We are watching the USDJPY parity approaching 150 levels. Today, both unemployment data and inflation data stand out as major data expected to affect the parity's future. Especially if the Core CPI comes in parallel or below expectations, this could be positive for the interest rate cut in November, while if it comes in high, it could extend the term in terms of the expectation of a decrease in the USDJPY parity.
Apart from the movement of the dollar, the Japanese yen side has also started to feel pressure from within itself because Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will soon start the campaign process for the general elections, which have policy relations with the Bank of Japan. Ishiba had recently said that the country may not be ready for an interest rate hike, which has pushed the pricing of the next interest rate hike to January 2025 and beyond.
After the Japanese elections, the outlook for the BOJ will be clearer, but I still think they will want to see the data. If the Japanese CPI figures remain above 2%, it will be a situation that will strengthen their hand. If they remain below 2%, they may wait for an interest rate hike.
When we look at the implied volatility of USDJPY, it continues to move below the carry trade shock we experienced in August. Those who trade momentum are not yet taking full positions as volatility remains low, they will shape their positions according to the data. Although I expect the decline to continue due to the interest rate cuts to come from USD in the medium term, the term of the decline remains uncertain, so I myself am still taking calmer positions rather than aggressive positions.
Despite the inflation data coming in higher than expected, it is seen that pricing cannot exhibit a hawkish stance. From a technical perspective, although the 147,724 demand zone is an important level for buyers, it is expected that possible reactions from this zone will remain limited on pricing. PPI data is at the center of the market. If the 147,724 demand zone is broken downward, prices may decline towards 145,373 levels. On the other hand, it is seen that it should remain above the 147,724 demand zone for buyer movements to continue; in this case, there may be a potential rise towards 150,560 levels. In addition, the data flow to be announced from Japan may also have a significant impact on pricing.
With the US inflation and unemployment data coming in differently than expected, pricing is following a limited movement in EURUSD. The limited recovery below the 1.0969 supply zone may support the continuation of the rise to 1.1046 levels if this zone breaks upwards. There is no clear situation for downward movements at the moment. However, if the US producer price index data to be announced during the day comes out positive than expected, the possibility of declines continuing towards 1.0885 levels may arise with possible reactions from 1.0969 levels.
I observe that the GBPUSD parity has been following a horizontal course for a long time and maintains its strength above the 1.2978 demand zone. With possible purchase reinforcements from this zone, pricing may be expected to continue its horizontal compression towards the 1.3133 supply zone. However, for movements in the opposite direction, caution will be required due to the impact of the Bank of England's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data to be announced during the day and the US producer price index (PPI) data. If these data cause the downward dominance to continue, there may be a possibility of a decline towards 1.2853 levels with the breakdown of the 1.2978 demand zone.
The failure of the US inflation data to meet expectations led to positive movements in ounce gold pricing. Compensating for the declines at the beginning of the week, exceeding the 2646 level strengthened the possibility of an upward dominance towards 2689.4 levels. However, I do not currently observe any negative scenario. Possible reactions from the 2646 level may increase the possibility of a decline towards 2588.9 levels. It is important to stay above the 2646 level for the upward movements to continue.
After the fluctuations in oil due to stock data, while attention has shifted to developments in the Middle East, it is seen that pricing continues its upward movements. Exceeding the 77.46 supply zone may allow pricing to continue its rise towards 80.12 levels. However, in terms of sales reactions, it is likely that the price will leave this situation in the background with its current momentum. In possible reactions below the 77.46 supply zone, the possibility of the price falling towards 74.02 levels can also be taken into consideration.
While the depth of corrections seen in crypto assets continues, it is emphasized that the 57996 demand zone in Bitcoin is an important support level for buyers. If this zone is held, it seems likely that the buying potential will continue and prices will rise towards 65645 levels. However, in terms of bearish scenarios, if the 57996 level is broken, the possibility of prices falling towards 51352 levels may technically come to the fore. These levels stand out as critical follow-up zones depending on market sentiment.
The fact that prices in the DAX are gaining strength under the 19361 supply zone due to the effect of purchasing reinforcements directs attention to the CPI data to be announced by Germany. If the 19361 zone is exceeded, the possibility of prices rising to a new peak, up to 19614 levels, increases. However, although there does not seem to be a clear risk in terms of bearish scenarios at the moment, possible reactions from the 19361 zone may pull the short-term fluctuation to 18919 levels in a horizontal course. In this case, it should be monitored carefully considering the market sentiment and general trend.
The fact that US inflation data did not meet expectations and that upward inflation strengthened the expectation of higher rate cuts in the future periods has a significant impact on the market. Depending on this development, the testing of the 19916 demand zone in Nasdaq may allow buyers to be active in the market again and the potential for an increase towards 20558 levels may come to the fore. However, if the downward dominance comes to the fore again, the 19916 demand zone should be monitored as a reference point and if this zone is broken, the possibility of prices falling to 19335 levels may arise.
The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.
