A positive upward trend is expected to continue in the crypto market, which may raise the price of bitcoin to levels above $125 thousand. as early as May 2025. The experts surveyed came to this conclusion, noting the risks of falling to $95,000 in June against the backdrop of monetary policy in the United States.

A mostly positive scenario became possible, in their opinion, due to the weakening of the issue of trade wars and fundamental factors in the market of the main cryptocurrency.

The price of bitcoin (BTC) recorded a continuous five-week increase that began in early April, when quotes marked an annual low below $75 thousand.

As of May 12, the value of BTC on the Binance exchange was about $104 thousand, being within a few percent of the historical maximum. During the same time, the capitalization of the entire crypto market has grown by about 40% to almost $3.4 trillion.

All experts noted the positive market sentiment. According to Viktor Pershikov, manager of SWR Capital:

"the situation reflects the influence of fundamental factors that have accumulated over the past few months, including increased demand for cryptocurrencies from large investors in the over-the-counter market, steady inflows into crypto ETFs, and an improvement in the news and political background related to trade wars."

"Following the significant drop in prices in March-April, at the moment we are witnessing a recovery in the crypto market, which may well develop into a continuation of the uptrend, and bring the market capitalization to around $ 4 trillion, and BTC to the level of $ 130 thousand," the expert noted, adding that a deterrent to further growth may be monetary policy conducted by the US Federal Reserve System (FRS).

It is precisely the unwillingness of the Fed to quickly reduce lending rates that can restrain further price growth, Pershikov believes:

"The position of the US president and the Fed chairman is heterogeneous and pursues different goals, giving no chance for new liquidity inflows to financial markets. At the moment, this factor is not enough, so we are seeing only a short-term price increase, which requires new sources of liquidity to continue."

China and Geopolitics

The geopolitical situation in the world also plays a significant role, especially the trade relations of large countries such as China and the United States. Alexander Peresichan, the head of Tehnobit, called the improving situation in the geopolitical arena one of the most important factors influencing the growth of bitcoin:

"Trump has agreed with China on a 90-day tariff reduction. The news gave the financial market a respite from possible shocks. The result is the growth of bitcoin to a local maximum."

Peresichan assigned a separate role to US President Donald Trump, who may "try to correct the mistakes of the past months" that led to a fall in stock markets.:

"The President has repeatedly hinted to investors about the expediency of buying shares now, allegedly on the eve of the rapid growth of the market. There is reason to believe that the politician will try to keep his promises. And against the background of the shock of the tariff war, the effect may be even brighter."

The expert also added that, given all the circumstances outlined, "we should not rule out a bold forecast of bitcoin's growth to $ 125 thousand during May."

Risks and the Fed

Despite the overall positive, experts noted the risks associated with the expectations of certain events. Roman Nekrasov, co—founder of the ENCRY Foundation, noted that traditionally the cryptocurrency market, including bitcoin, shows growth on the eve of significant events - against the background of expectations and speculative investor sentiment.

"It is the expectation, rather than the event itself, that often becomes the key driver of price movement. Market participants pre-calculate the expected consequences of future decisions or news in quotes.

Given the growing share of bitcoin in the total capitalization of the crypto market, it can be assumed that the first cryptocurrency will try to gain a foothold above $ 110 thousand in early June, but then there may be a period of increased volatility when bitcoin will lose some of its gained positions," the expert wrote.

Nekrasov considers the Fed's meeting on the credit rate in the United States, expected in June, to be the main event for potential "profit-taking."

"A week before the Fed meeting, bitcoin holders may prefer to lock in the profits made from the current growth. As a result, bitcoin may return to $100,000 by mid-June and even drop to $95,000.

But if the United States reaches agreements with China and duties continue to decrease, the bitcoin exchange rate will receive additional support and an impetus to growth — then the price will remain in the six-digit zone."