This week, the important global interest rate decision of the central banks of America, England and Japan is. Of course, the FED will be the determinant here. The FED's interest rate decision is on Wednesday. While 25 basis points was priced in at over 80%, suddenly The Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos wrote an article and said that employment data was getting worse and that the FED could cut interest rates by 50 basis points. He is not an ordinary reporter. Those who follow the market know that he was one of the first to give the signal for the FED's first 75 basis point interest rate increase. He is known as the FED's spokesperson in the market. Of course, when he writes something like this, 25 basis points is priced in at 83%, 50 basis points at 17%, and 50 basis points at 50% right now. There is actually uncertainty; while the FED has been very transparent in terms of predictability until now, it may clarify its position a little more before the interest rate decision this week. But maybe it does not want the market to relax too much.

Inflation data has been announced. Core PCE came in a bit higher, 0.2 was expected, 0.3 came. The headline is actually falling rapidly. In other words, it came from 2.9 to 2.5, but you know, the sticky part. It seems like it will be in our lives for a long time. It gave such a feeling and suddenly a purchase came out of nowhere. But of course, was this a reaction to squeeze the excessive shorts that had accumulated? Or do they really not want to give the market away? We will see the answer to this after the uncertainty of September and October. September and October are the months because the most important event in the world right now is the American elections and there is a neck and neck election. In other words, right now, after the debate, after the debate program on TV, Kamala's votes increased a bit more. Trump's Trump Media shares saw serious sales during the week. As if Kamala is a tick or two ahead. But there is a neck and neck race and generally when we look at the last 20 years, September and October have been ups and downs in such neck and neck races. In fact, when we look at statistics, especially the fear index, the volatility index called VIX, peaked in October during election years.

And interest rate cuts are entering our lives. Of course, I don't want 50 basis points. As I said before, I was already expecting an interest rate cut before the election. Again, before the election, such a catastrophic thing is not wanted right now. Obviously, I attribute this week's purchase to that as well. Otherwise, technically, the picture was bad, to be honest. I had already stated that such a sharp decline could occur based on that. But they squeezed a short seller this week. Now, of course, the continuation is important this week, the picture did not close badly, to be honest. So, there is no need to be obsessed with such analysis. I think the trend is still upwards at the moment, but of course, it closed at resistance. For example, there is a possibility of a double top around SP500 5670. If it breaks there and stays above it, it may easily go to 6000 and above. I definitely think it will go at some point, but before that, there are gaps at 4200 - 4400 that it left below. Although the picture is not bad, there are risks and I think September - October will be rough and bumpy, as I have just stated.

There are also resistances at 19540 - 19700 on the Nasdaq side. There is a gap around 20200 above and here is the peak at 20800 right now. It seems like we will continue up, in other words, the technical picture is up regardless of this decision. It seems like it will go up one more round, and when we look at it statistically, even if there is a collapse after the FED interest rate cuts, there has always been such a rally in the first weeks. In other words, an enthusiasm has been created. Therefore, although the picture is not bad, accepting that there are risks, there is a deflationary wave starting from China, and the Chinese data announced last night came out bad. This is currently having repercussions on the European Union countries. It even affects the European Union's own border problems. Of course, its details are completely different, a little more political, but when we look at the German side, the data there is bad too. There is a risk of spreading to America in the coming period. If you are aware of the sudden 50 basis points increase, at least when you look at the justification, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which the FED sees as its favorite, is falling rapidly and employment data is deteriorating.

I don't think there is such a big stress situation. These are just parameters that need to be watched and followed carefully. The gross domestic product projection does not look bad at the moment. The Jolts data is still positive, not negative. Here, under the leadership of Nvidia, they still haven't released it. Below 102, 95, below that the decline would really have been sharp, but they didn't release it, after all, the trend is fundamental. Therefore, until we drop below the support here, for example, on the Nasdaq side, 18400 weekly and 17750 last support. Until we drop below these, the expectation of a sharp correction at least remains in the background. Considering that the volatility index always peaks in October during election years, September - October will probably be a real saw market. But there is also election uncertainty. After all, there is a neck and neck election.

Trump says he will give tax cuts to the rich. Kamala Harris says she will impose a 28% tax. Now, when she imposes a tax, it will also be reflected in the profitability of that company. So to what extent will it affect liquidity here? After all, the market is driven by liquidity and sentiment, to be honest. In other words, the sentiment and liquidity there, in other words, in a place where there is no liquidity, volatility is getting stronger, declines are getting stronger, liquidity is important. Now, in summary, I still think that declines in spot should really be seen as buying opportunities. Although if the decline I expected this week had happened, I would still consider it as a buying opportunity and I would have said that, to be honest, if it had continued. But they haven't left it below the supports at the moment, there are risks. There should be hedge positions, but I would like to state that there is nothing to panic about, at least in stocks that you carry in the long term in spot. But there is also a risk of downward decline. In other words, a sharp correction before reaching this support is not realistic at the moment.

Bitcoin is trying to turn upwards, it made a mini inverse head and shoulders. There is an inverse head and shoulders formation with a target around 64000. But of course, if 70000 is passed in Bitcoin, the rise will start. They are still trading within a certain range before that is passed.

There is no problem with ounces of gold above 2500, but if this stock market sells, maybe it will get its share. Ounce of gold closed well this week. In other words, ounces of gold were also bought by the defensive sectors they call consumer stables in America. They give an air like a recession is approaching or they give an air like it is too late for something. But for now, it should be said that there is nothing to panic about in the short term, at least in terms of data. But still, there is still upward potential in ounces of gold.

I think that upward margins will still be good in silver and palladium. Therefore, maybe oil should be followed well here. They did not release it below $68 this round, but if it gradually falls below 68, I would say that demand has been seriously damaged. Then we will evaluate the risks. Right now, there is at least a possibility of an upward reaction there. This is the summary of this week. In other words, FED interest rate decision on Wednesday, Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday, Japan on Friday. Japan should be followed especially. The strengthening of the Japanese Yen is a serious change of path, a change of strategy for the carry trade. Here in Japan, it was now cheap, borrowing at near-zero interest rates, the cost of money was near zero there, and borrowing from there and buying technology stocks on Nasdaq from there. Now this thing has suffered. Now, even though the FED will lower interest rates, the interest rate decision in Japan should be followed in terms of carry trade. According to my research, no movement in interest is expected on Friday. But if you remember, one night, a statement by the Central Bank regarding interest rates crashed the stock markets by 12.5% ​​and Japan's impact was clearly felt there. Therefore, I think the Japanese Yen should also be followed especially in the period from now on.

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