This Bitcoin cycle was supposed to be different. This was supposed to be the time when BTC finally reached escape velocity, soaring to levels that had been predicted for years. Forever changing the lives of those who had consistently been buying over the years.

However, this isn’t the reality. Somewhere along the way, things went astray, and it truly feels like we are living in the wrong timeline. Bitcoin was supposed to be much further along price-wise. 

That leaves us with two critical questions. 

Where did everything go wrong for Bitcoin? And, is this time truly different, meaning Bitcoin might not be able to recover?

Let’s dive into this. 

Before we can answer those questions, we must understand how we got to this point. Moving into 2025, everything was lining up perfectly for Bitcoin to do something spectacular. 

Donald Trump had been elected US President, and whether you like him or not, for the first time, we had an elected President who had become very friendly towards the cryptocurrency market. This was a stark contrast to the previous Biden administration, which had orchestrated Chokepoint 2.0, where there were legitimate concerns that they were attempting to kill the crypto industry once and for all. 

Trump was elected, vowing that he would create a US strategic Bitcoin reserve. He had also promised that crypto in general would be getting the fair regulation that we had been wanting for years. 

If that wasn’t enough, led by BlackRock, Bitcoin ETFs had finally been approved and were seeing unprecedented inflows. Also, companies such as MicroStrategy were going all-in on Bitcoin to not only put Bitcoin on their balance sheet, but also essentially become Bitcoin treasury companies. Putting all those factors together and also adding in the fact that we were also fresh off the most recent Bitcoin halving, taking place in 2024, had the entire crypto market extremely bullish. 

The question wasn’t if the price of Bitcoin would go up, but instead how quickly the price would go to $1 million and how far beyond that it would go. The bullish mood in the market was palpable. There was no way that we “weren’t going to make it” this time around.

However, the longer you are in the Bitcoin market, there is one reality that you will learn whether you like it or not. 

Bitcoin seems to have a mind of its own. Through human errors or not, it seems to thrive on being a contrarian and doing the exact opposite of what everyone is expecting. Dropping drastically when the mood is bullish, and skyrocketing when nearly everyone has given up. Once again, it seems that this scenario has been playing out.

The first domino to fall that seemed like a real punch to the gut of the cryptocurrency community was when the Trump family released the Trump coin, soon followed by the Melania coin. 

In an instant, before Trump had even taken office, the trust in the crypto market was dealt a brutal blow. With those actions, anything that Trump did toward the crypto community felt much less genuine, and we were always left with the belief he was doing this for his own gain.

Fast forward to the summer of 2026, and Trump has done very little for Bitcoin or crypto. While he did technically create the Bitcoin reserve. It was actually more of a promise not to sell the Bitcoin that the US already has. They haven’t added any Bitcoin since then. Along with that, the Crypto Clarity Act, which was supposed to give real regulation and clarity to this market, has been delayed significantly and still hasn’t been passed. 

It appears that Trump has slowly been distancing himself from this industry.

Bearish factors kept coming. The US fight against tariffs, and then its war against Iran, didn’t help. Bitcoiners have always believed that when BTC finally “makes it,” it will thrive during these macro events. However, until that day comes, BTC actually struggles mightily during these times. Its greatest strength is also its weakness. 

During times of fear and uncertainty, markets will often sell off. Bitcoin sells 24/7 with incredible liquidity, meaning it is the quickest and easiest asset to sell, which means it is usually the first to go.

There are no gods in crypto, and if anyone ever begins to believe they are smarter than this market; often results in them losing everything. 

Michael Saylor and Microstrategy were once hailed as one of the catalysts that would send Bitcoin’s price parabolic. With them already acquired over 800,000 BTC. 

Instead, they have quickly become one of the biggest threats to Bitcoin. With Michael Saylor creating a preferred-stock STRC, to put on more leverage to be able to buy Bitcoin at a faster pace. STRC was supposed to be pegged at $100, maintaining a 10% dividend. If the price drops below that, the percentage of the dividend would also increase accordingly. 

Some might argue that he is being hunted in order to liquidate him. Others would just say Bitcoin is dropping like it usually does. What you need to know is that at the time of writing this article, STRC has dropped to nearly $74. Resulting in the dividend being 26%. 

If Bitcoin’s price continues to drop, or if Microstrategy is forced to sell Bitcoin to pay these dividends, the floor below Bitcoin could truly fall out, causing a huge price cascading event. At the current moment, this is one of the largest concerns holding Bitcoin back.

Finally, Bitcoin isn’t the newest and shiniest toy on the market anymore.

The harsh truth for Bitcoiners is that the investing narrative has currently shifted to AI companies and stocks. During these next few months, we will be seeing some of the arguably most anticipated public stock market IPOs in the history of the stock market. 

AI is the current trend, SpaceX was the first to launch, but soon after, Anthropic will be coming as well, as well as a few others.

What this all means is that it appears that all the capital is heading into these areas instead of flowing into crypto. There is a strong likelihood that crypto in general might not go up until all of these have officially launched and had time for the dust to settle. That isn’t even beginning to mention the fears of quantum computing being a real threat to Bitcoin.

People believe that AI is the place where money will be made, and that is also where the regular retail buyers are looking to as well. Over the years, crypto retail buyers have been burned by the narrative of each cycle. At first, it was crypto ICOs, then DeFi, meme coins, NFTs, insolvent companies like Celsius/BlockFi/FTX, and the list goes on. 

We must begin to ask ourselves why these buyers would ever return to the crypto market. And if they did, what would be the factor that would bring them back?

I’m of the first belief that Bitcoin and crypto in general will begin to recover when this market actually goes up for real merit. With Bitcoin becoming a real inflation hedge, or protection against the government. Or other projects in crypto having real use-cases that are needed. 

That is the moment when this market will recover. Bitcoin isn’t finished; instead, we are in a deep bear market. There are better days ahead, and I will continue buying all along the way.

As always, thank you for reading!