It was a very active closing. Especially after Nvidia's balance sheet on Friday, a good balance sheet was announced as I expected during the week. Frankly, the macroeconomic data was also good, but an environment was created where sellers were strong during the week. Especially in Nvidia, the consensus was around 80% buy, there was no sell. But then it fell by 6% in two days. Of course, I am talking about a stock worth 3 trillion. A 10% move is around 300 billion dollars, the move in just one day affects everyone.
After the famous bear trap on the Nasdaq side, there was a sharp upward purchase in Nasdaq. When I look at the levels here, I see that 19500 is an important support. I think it is necessary to open a hedge position when a sharp move occurs during the week, especially on Friday. The logic there is this; I had mentioned that especially Nvidia was at 118 levels, if it had fallen below 118, there are Nvidia short ETFs, short can be opened with at least 15% - 20% of the stock in the spot, in other words, a decline can be played here. It is possible to make money in the fall. In other words, there may be those who do not understand the technical terms. Spot stocks can be held because the main direction is up. But since we do not know the exact movement of the fall in this way, at least a hard needle can be thrown. In such needles, at least there are short positions for hedging purposes, in other words, for insurance purposes, I open them with 15% - 20% so that the goods in the spot do not melt in the falls. Frankly, a nice candle came at the closing here right now.
There is a possibility of a double top in the S&P technical view, but they have broken this double top possibility up in the past. Therefore, although September was seasonally weak in S&P, I still think there is potential for an upside here. As I have just mentioned, it is useful to open a short only if the formation during the day starts to contain downward risks. At least opening a tactical short with a hedge purpose such as 15% - 20% means more professional portfolio management. I can say that the permanence above 5680 in S&P is important. IWM Russell 2000 etf, especially after the interest rate cut in America, although there is a seller pressure on the Nasdaq side, from time to time the Dow Jones has at least a 20% potential. The Dow Jones is breaking records every day. Therefore, I think that interest rate cuts here will benefit the side boards. Therefore, I like the formation here a little more. I wanted to note that such etfs can be considered, the side board etf.
100 is an important level in the dollar index. If it falls below 100 here, the dollar index will fall to 95. However, this is likely to react for a week or two. Therefore, it is useful to follow above 100 - below 100 here.
In ounce gold, Bank of America said to buy gold despite the high prices. Whenever such institutions use such ambitious statements, that instrument starts to stutter. The ounce gold closed above 2500 dollars. Its monthly closing is good, but permanence above 2500 dollars is important here. There is a possibility of a short-term correction. There has not been much movement in ounce gold, we should only look at it as above/below $2500. I think there is no change in medium and long-term upward targets. But in the short term, the statements of such institutions seem to show us that there may be a correction.
There was such a mini flag formation in Bitcoin last week above $64000 at 69000 - 70000 levels. They took it up to 65000, made a fake breakout there and gave it down. That place is actually resistant on the daily. Therefore, since the current appearance in Bitcoin is in the form of descending peaks, I honestly see it as the bears in control here, I see it as the sellers in control. If it had been 70000 and above last week, we could have broken the drop and gone above a nice new 100000. But I think the sellers are in control right now. 50000 is still a possibility here. There is a possibility of falling to 45000 below. As I said, the sellers are strong in appearance. Here, unfortunately, I want coins to go up. But the outlook is still in favor of sellers. Frankly, I think the coin side is waiting for its time.
Brent oil has fallen by nearly 5% this week. Brent oil is still down, the global economic weakening continues, especially in China. Inflation in the European region was also low this week. Although America's data is coming in well right now, there is an election. I had been saying for months before the election that they would enter with a very strong economy. But in the sales in the stock markets, we should not put the economy and the stock market in the same category. The economic data is quite positive. Of course, the stock market may also be pricing the future here. After all, price is a leading indicator, especially when we look at China and Europe.
There may be an employment market in America, especially after the election, in the upcoming period. There may be deflation and hopefully there will be no recession. Because when there is a recession, stock markets can really sell. During interest rate cuts, stock markets continue to rise if there is no recession. There is still no deterioration in the technical outlook in stock markets. There is only a short position occasionally and the speed changes, it becomes volatile. For example, on Friday, they pressed the VIX into that normally volatile market. So, control means that the bulls are still strong there, the last purchase was good. It is necessary to follow the VIX as well. There is such a nuance there. The employment data for the next week is important on the American side on Friday the 6th. I do not want the unemployment figures in America to go up sharply.
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