Introduction

If you have been with me for a while you know that I have already written a lot about the manipulation that exists in the cryptocurrency market and how it configures itself in bitcoin. after going back to the standard fibonacci level on the bitcoin graph but this did not happen (even the bitcoin movement invalidated the elliot wave count made in that article), a number of reasons may explain why this is the manipulation coming from. bitcoin futures contracts. In this article I intend to bring an analysis based on patterns that have been happening in bitcoin.

Analysis 

Initially we took these points marked in the year 2018 where futures contracts began to be traded on the major CME and CBOE stock exchanges which show evidence of these manipulations, blank with a slash we have the day before the futures contract expires and then we can observe an absurd pump that follows for a while until a fall days before the next futures contract expires.

Ok, you might be thinking that these are isolated events that only occurred in the past. Let's go to the latest data:

Since July we have this data on the contract expiration dates, which default is the fall, just after this event a price spike generating very distinct peaks of valuations (so it is difficult to know how long to wait after the contract expires).

Looking at each maturity in the last four months, counting from the moment the uptrend is over, we have:

• On July 26 we have a 16% drop led to a 34% appreciation.
• On August 30 we have a 12% drop led to a 16% appreciation
• On September 27 we have a 25% drop led to an 8% appreciation
• On October 24 we have a 12% drop led to a 41% appreciation
• Now in November we are seeing a 28% drop that will lead us to a valuation of (???)

Here I bring you the weekly report that CME makes public showing where the traders of this exchange are positioned. I will easily unravel this from now on so that you understand what this tells us about whale placement. It is important to mention that each contract negotiated here represents 5 bitcoins, so we have traded in the November 19th report 6314 contracts with a total of 31570 bitcoins.

Initially we have the Non-Commercial tab that represents traders who are not financial institutions (banks, for example). Making a basic account of the number of contracts with the number of traders positioned we have to:

• each long positioned trader averages 63 active contracts (315 traded bitcoins)
• each short positioned trader averages 134 active contracts (669 bitcoins traded)

Here's a key question: Are traders trading this amount of bitcoin in the market to lose? Let's say these same traders manage risk where they trade 20% of their bitcoins (which is already absurdly high) we could say that long plays have a portfolio of 1575 btc and short players have 3345 btc. Both can be considered whales, but it is still interesting to remember that they are not trading traders and so may be wrong.

Trade traders apparently have not entered into the expiration of these futures contracts, but if you follow this report weekly you notice a pattern among trading traders to "mask" their position of sardines (us) which, in respect of my particular instagram group I will not comment in this post.

Finally, we have these "Nonreportable Position" which are mostly bullish, but we still don't compare bearish trackable players that have 1200 more contracts.

The future scenario is quite uncertain and unpredictable, one can also consider other possibilities, such as the one that shows that disregarding the downward movement between September and October it can be said that bitcoin only made the downward movement of the triangle formed in the corrective movement, giving room to believe that this movement was natural and expected.

Thus, to conclude the article, we have to price on the monthly chart breaking the very important exponential moving average of 8 periods that indicates the upward trend. Note that the price is now below this indicator and if you close the month below it will be indicating a possible extended bear market or starting a new bitcoin pattern, so it is important that it returns the $ 8,000 zone by the end of the month.

Conclusion

The fact that the cryptocurrency market is quite small — if you don't know the cryptocurrency market capitalization is $ 194 billion and it really sounds like a lot, but looking at how many whales there are and how many transactions they do (now I just got a warning from a whale moving 44000 bitcoins (equivalent to $ 310 billion) and the NYSE Euronext stock market capitalization was 21 trillion in 2016 you realize how much we still need to grow to get out of this situation — tells us that manipulation is something real and present. There was a recent article about the Trump administration approving CME bitcoin futures trading to break the bitcoin bubble and, in fact, we had a price drop based on manipulation shortly after the launch of futures contracts in the next one. today. It can also be seen that this has happened in markets like gold in the past and that this effect has been cut over time, now we have to wait for the capital to enter bitcoin so that we will be free of this evil that often catches us by surprise.

Thank you for reading.