Bitcoin is the currency with the highest market volume and the digital asset that people are placing the most hopes that it will appreciate immensely in the coming years and indeed it will, but many analysts are betting that it will surpass its historic top still this year. This, unfortunately, will not happen and this article aims to explain through graphical analysis why it is unlikely.
I think it is already clear to everyone that bitcoin has been steadily increasing since its launch period. With this, we can apply countless ways to read in order to identify this appreciation, if you have knowledge of the theory of elliot waves can see since 2012 the impulsive and corrective waves perfectly. Just as you can trace a parallel channel or fork to identify this.
Okay, having explained that, we also have to understand that the graphics follow patterns, bitcoin - just like all other graphics - can be patterned by elliot and fibonacci waves; At this moment I used them to find this pattern: whenever the graph will correct the wave 1 of the upper degree it happens to go back exactly at point 0.5, this happened in the two past bull run (I passed this in a past post before the fall happened ), what happens is that ended up falling more than the 0.5 point of fibo that at the time marked 8.500. Still, it helped me prepare my management. So, knowing that the possibility of a price drop was very high, I decided to turn most of my capital into a reserve of value hoping it would fall to buy back at a cheaper price.
Now still on the monthly bitcoin chart I can identify another pattern based on the week the halving occurs. The price has never been able to exceed the high left shortly after halving, since the period when the chart starts to be cataloged on tradingview this turns out to be true, so we have a very long period of time projected for the bitcoin price to exceed $ 20,000 home. As I always say, time is as important as the price for a good analysis, so the possibility here is that wave 1 and 2 (which is priced at around $ 16,000) of higher grade 3 happen before wave 3 that will exceed the maximum.
This is by no means an indication that the price will not rise or continue laterally where we are. The macro prediction of bitcoin is still high as shown in the first graph. This post was made to show that some predictions are quite misleading and that weekly and monthly charts are as important for analysis as the daily.
Thank you for reading :D