, too risky. 

These graphs all tell the same story, Bitcoin is becoming increasing more active. This is look more and more like a correction for the crypto market and trust in crypto, specifically Bitcoin has not been lost like it was in 2019 after the fall in 2018. This is a good sign for the long-term of crypto.

The best for last. Yes, a graph showing you pageviews of Bitcoin's Wikipedia page is the best. Think about why you use Wikipedia, you go to Wikipedia to understand something, you do not know where a celebrity was born, use Wikipedia, trying to find facts about the French Revolution, Wikipedia. The same goes for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, people did not understand what Bitcoin was in 2018 but now they do. Bitcoin is a household name, my 73 year old father knows what Bitcoin is and yesterday he asked me how to use Venmo. Bitcoin has become internationally accepted. People still do not understand everything about crypto, blockchain technology, or NFTs but the idea behind Bitcoin is now accepted, people and more importantly institutions are trying to understand Web 3 / crypto and how they can get involved in this rapidly growing industry. This is very good news for the long-term success of crypto and Web 3. We may be in a bear market, and we might be here for some time. The good news however is that when we come back from this, crypto will not be looked at as some fad, or weird side hustle that people like to abuse, no it will be looked at as legitimate alternative investment opportunity and the future of finance. 

Happy investing, happy trading

- Hypothetical 

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