Here we are waiting for the rally, and here, against the background, a new time bomb is ticking…
10% of the largest US companies account for 75% of the total market capitalization. This is more than before the Great Depression.
More than in the dotcom bubble of 2000. And this indicator has continued to grow almost non-stop since 2008.
If you dig deeper, it gets even more interesting.
The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 already make up almost 40% of the index. This means that the market literally rests on the shoulders of several giants. Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon – if they fall, the whole market falls after them.
When the concentration of capital becomes so high, history tells us how it usually ends.
In 2000, the market was overheated because there was too much money in too few stocks. Now we see the same picture, only on an even more extreme scale.
Another worrying point is that small and medium–sized companies practically do not receive the same flow of capital.
There is a feeling that the market is working at two speeds: the giants continue to grow, and the rest can only watch (it looks like BTC and alts, right?)
But it can't go on like this indefinitely.
If something goes wrong, the domino effect can be very severe. History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
The only question is how painful the next verse will be.
P.S. I warned you that the final phase of the market would be the most difficult.