A few days ago, the Splinterlands team announced on social media and via a post on the game's official account that three new voucher cards would be arriving in the Splinterlands universe on June 30th. That day is almost here, marking the rotation from the current cards to the new ones—a perfect moment to analyze the upcoming cards hitting the Exclusive Store (or "Lyra & Lorn's Exclusives," if you prefer).
Until now, the store featured Grayhammer Painsmith for 25 vouchers, Conjurer's Hubris for 100 vouchers, and Lorn for 1,050 vouchers. Each possessed a unique and distinctive set of abilities. Rest assured, though: even after these cards leave the voucher shop, players will still be able to acquire them via the in-game marketplace by purchasing them from other players.
With this card rotation approaching, players might wonder: Is it worth buying voucher cards directly from the Voucher Shop, or should I wait and buy them from another player on the Marketplace? To answer this, let's look at the differences between buying directly versus using the secondary market, analyzing the benefits of the Voucher Shop by using the Grayhammer Painsmith card—which was available until now—as an example.
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Splinterlands Voucher Shop vs. Marketplace
Initially, the price of these cards might be higher than on the marketplace because they are new releases; however, over time, the price of regular-rarity cards tends to drop. The reason lies in how the voucher card sale works. When players purchase a card through the Voucher Shop, they aren't just buying the regular version; they are also indirectly acquiring a "chance" to obtain the card in Gold Foil or Black Foil rarities.
During the last card sale, the odds of pulling a Gold Foil card were 2%—rising to 4% if two Alchemy Potions were used per card. Additionally, there was a slim 0.025% chance of getting a Black Foil card, which could also be doubled using potions—specifically, Midnight Potions.
Take the Grayhammer Painsmith as an example: if you look solely at the voucher cost and compare it to the card's marketplace price, you might see a significant difference and conclude that buying it from the Voucher Shop isn't worth it. However, you need to consider the full context of the voucher card sale.
A single Grayhammer Painsmith unit in the Voucher Shop cost 25 voucher tokens. At the time of my analysis, each voucher cost $0.0088, meaning 25 vouchers were equivalent to $0.22. The question arises when the user looks at the card's price on the marketplace. You might notice that the price per BCX is $0.115—which could imply a value 50% lower than the price in the in-game shop.
However, it is worth taking a closer look at certain points regarding the Grayhammer Painsmith—points that will very likely apply to the other two "voucher cards" as well. It is like "zooming out" first and then gradually "zooming in" on the card's details. The first detail is that once the sale in the voucher shop ends, the total number of these cards in the game's history will be limited to the quantity minted during the event—approximately 4,483 cards.
Now, if you "zoom in" on that quantity, you will see that only 68 are being traded on the marketplace. This represents about 1.5% of the total supply—a low figure, though generally normal, as cardholders may not be interested in selling at that price or might be actively using the cards. Now, "zoom in" once more and carefully observe the cards currently for sale and their prices.
When looking at the cards with the lowest Price per BCX, the first one is the $0.115 card we mentioned; however, after that—with only 3 units available—the next one costs $0.179, a price quite close to the $0.22 shop price. However, there is an important detail: the odds of pulling Gold Foil and Black Foil versions. A Gold Foil Grayhammer Painsmith is currently trading between $2.60 and $2.93 per unit.
Those buying in bulk will likely secure a Gold Foil; theoretically, you would need to purchase around 25 copies to reach a 100% probability—after all, 25 cards times a 4% chance (with a potion) equals 100%. On the other hand, if you are looking for just a few copies, it might be worth hunting for good prices on the secondary market. Just keep in mind that the price could rise if demand persists and supply dries up after the card leaves the voucher shop upon the arrival of the new cards.
