When I look at the currencies of developing countries (Emerging Markets), I observe a divergence against the US Dollar. The market's attention is turned to the private sector employment data to be announced from the US on Thursday. Pricing in EURUSD continues to seek balance above the 1.1033 demand zone. If it remains above this zone, the probability of an upward trend towards 1.1058 levels may increase. On the other hand, in terms of negative scenarios, if the 1.1033 demand zone is broken downwards, prices are likely to decline towards 1.0944 levels.
The EURUSD parity is trading at $1.1055 this morning. Yesterday, the US stock market was closed due to Labor Day. Today, all eyes will be on the US manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), ISM manufacturing PMI and construction spending. Another important macro data of this week is the US Non-Farm Employment and Unemployment Rate. The Classic Dollar Index is around 101.7. I can say that the EURUSD parity has increased by 1.32% in the last month's performance. The important levels of the day in the euro dollar parity can be noted as 1.0996 and 1.1095.
The Bank of England's suspension of the interest rate reduction process has created uncertainty in the markets. The impact of the movements in the dollar on GBPUSD pricing is becoming more apparent. In this context, the 1.3066 demand zone is considered an important reference point. If this zone is broken, the probability of prices falling towards 1.2960 levels may increase. On the other hand, although there is no clear signal in terms of optimistic price movements at the moment, if the 1.3066 demand zone is maintained, there may be a potential for prices to rise towards 1.3230 levels.
While USDJPY focuses on the ADP preliminary data to be announced on Thursday, the positive momentum gained by the pricing continues below the 148.626 supply zone. Testing this area shows that possible reactions should be monitored carefully. If there is a pullback from this area, prices can be expected to decline towards the 142.937 demand area. In terms of optimistic price movements, if the 148.626 level is exceeded, there may be a potential for prices to rise towards the 152.842 levels due to purchasing reinforcements.
In the medium-term gold ounce outlook, the dominance of sellers is increasing in line with expectations. Declines below the 2524.7 supply area have gained momentum. It seems likely that pricing below this area will continue to decline depending on US data and decline to the 2463.5 demand area. In terms of optimistic price movements, it is worth noting that if the 2524.7 level is broken upwards, the 2550.2 supply area should be monitored. In this context, it is important to closely monitor US data during the week.
The ounce of gold is trading at $2495.20 this morning. When I look at the weekly performance on the ounce gold side, I observe that the pressure continues with a -1.19% pullback. While data on the employment market is awaited, volatility may increase on the gold front. In the short term, ounce gold may come to the forefront at 2490 and 2482 levels below the 2500 dollar level. Above the 2500 - 2510 region, eyes will once again be turned to the 2531.62 peak level. During the day, ISM manufacturing PMI and price index can be monitored due to their possible effects. Due to reasons such as the dollar index gaining some strength and the pressure of increasing bond yields, ounce gold may see continuation of pullbacks.
While the effect of excess supply in oil continues strongly negatively, the 71.46 demand region is in an important position for buyers. However, the fact that this region limited pricing as a result of previous reactions and the expectations that oil production will not change this year in the statements made by Iraq may support the negative dominance. In this case, if the 71.46 demand zone is broken, the probability of the price falling towards 69.38 levels will increase. On the other hand, if the current zone is held, I can say that prices may find support for an upward movement towards 74.60 levels.
The decline in the European Central Bank's inflation data may cause the prices in the DAX to follow a negative trend. However, there is no clear direction for now. The 18543 demand zone is an important support point for buyers; if this zone is tested again, it may support the price to rise to 19443 levels. In terms of negative movements, if the 18543 demand zone is broken, there is a possibility that the prices will fall towards 17859 levels.
The horizontal trend and squeezes in pricing continue on Nasdaq. If the 19594 supply zone is exceeded, prices may be supported to rise towards 19971 levels. However, there is no clear signal for now in terms of negative movements. Reactions from the current zone may cause prices to pull back towards the 19,076 demand zone.
Global crypto investment products saw a weekly outflow of $305 million. According to CoinShares' latest report, global crypto investment products at asset managers such as Ark Invest, Bitwise, BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, ProShares and 21Shares returned to a total net outflow of $305 million last week, following a net inflow of $543 million the previous week. CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill said the outflows occurred due to "widespread negative sentiment" as stronger-than-expected economic data in the US "reduced the likelihood of a 50 basis point interest rate cut." “We continue to expect the asset class to become increasingly sensitive to interest rate expectations as the Fed approaches a pivot,” Butterfill added.
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