The New York Stock Exchange closed with a decline. While nonfarm employment data in the US indicated that the labor market was continuing to soften, the last trading day of the week saw a negative trend in stock markets. The S&P 500 index, which lost 4.3 percent weekly, had its worst week since March 2023. The Nasdaq index also recorded its weakest weekly performance since June 2022, down 5.8 percent. The weekly decline in the Dow Jones index also approached 3 percent. Nonfarm employment in the country increased by 142 thousand people in August, falling below expectations, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.3 percent to 4.2 percent. Average hourly earnings, which the US Federal Reserve (FED) closely monitors, also increased by 0.4 percent to $35.21.
Immediately after the release of employment data, the possibility that the FED could cut interest rates by 50 basis points this month increased, while by the end of the day, expectations that a 25 basis point rate cut would be made in September came to the fore. While concerns about the health of the US economy caused investors to abandon risky assets, the loss of value in the shares of major technology companies drew attention. Tesla's shares fell by 8.5 percent, Alphabet and Nvidia's shares by 4 percent, Amazon's shares by 3.7 percent, Meta's shares by 3.2 percent, Microsoft's shares by 1.6 percent and Apple's shares by 0.7 percent. I would like to state that the intensive data agenda will be followed, especially the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision, inflation in the US and Germany, growth in Japan and industrial production in the UK.
It is now possible that we are nearing the end of the dollar dominance. A persistence above 102 in the DXY could take us to the 104 level. The sixth test will be the fall below 100 and this will end with a fall to 96 and then 90.
We came to 70 dollars in Brent oil, now this is a troubled area. If it does not get a serious reaction from here, the new band movement of Brent side will be 50 - 70. In the long term, I maintain my expectation of 30 dollars and I open a sell for every movement above 80.
Nasdaq approached the critical area again. 17600 has become very important now, if it can manage to stay above this level in the declines (my expectation is in that direction), we can probably see a very fast return and a new peak movement will start. Roughly, my positivity continues as long as 17000 is not broken and I maintain my expectation of a new peak. The size of the work may change below 17000.
We entered a correction again after the new peak movement in Dax. The level we will follow carefully is the 18200 -18400 range. I do not see a problem as long as it stays above this level. However, if the 18000 level is broken again, a movement of 17500 and 17000 seems inevitable. For positivity, it should jump above 18800 and start the 20000 - 21000 movement.
The 2540 - 2470 movement in ounce gold is stuck and looking for direction. A break of 2470 will bring us back to the 2420 and 2380 area. A break of 2540 will bring the 2580 - 2700 movement. The horizontal band provides good opportunities for those chasing the movement. Even if the lower band is broken and there are declines, I expect a movement of 2700 or even 3100. It is seen that ounce gold entered the transaction at $2497.11 levels this morning. On the precious metal side, I see a pricing just below the $2500 level that I currently follow. In a positive scenario, I will of course be following the $2529 - 2531 area above. I believe that permanent pricing above the 2510 level may be needed for the positive expectation to be reinforced. In the negative scenario, I will be following the $ 2494 - 2471 region below. In this context, the $ 2500 level is a critical threshold level, but pricing below or above it may have an impact on the direction the precious metal will draw.
Silver ounce is moving within a large narrowing triangle. At the top, 30.50 and below 27 are important levels. Such formations are usually broken upwards, but investors get tired because there is a lot of back and forth. Roughly, there is no problem if it is above $ 26. The target is updated as 32 - 35 - 37 - 41. However, if 26 is broken, it may tire them a little more.
Bitcoin, while liquidity - crisis - recession, the price is still very weak. The 50 level below was important. If that point is lost, a 46000 movement may occur. On the positive side, movements above 62000 - 63000 are now needed. If we can reach those levels, we will probably see a new peak. Altcoins are no longer reacting very strongly to the decline in eth and btc. So we can say that these are the bottoms. I expect a serious movement in October and November. While everything is going up, btc and eth are far behind. The money coming out of Nasdaq is not going into bonds either. Sooner or later, we will see a serious rise.
The EURUSD parity is trading at $1.1074 this morning. We left the employment data in the US behind. Non-farm employment in the country increased by 142 thousand people in August, falling short of expectations. Important data for this week includes the Consumer Inflation for August, which will come from the US. Tomorrow evening, US presidential candidates Trump and Harris announced that they will hold their first live debate on television. I will follow the European Central Bank ECB interest rate decision on Thursday. In the Euro-Dollar parity, I observe a pullback from the 1.1156 level, which was tested as the weekly high.
Japan, which has been saying it does not want interest in USD-JPY for years, has made the market volatile by making interest rate announcements every week. The upward trend was broken and we are now in a downward trend. It should not be forgotten that the BoJ increased interest rates after 30 years. The possibility of seeing utopian JPY figures is on the table. I am thinking of evaluating NZDUSD a little more for 2024 - 2025 rather than staying on the euro and sterling side. If the 3-year resistance zone is passed and prices do not come below 0.59, 0.75 is the first target.
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