The ounce of gold has reached an all-time high, exceeding $2,750. Technically, we have entered important regions. Yes, gold indicators may seem very inflated, but when we consider past data, we may not have witnessed a real rise in gold. Frankly, minor corrections are normal. In order for the upward trend to be disrupted, the 2,300-2,400 levels should be cut down. I do not expect these levels to be reached in 2024 and 2025 without at least the 3,100 and 3,500 levels being seen. Unfortunately, it is not wise to look for bottoms and tops in metal commodities. 2,660 is an important support for those who do short-term business. If we are above this level, 2,800 and 2,850 are inevitable. But even this will be a small movement in my opinion.
We have seen an ONS moving upwards around $700 since 2080 under the pretext of war and tension. The Iran operation is also over. There is no action until the US elections are over and in November. If it moves in the direction I expect, the exit should give 3/1 back. I expect a pullback to around 2650 this week. My main target is 2578. We are probably at the beginning of the big metal commodity rally. While gold continues to rise slowly, silver, platinum and similar products that are left behind will rise.
Silver ounce reached the 34.80 region last week. Now we should advance to $ 39 with minor corrections. Technically, the 32.50 - 20 region is an intermediate support. The main support is now $ 30. I will meet every drop from these levels to 30 with a purchase. I have a target price of 50+ dollars in the medium term (within 2025) with an intermediate target of 39. Silver should pull back to around 30.80.
Brent oil continues in the short falling channel. The upper band of the channel is $ 78. If it sees an extreme increase with war and similar news, I will start taking aggressive transactions in the direction of selling. But the target price expectation is $ 50. Every exit continues to be a selling opportunity. Since the oil facilities were not hit, this week should be the seller side. I expect a decline to around 72.50. If 72.50 is broken, the decline will deepen.
Bitcoin bull flag formation was broken upwards and made a partial re-test. The way is now clear. The 60000 level should be broken downwards for technical deterioration. If 60000 is not broken and we are pushing 69000 - 70000, a new peak movement can occur at any moment. Probably waiting for the US elections. In between, sales are coming around 2000 - 3000. We are in a market open to manipulation. If there is no setback this week, I expect a reaction to around 70200. I expect a pullback from this point to around 68700 and then to go to the 74000 target.
I was expecting the reaction of the 17% decline from the USD - JPY level of 162 to 152. However, both Dxy and JPY did not allow the decline and brought them to higher levels and spoiled the chart. Here, the level of whether to continue or not is 156. Up to this point, selling positions can be tolerated. However, if it closes above 156 for 1 day, I will get away from the positions. There may be other actions that we do not know about. I am cautiously optimistic. USD/JPY should rise to 153.70 and then fall to 148.50.
Dxy continued its horizontal upward movement last week. Its approach to the danger zone led to sales in many products. Both war tensions and the fact that these tensions were notified to the US in advance brought the markets into a very volatile cycle. Now the US elections are approaching and I do not think that missiles will be allowed on the market side. I expect Trump to be the winner of the elections, but assassinations may continue.
The technical level on the Dxy side is 105. If we cannot settle above 105, it will be exposed to gravity. In the conjuncture until the second quarter of 2024 and 2025, the strategy of selling DXY and buying everything else continues. For relief, 103.20s should be broken down. The rise may continue until around 104.90. I expect a pullback from this point to around 103.50. The Euro should fall to 1.0760 and then 1.09. The GBP should fall to 1.2890 and then 1.3050.
We closed last week with seller pressure in Dax. Both Lagarde's speeches and signs of Europe's progress towards disinflation are forcing both the currency and the stock market to make corrections. Technically, 19200 is still an important level, if we are above it, there is no problem, if we are below it, sales may deepen. I expect this week to be a reaction week. In fact, maybe these reactions can lift the entire market with the right volume. In short, as long as it stays above 19200, the target is 20000.
Dow Jones was the first index to fall with the war news given to the US market in advance. Technically, 41600 is important. Falls up to this level are normal. If we cannot see permanence below this level, it means we will aim for new peaks again.
Nasdaq saw an all-time high of 18690. Despite all the stress in the market, the only stock market that has stood tall is Nasdaq, while all stock markets around the world have been heading downwards last week. If there is no extreme development this week, I expect Nasdaq to renew its new peak and the remaining indexes should also be moving upwards. Technically, 19700 is an important support. Unless this point is broken, all declines will continue to be buy. The short-term target expectation is between 21000 and 21500. In the medium term, we can talk about levels of 23000 - 25000 - 27000.
Tesla (TSLA) made investors happy with its strong balance sheet that surpassed Wall Street estimates in the third quarter. Lumen Technologies (LUMN) announced that it will significantly increase Meta's network capacity and support its artificial intelligence goals within the scope of its partnership with Meta Platforms (META). Tech giants Nvidia (NVDA), Google (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) showcased AI tools that they claim can significantly reduce the administrative burden on healthcare professionals at the HLTH healthcare technology conference in Las Vegas this week. Alibaba (BABA) announced significant progress with Quanzhantui, a digital marketing tool that it launched earlier this year and aims to increase revenue on its Taobao and Tmall platforms. Arm Holdings (ARM) threatened to revoke its chip design license to Qualcomm (QCOM).
Tesla (TSLA) shares gained 21.92% for the week after the company reported better-than-expected earnings and strong guidance from CEO Elon Musk. Genuine Parts (GPC) shares lost 20.26% for the week after the company reported earnings that fell well short of Wall Street estimates and revised its expectations downward.
JMP Securities upgraded Snap (SNAP) from “IN-PUBLIC PERFORMANCE” to “OUT-PUBLIC PERFORMANCE” and set a 12-month average target price of $17. Baird upgraded Quest Diagnostics (DGX) from “NEUTRAL” to “OUT-PUBLIC PERFORMANCE” and from a 12-month average target price of $152 to $182. Piper Sandler upgraded BXP (BXP) from “NEUTRAL” to “HIGH PORTFOLIO WEIGHT” and raised the 12-month average target price of $78 to $105. Wells Fargo upgraded Carvana (CVNA) from $175 to $250 and maintained the “HIGH PORTFOLIO WEIGHT” rating.
On Monday, Cadence Design (CDNS) Earnings and Ford Motor (F) Earnings will be released. On Tuesday, US JOLTS, US CB Consumer Sentiment, Alphabet (GOOGL) Earnings, Visa (V) Earnings, AMD (AMD) Earnings, Novartis (NVS) Earnings, McDonald’s (MCD) Earnings, Pfizer (PFE) Earnings, Chubb (CB) Earnings, Mondelez (MDLZ) Earnings, BP (BP) Earnings, PayPal (PYPL) Earnings, Chipotle Mexican (CMG) Earnings will be released. On Wednesday, US ADP Nonfarm Payrolls, Microsoft (MSFT) Balance Sheet, Meta (META) Balance Sheet, Eli Lilly (LLY) Balance Sheet, AbbVie (ABBV) Balance Sheet, Caterpillar (CAT) Balance Sheet, Amgen (AMGN) Balance Sheet, Starbucks (SBUX) Balance Sheet will be released. On Thursday, US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Apple (AAPL) Balance Sheet, Amazon (AMZN) Balance Sheet, Mastercard (MA) Balance Sheet, Merck (MRK) Balance Sheet, Uber (UBER) Balance Sheet will be released. On Friday, US Nonfarm Payrolls, US Unemployment Rate, US Average Hourly Earnings, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US Manufacturing PMI, ExxonMobil (XOM) Balance Sheet, Chevron (CVX) Balance Sheet will be released.
The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.
