The fluctuating trend seen in the market continued horizontally in the short term yesterday due to the impact of US data. Today, attention turned to the statements to be made by the FED Chairman. The 1.1096 demand zone in EURUSD is a critical level for buyers. Staying above this zone may bring the potential for an increase towards 1.1241 levels to the forefront again. However, in terms of negative scenarios, if the 1.1096 demand zone is broken, there may be a possibility of a decline towards 1.0985 levels. Therefore, the FED Chairman's statements may affect the market direction.
Investors who have taken positions in the currency continue to stay on the Euro side. When we look at the ECB, the FED side may need to make a faster interest rate cut. I think tomorrow's Jackson Hole meeting may be the first flare. As a result of the increase in short-term European yields after a long time, EUR/USD is testing the same levels after December 2023. Moreover, when we look at the CFTC data, we see that the leveraged positions have not yet been resolved, therefore there is a possibility of an increase for a while to clear the short positions. Although EURUSD makes intermediate corrections, if the data comes in a way that supports US interest rate cuts for a while, it may rise to the 1.18 - 1.20 band.
While the effect of the positive momentum gained by the pricing created by the weakness in the dollar in GBPUSD continues to maintain its strength on the 1.3066 demand zone, attention is turned to the statements to be made by the FED President during the day. In this sense, if the possible upward movements continue, it seems likely that the buying potential will increase towards the 1.3203 levels, while in terms of negative scenarios, if the 1.3066 demand zone is broken, the pricing can be expected to decline towards the 1.2960 levels.
While expectations that interest rate hikes will continue were at the forefront in the statements made by Japan in the early hours in USDJPY, the effect of the negative momentum continues in the 141.858 demand zone. From a technical perspective, if this zone is broken downward, a decline towards the 137.064 demand zone may gain momentum. On the other hand, if prices show an optimistic movement and remain above the 141.858 demand zone, there may potentially be an increase towards 149.002 levels.
While the volume declines seen in the ounce gold market cause prices to give back their gains, the ongoing pressure below the 2511 supply zone may lead to a continuation of downward trends. In this context, I can say that prices may decline to 2463.5 levels. On the other hand, the 2511 level must be broken for upward movements. In such a case, an increase towards 2550.2 levels may gain momentum. In addition, the statements to be made by the FED chairman are important on a daily basis.
In the statements made by Iraq for oil, it was stated that no changes were made to OPEC's production policy and no restrictions were made, and this situation caused the prices to remain under negative pressure. In this context, although the 71.46 demand zone gave instantaneous positive reactions from buyers, I can say that there should be no rush for upward movements. Falling below the 71.46 level could create a downward momentum towards the 69.38 demand zone. For positive movements, the course above the 71.46 demand zone should be closely monitored.
Despite the pressures experienced in the crypto asset market, Donald Trump's statements that he would appoint Elon Musk as a minister if he becomes president had a positive effect on prices. Technically, if Bitcoin remains above the 57055 demand zone, prices can be expected to rise towards the 65,645 levels. For negative scenarios, if the 57,055 level is broken, prices may fall to the 51,352 levels.
Large-scale selling pressures from technology companies in Nasdaq caused declines from expected levels to stand out. The 19264 demand zone is a critical level for buyers, and as long as this zone remains above, prices may rise towards the 19971 levels. For the downward dominance, the 19264 demand zone needs to be broken downwards. In such a case, there may be a possibility that prices will regain momentum and decline towards the 18716 demand zone.
In the medium-term outlook for the DAX, it has been observed that sellers were previously effective in the 18452 supply area and the squeezes in this area have been concentrated in a narrow area. Closing above this area can be expected to take prices to 18763 levels. However, in terms of downward movements, prices are likely to fall to 17946 levels depending on the reactions from the 18452 supply area. There is no clear case for optimistic price movements at the moment. Messages from the European Central Bank members that they will implement two interest rate cuts by the end of the year and fundamental data support these expectations.
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