Oil players will gather in London for International Energy Week against the backdrop of a subdued market. U.S. President Donald Trump’s policy changes and the sudden escalation of trade measures, as well as uncertainty surrounding the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, have kept crude futures locked in a tight range this month and recently at their lowest volatility since July. Industry leaders are likely to discuss whether OPEC+ will bring production back or not, as well as other catalysts that could shake the market out of its stupor.
As the focus shifts to U.S. crude oil inventory data due later in the day, I see pricing continuing to be strongly negative. However, WRC statements that Ukraine will transfer 50% of its mines, oil and gas resources to the U.S. continue to support the downtrend. Accordingly, we can expect closings below the 69.01 demand zone to continue to pressure the price towards 65.29 levels. On the other hand, I can say that the optimistic price flow is not evident in the market at the moment.
The USDA’s annual forum will present the first widely-tracked acreage estimate for American crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton. Farm credit agency CoBank reported that corn acres reached a five-year high. Corn remains the most important crop in the United States, the world’s largest producer and exporter of the grain.
In recent months, U.S. bullion prices have risen above their international benchmarks amid fears that gold could be included in Trump’s sweeping tariff measures. While many market participants do not expect the precious metal to be taxed given its monetary status, the large price difference is fueling a rush among dealers, traders and investors to ship gold to the U.S. to capture the premium. This has led to a surge in bullion inventory in Comex warehouses, with stocks increasing by more than 20 million ounces since the U.S. election. Demand, especially after January, has clearly increased. Countries are physically withdrawing gold from refineries without ever putting it on the stock exchanges, by paying an additional premium from refineries and making indirect or direct purchases.
It seems very likely that this situation will continue in the future. The corrections that will come in gold will be a good buying opportunity for those who could not buy before and missed it. There are put options in that area, which is important. When that area breaks out, the next put options are at 3050 - 3080 levels. Those who manage paper gold are trying to suppress the price, but as in silver, their chances of success are low. Even if they suppress it, I do not think that they will be able to go beyond creating a buying opportunity for smart investors for a while, like the previous ones.
The fear that Trump's tariff proposals will trigger a global trade war contributed to gold reaching record levels and gaining approximately 11% since the beginning of the year. From a technical perspective, it is seen that the structures supporting the downtrend are active under the 2928.3 supply zone. Accordingly, it is likely that the declines towards the 2879.4 demand zone will continue with momentum. Although there is no clear technical structure in terms of optimistic price flow, I can say that if the 2928.3 supply zone is broken upwards, the potential with buyers may come into play again.
In silver, this zone is between 33 - 33.50. They need to keep it below this level, if they push it, those who manage paper silver will be caught in a situation you call short squeeze. In other words, I still see declines as a buying opportunity.
For short-termists who want to take positions in US indices, first of all, we need to be above 6010 according to the flow of SP500 options. Above this level, buyers are likely to prevail. For the medium term, 5800 and 5650 will be important, in order to be able to say that we are falling, we need to be persistent especially below 5650. There is still nothing to fear for me. I am just not taking unnecessary risks before Nvidia.
The selling pressure continues to be effective in US indices, especially in the technology sector. When Nasdaq is examined technically, it is seen that the pressure continues under the 21438 supply zone. As long as this level remains below, I predict that pricing may maintain its potential to fall towards 20879 levels. On the other hand, in order for an optimistic price flow to emerge in terms of potential buyers, the 21438 supply zone must first be exceeded. In this case, I can say that the index may accelerate towards 21987 levels and continue its rise.
Following the expected decline in Gross Domestic Product data on the German side, I see that EUR/USD pricing continues its fluctuating course. While the 1.0444 demand area is an important location where buyers are located, I expect the optimistic price flow to continue and support the movement towards 1.0538 levels if it holds on to this area. In terms of downside scenarios, breaking the 1.0444 demand area may cause the balances to change negatively and cause the price to fall to lower levels.
The high inflation data announced by the Bank of England maintains the upward effect on GBP/USD pricing. Technically, while the positive outlook continues on the 1.2592 demand area, the 1.2756 level stands out as a critical resistance point. Although there is no significant pressure at the moment in terms of downside scenarios, there is a possibility that the declines will deepen to the 1.2456 demand area if the 1.2592 level is broken.
The selling pressures caused by the weak data flow in the US in USD/JPY are currently horizontal. While the 149.298 demand zone stands out as a critical level where buyers are located, if this zone is maintained, the optimistic price flow can be expected to continue towards the 151.515 levels. On the other hand, the 149.298 demand zone must first be broken for the downward potential to gain strength. In such a scenario, we can say that the decline towards the 147.387 levels may gain momentum.
While the volatility continues with the rapid increase in Bitcoin ETF outflows, bear market concerns are growing. While hopes such as state-level Bitcoin Reserves also fail, the effect of the negative momentum gained under the 93388 supply zone technically continues strongly. If this suppression continues, the 82733 levels will be closely monitored as a critical support point. On the other hand, while there is no clear optimistic price flow in the market yet, I predict that if the 93388 supply area is broken strongly, the buying potential may gain momentum towards the 105716 levels.
Although the Gross Domestic Product data in Germany met expectations yesterday, the economic contraction did not cause a significant decrease in pricing. When the DAX is examined technically, while the 22697 supply area is in a seller position, it is seen that the prices have the potential to retreat towards the 22264 levels as a result of possible reactions from the region. On the other hand, although there is no clear picture in terms of optimistic price flow at the moment, I predict that if the current area is broken upwards, the buyers will gain strength and carry the price towards the 22947 levels.
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