January's employment data came in strong, inflation cooled, and markets relaxed. But the 2025 revision showed that the job market is much weaker than we thought. Annual employment growth was reduced from +584K to +181K. NFP and CPI are now just noise; the real issue is Warsh getting his QT plan through the Senate in March-April and announcing it. Gold remained below 5000. Fears of AI disruption hit tech, with ServiceNow and Salesforce hitting 52-week lows.

The delayed January employment report was finally released on Wednesday, February 12th. 130K jobs were added in January (expected 70K, revised from the previous 48K). The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% (expected to remain at 4.4%). The real bombshell dropped in the benchmark revisions: total employment growth for 2025 was reduced from +584K to +181K! So, on average, only 15K jobs were added monthly (previously reported as 49K). This is the weakest year since the pandemic year of 2020. The employment data came in "better than expected," but there's a rotten core. The 130K headline looks good, unemployment is falling, but the 2025 revision shows the job market is much weaker than we thought. As Glassdoor economist Daniel Zhao said: "Looking back at 2025, the job market was actually much closer to a standstill."

Markets focused on the headline, ignoring the revision. The Fed found a backdoor with the revision, again and again! Stock futures rose, the dollar strengthened, bond yields increased (above 4.2% for 10Y). The perception that "the job market is still strong" weakened expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, in the long term, this revision shows that 2026 rests on a much weaker foundation. If Warsh implements a QT when he arrives, the already fragile job market could collapse rapidly.

Warsh's nomination for Fed Chairman was announced on January 30, but Senate confirmation is still pending. Republican Senator Thom Tillis stated, "I will not vote for Warsh until the Powell investigation is complete," and initiated a blockade. The confirmation process in the Banking Committee has dragged on until March-April. Powell's term ends in May, meaning Warsh will take over the Fed at the earliest in May. Markets are waiting in uncertainty: Warsh's QT (balance sheet reduction) plan has still not been announced. The Fed's balance sheet is $6.6 trillion, and Warsh wants to shrink it, but by how much, at what speed, and with which assets? These questions remain unanswered. Data such as the February 12 NFP and February 13 CPI created short-term volatility, but the trend is locked in the Warsh Shock.

The NFP and CPI are now "noise"; the real issue is Warsh's QT plan. Employment came in strong, inflation fell, but markets are not reacting to these figures permanently because these data have no impact before Powell leaves. If Warsh accelerates QT when he arrives at the Fed in May, liquidity will be withdrawn, and asset prices will be pressured. Gold, silver, Bitcoin, and stocks are all asking the same question: "How harsh will Warsh be?" If Senate confirmation comes in March-April and QT details are released, then the real volatility will begin. Until then, each data release will create a 1-2 day shock, but the trend will not change. The 1929 question still hangs in the air: 100 years later, can the system withstand a liquidity withdrawal?

Why is 5000 important for gold? We can say that the bulls in gold have lost momentum. It is critical that gold, after its sharp decline, fails to make a rebound and break above 5000. Below and above this level are different worlds. It's a short-term pivot level. Any close below 5000 is likely to increase selling pressure. Gold is currently acting as the locomotive of the markets. High bond yields, high policy interest rates, and a fragile macroeconomy. While gold appears to be a safe haven, we may see selling pressure on it in scenarios where bond yields rise or fall sharply. Every moment gold stays below 5000 is critical! Like the first sheep jumping off a cliff, all will follow.

Silver has been trading in the same range (76-86) for about 18 days. We witnessed silver experiencing a sharper correction following gold, trading in a lower range after a proper break above the Fibonacci 0.5 level. In the short term, if we see closures above 76, the 86 and 92 levels may be tested. However, if it chooses to fill the wicks, we may see 64 again.

Brent maintains its uptrend. Although momentum weakened last week, it is still bullish. The most critical level to watch in the short term is 68.16. A close above this level could lead to a continuation of the upward price movement. Below, 66.35 and 65.08 should be monitored respectively.

The AI ​​disruption theme dominated the week. The perception spread that Anthropic's Claude and OpenAI's Frontier agents were threatening software companies. ServiceNow, Salesforce, Workday, and Atlassian hit 52-week lows. The rotation continued: Tech was sold off while industrials, materials, and energy reached all-time highs. Looking at the technical data, the loss of momentum is evident, and the expected correction is "on hold." The index is stuck in a narrow range between 6790 and 6890. Breakouts to the ups and downs are important. In the short term, it is very difficult to expect a new narrative without seeing a close above 7000.

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