While the market's attention is focused on the growth data to be announced by Germany, it is observed that the negative dominance of prices in EURUSD continues. The suppression in the 1.1096 demand region may trigger a decline towards 1.0985 levels with closings below this region. However, it is necessary to stay above the 1.1096 demand region for optimistic price movements. If this level is held above, the probability of prices rising towards 1.1241 levels may increase.
In this period when the Bank of England's expectations for stabilizing inflation are at the forefront, the positive dominance gained by prices in GBPUSD is supported by the weakness of the dollar. The 1.3203 level constitutes a critical resistance point for sellers and if the price exceeds this level, it may limit the upward movement. However, if the prices close above this region, an increase towards 1.3330 levels may be possible. In terms of negative scenarios, selling pressures from current levels may cause the price to retreat towards 1.3066 levels.
The Japanese Finance Minister's statements that he will continue to hike interest rates have increased the selling pressure on USDJPY and have been effective in pricing. Currently, I am observing a search for balance above the 142.937 demand zone. Short-term positive movements may be seen above this zone and there is a possibility that prices may rise towards 148.626 levels. However, in terms of bearish scenarios, important US data to be announced within the week will be monitored. In line with this data, if the 142.937 demand zone is broken, there may be a possibility that prices may decline to 139.601 levels.
Jackson Hole movement continues in the gold market. Even investors who thought that the FED was late in reducing interest rates until June started to switch to the buying side after June. I had already given high targets many times before and we had seen ATHs. The most important factors that increased prices in the first half of 2024 were geopolitical risks and Central Bank purchases, although ETF inflows were very low. For gold, which has yielded over 25% so far in 2024;
- Investors seeing gold as a currency that can strengthen against the dollar in the markets.
- Increased money inflows into ETFs after June and continued money inflows until the end of the year
- The decline in US 10-Year Yields following the messages given about interest rate cuts at the Jackson Hole symposium.
In the 4-hour chart, I observe that prices continue to be suppressed below the 2524.7 supply zone. As long as this zone is maintained, declines can be expected to accelerate towards the 2463.5 demand zone. US data to be announced during the week may be decisive in the direction of pricing. In order to see a positive price movement, the 2524.7 supply zone will need to be exceeded. In this case, it is possible that the potential for prices to rise towards 2550.2 levels will increase.
It seems likely that factors such as demand for gold from Asia (example: Dwali Festival) and Central Banks increasing their purchases again will all support prices. For this reason, even if we see declines in gold demand in the short term due to a slowdown from China, I think this will be a buying opportunity and prices may go to 2800-3000 USD levels when 2590 is broken.
When we look at market comments, many investment institutions have similar ideas about gold, here are a few examples:
*Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at GAMA Asset Management SA, targets 2800 USD
*Banks such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are talking about the potential for prices to reach 2,700 dollars per ounce in April 2025.
*Citigroup Inc. , said that inflows into ETFs will increase “significantly” in six to 12 months, and demand could reach $3,000 by mid-2025 amid looser monetary policy and recession risks.
* Wayne Gordon, commodity strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management, expects prices to reach $2,600 in the last quarter of 2024, after geopolitical risks also increase demand for portfolio hedges and large ETF inflows when the Fed makes its first rate cut.
* Ryan McIntyre, managing partner at Sprott Inc., which manages $31.1 billion in assets, expects the market to shift to gold ETFs and see sharp increases.
In oil, buying reinforcements continue to dominate under the 78.37 supply zone following Iraq’s statements. This zone is critical for sellers, suggesting a potential correction. The first target of this correction could be the 74.26 demand zone. However, for the uptrend to continue, the 78.37 level needs to be broken. In this case, it seems likely that prices will rise towards the 80.18 levels.
With the expected movements in the crypto asset market increasing the market liveliness, short-term suppressions below 65645 levels in Bitcoin are drawing attention. Therefore, if prices remain below this area, it may bring about a horizontal movement in the short term. However, if the 65645 level is exceeded, the probability of the uptrend continuing towards 73000 levels will increase. At this point, it is important to remember that squeezes may create potential buying opportunities.
During this period when volume increases continue in the DAX, attention is turned to the German growth data to be announced during the day. The effect of the momentum gained is evaluated as the pricing of interest rate cuts. If the 18790 supply area is exceeded, the probability of prices rising towards 19443 levels will increase. In terms of negative scenarios, I will closely monitor the reactions that may come from the current area. In line with these reactions, a technical pullback towards the 17859 demand area may arise.
Depending on the cyclical movements of the price in Nasdaq, the momentum gained by the reactions from the supply region has squeezed the prices above the 19264 demand region. Closings below this region have the potential to push the continuation of the pressure towards the 18716 demand region. For now, optimistic pricing seems to be in the background. The rivalry between Nvidia and AMD is considered a determining factor in pricing. In addition, I expect the US data to be announced within the week to support the fluctuation.
The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.
