market 50

My Thoughts on Current Markets-50


This week was a very critical and important week for the markets. In terms of money markets, there were interest rate decisions of central banks in both America and Europe. Both central banks did not make any changes in interest rates in line with the expectations of the markets. However, both central banks will end interest rate increases again in 2024. In fact, they are slowly giving signals to the markets that they will start reducing interest rates as of the second half of 2024. In the first quarter of 2024, interest rate cuts will begin in America, especially in which month of 2024?

The fluctuation in the dollar index was very important this week, especially as we saw this week that the dollar index, which was at the level of 103.50 dollars before the Federal Reserve Bank of America announced its interest rate decision, dropped to the level of 101.46 dollars. It is currently trying to recover with reaction buying at $101.98. I expect sharp declines in the dollar index in the last months and last quarter of the year. We need to get out of the dollar with the recent rises at the 104 level. We need to establish parity in terms of dollars. I have commented here many times that do not trust the dollar, there will be increases in commodities or instruments such as euro, sterling, gold and silver against it, and even if it is at 101.90 again today, we will all see that the dollar index will fall below the 100 level as of January and the levels in that dollar index are above the 104 level. The investor who converted the dollar into euro at parity, into sterling, into gold or silver, made a great move.

Euro - Dollar parity is currently at 1.0917. But yesterday it rose to 1.10. In particular, there were sags in the euro - dollar parity below the 1.08 level. Last weeks I said it's free, get it. When it hit the 1.10 level this week, you understood what I meant. Again, my expectations for the 1.12 - 1.15 level continue. We will continue to expect a positive trend in the euro - dollar parity in 2024.

An ounce of gold is at the 2033 dollar level. As of now, it has risen to $2045 during the day. It was at the level of 1982 dollars before the interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve of America was announced on Wednesday. It is currently at the level of 2033 dollars. The fact that the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve of the United States, did not increase interest rates and made dovish statements regarding 2024 caused rapid increases in gold prices. I said on Wednesday that it will not fall at this price, these prices will continue to rise. Today is Friday, the FED announced its decision. Gold prices are still continuing this upward trend from where they left off. My expectation for 2024 is 2350 dollars. There is no problem here. 2020 dollar support level, 2070 dollar resistance level, this is the band range I follow.

We also saw good performance on the silver side this week. I often state that I expect an increase of two dollars each, especially when it is at the level of 22 dollars, and with this increase of two dollars each, I expect it to be above the level of 30 dollars in 2024. Although it remained under pressure from the ratio, silver per ounce rose above the $24 level this week. It rose as high as $24.29 and is currently at $24. Again, I continue to wait for the ounce price of silver to reach $24 - $26 levels. Does silver continue to present an opportunity? When we consider the year 2024, yes. If you ask whether you should sell silver, I think it's too early.

There are sharp fluctuations in oil prices. Here it fluctuates in the range of 75 - 80 dollars. It is currently 1% seller at $76. Today, it traded between $75.88 and $77.36. I expect rapid increases. I do not foresee that the declines will be permanent

We also saw sharp fluctuations on the Bitcoin side. It stabilized in the range of $42000 - $43500. It is currently at $42095. The pressure here continues. My prediction regarding the $ 38000 level, which has a high probability of withdrawal, still continues. So, I cannot say that the bull market or uptrend has started. The suppression continues. There is a strong possibility that it will fall below the $40,000 level again. Especially after seeing the statements and moves of central banks this week, investors have a 15-day and 2-week period to make their calculations for 2023. Everyone here should make this calculation. What did I have in January 2023? What do I have today? How much did he bring and how much did he take away in January 2023? We have a 2-week period to calculate this. We need to make a good opinion. This week has been a week in which we focused on central banks. There were no surprises. On the gold and silver side, our expectation of an increase in currencies such as euro and sterling against the dollar was realized. Everything is going as planned.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

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