The Supreme Court told Trump to "stop," but Trump found new tariffs within 24 hours. Markets relaxed, then saw three different tariff regimes. GDP plummeted to 1.4%, inflation remained at 3.0%, and the Fed is in a trap. Junk bond spreads at 2.88%, suggesting "everything is fine," but Warsh is coming in May. The US deployed 120+ aircraft and 2 aircraft carriers to Iran, while oil is still at $67. Gold surpassed $5,000, and Bitcoin lost the cost of new whales ($88.7K).

On February 20th, the Supreme Court overturned Trump's tariffs. With a 6-3 decision, they stated, "The IEEPA law does not give you the authority to impose tariffs." Even conservative judges Gorsuch and Barrett voted against Trump, with Chief Justice Roberts' signature. The $129-200 billion in tariff revenue collected may be refunded. Trump was furious, calling it "shame for Gorsuch and Barrett's families." But Trump didn't immediately give in. That same day, he found a different law (Section 122, Trade Act 1974), and that evening he signed a 10% global tariff. The next day he increased it to 15%! He said he brought it to the "full authority level." The new tariffs are valid for 150 days (until the end of May), and Congressional approval is needed to extend them. But Trump said, "I don't need Congress, I do what I want" (I think he's preparing his own downfall). He's also clear on extradition: "We'll see each other in court for 5 years, no voluntary extradition."

The old tariffs were cancelled, new tariffs came in, but at a lower level. It was 15% for the EU, now it's 15%; Canada was 35%, now it's 15%; China was 145%, now it's 15%. So some countries will be relieved, but some (who previously had agreements and received 10%) will now pay 15%. Moreover, Trump said, "If you made an agreement, you pay the agreement price, not 15%." Malaysia and Cambodia will continue to pay 19%! In short: markets saw three different tariff regimes in 24 hours. The Supreme Court said "yes," but Trump found a new avenue. The uncertainty didn't end, the format changed. The $200 billion restitution process will begin, but Trump won't return it; a court battle has begun. What will happen if Congress doesn't extend the 150-day period at the end of May? Warsh will be at the Fed then, QT will begin (most likely), and tariff uncertainty will be added on top. Although markets may be relieved in the short term, this is only an interim round. The real chaos may begin in May-June.

On February 20th, data from the US surprised everyone: Q4 GDP came in at 1.4%, compared to an expectation of 3%. Core PCE inflation increased by 0.4% monthly, compared to an expectation of 0.3%. The impact of the government shutdown reduced GDP by -1.0 percentage point, meaning it could normally have been 2.4%. But it's still below expectations. Core PCE is at 3.0% (annual), above the Fed's target. As Bloomberg puts it, a "stagflationary shadow" has begun. The Fed is in a trap. A GDP of 1.4% would normally warrant a rate cut, but you can't cut rates when inflation is stuck at 3.0%. The futures market has lowered the probability of a March rate cut to 4.1% (from 26.5%). There's a wait-and-see approach until Warsh arrives in May. A recovery might be expected in Q1 2026, but if QT starts when Warsh arrives, this recovery could be broken. This is what Bloomberg calls a "higher-for-longer trap." GDP is weak, inflation is sticky, and the Fed's hands are tied. A shutdown might be temporary, but inflation seems permanent. A perfect excuse for Warsh: "Inflation is 3%, let's withdraw liquidity."

The ICE BofA US High Yield Spread is currently at 2.88%. It had risen to 4.5% in April 2025 (during the tariff shock), and is now back to normal levels. The 2.5-3.0% range means "everything is fine," and markets aren't expecting a crisis. But this could be misleading. High yields mean that when spreads are low, usually two things happen: either there's no real risk, or the markets are ignoring the risk. Right now, the second scenario is more likely. Warsh is coming in May, QT may start, tariff uncertainty has increased, GDP is weak, and inflation is sticky. But the junk bond market seems to be ignoring all this. A 2.88% spread says "no problem." Historically, when the spread rises above 3.5%, expectations of a crisis begin, and 5%+ means serious panic. We are comfortable with 2.88% right now, but let's not forget: it reached 4.5% in April 2025, it can move quickly. If Warsh initiates QT or the tariff war deepens, the spread could widen again. A low spread indicates that the markets are confident, but this isn't always true. In 2007, the spread was low, then it exploded. Right now, the markets might be thinking, "Even if Warsh comes, nothing will happen." But what if they're wrong?

The Supreme Court's tariff decision and Trump's new tariffs, which increased from 10% to 15% within 24 hours, increased uncertainty, directly impacting gold and silver. Just when markets thought "the tariffs are over," Trump found a new avenue, and demand for safe-haven assets surged. Silver also recovered around $80. It had experienced a 26% drop at the end of January (a volatility surge), and is now benefiting from the tariff chaos, but momentum is weak. Turning to gold, in the short term, closures above 5000 could retest the 5300 and 5600 levels. In the short term, we can expect closures above 70 to push silver higher, and it's likely to start the day positively. WTI oil is in the $62-67 range, but the silence is deceptive. The US has made its largest military buildup against Iran since the 2003 Iraq War. Two aircraft carriers (USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford – the world’s largest), over 120 fighter jets (F-35s, F-22s, F-16s), and dozens of tankers and transport aircraft have been deployed to the region. According to CBS News, NPR, and Bloomberg reports, approximately half of this US air force is currently in a position to target Iran.

On February 19th, Trump said, “If there’s no deal in 10-15 days, bad things will happen.” According to Pentagon sources, they are preparing for “operations that will last for weeks.” The risk in the Strait of Hormuz is serious: 20-25 million barrels of oil pass through it daily; if it closes, oil prices could jump to $80-100. WTI appears calm in the $62-67 range, but the geopolitical risk premium has not yet been priced in. I am not a supporter of war, but the argument is this: the Supreme Court’s tariff decision was supposed to ease market tensions, but Trump imposed new tariffs within 24 hours, compounding the uncertainty. On top of that, the Iranian risk has been added. Gold is at $5,000 because markets see uncertainty on two fronts: tariff chaos.

Wall Street's year-end S&P 500 targets are in the 7,100-8,100 range, averaging around ~7,600. Goldman Sachs expects a 12% total return and forecasts the highest EPS growth in Q2 2026 (14.1%). Bank of America is the most cautious (target 7,100), while Oppenheimer is the most optimistic (target 8,100). For the Nasdaq 100, the main issue is whether AI investments will translate into real earnings. JPMorgan expects 13-15% AI-driven earnings growth, but there is a risk of a conflict between expectations and reality in Q1 and Q3.

Let's be clear, we are still in a bear market for Bitcoin. Looking at technical data in a broader context, we can expect closures below 69K to increase selling pressure. The RSI is below 30 points (weekly), but after falling below 30 for the first time in the previous bear market, it managed to rise above 30 points after 35 days. It's currently at 26.11 points on the weekly chart and continues to fall. However, this time we face a "recession" threat, which Bitcoin hasn't experienced yet. Looking at the on-chain data:
1. Realized Price --> 54.7K
2. LTH Whales --> 41.6K
3. New Whales --> 88.7K
4. Binance User Deposit Address RP --> 58.7K

Bitcoin continues to fall since new whales lost their cost, a classic bear cycle indicator. The two key support levels I will be monitoring from now on are Binance UDA RP and Bitcoin RP (58.7K and 54.7K). The reason is that once the Bitcoin price falls below the cost for new whales, they will at least want to test RP, history shows that. The only support in between is 58.7K as it reaches this level.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.