There were inflation data on the American side. Last week, as I expected, I said that if it came below 0.2 and 2.9, i.e. 3, maybe there would be a little panic. But there was no such panic at all. Because buyers started to gain strength here. Since the main trend was broken 2 weeks ago, it made a bear trap. Of course, I started to state a little more cautious statements in order to guide it correctly here. Frankly, the sale I expected also came, but there was also a risk that this sale would deepen. This week, especially on the day the monkey flower news came out, Nasdaq closed very well. They bought it the next day or two and it closed well. Therefore, the table here is positive for now 19600 - 20750, of course there is a possibility of a double top here. Those who follow me know that I have been targeting around 21000 for a long time. They also know that I expect a correction from here. However, right now, Nasdaq has touched its 50-week average and here it touched its 200-day average and there was a purchase from here. The 22000 level is an important resistance in Nasdaq. After a little back and forth here, the 22000 - 23000 band is inevitable. In the longer term, the 27000 level can be tested. In order for the uptrend to be disrupted, there must be day closings below the 18000 level. If not, the movements will continue upwards. The bull season continues, deep declines are buying opportunities.
Of course, there is something like this here. I would say there is a financial reason behind every economic event. Especially around 17300, Trump came out and said "Kamala Crash". In other words, the American presidential candidate implied that Kamala caused the sale. He used such an expression and there was a sudden purchase. Kamala seems to have taken the lead in the polls right now. Therefore, politics also came into play here. In America, Trump is currently considering nominating JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon as the Treasury Secretary. Such powerful players have the power to direct these indexes. But here, probably both coming to the forefront in the polls and Kamala Harris's offer of $25,000 to new home buyers, then market price adjustments, price control. There will be statements like this, which may also have stagflationary effects, let me note that in the future, because America, as you know, is the capital of the free market, such an event, even a New York Times headline called Kamunism, which shows signs similar to socialism. It will be an interesting election period in America. But Kamala's gradual rise to the forefront in the polls, the decline in inflation data from last week, Powell's meeting at Jackson Hall on Friday this week, I frankly expect statements about interest rate cuts in the meeting here.
The dollar index was strong in the first half of the year. I had said that Euro - Pound would be bought. DXY is losing value, so I think DXY will lose value for a while longer. There may be a reaction this week. But even if the decrease here is a reaction, I think the bearish picture will support stock markets and crypto upwards. I think silver will also react upwards this week. Silver is normally an industrial type metal, in other words, silver has industrial type usage rather than a precious metal. Therefore, when there was a sudden recessionary pressure here a couple of weeks ago, when capital played on the democrats, silver also sold off due to fear of recession. For now, these fears have been postponed a bit, the data that came is good, in other words, the employment data is also good, it is going balanced, to be honest. Therefore, for now, this is a recessionary pressure, at least until the election, I didn't expect it anyway, but when the main trend in Nasdaq broke, I got a little stressed. There is no problem for now. If silver does not close below 27 - 26.5, the price will soon want the 34 - 37 and 42 target.
DXY is technically stuck between 107 and 100. When interest rate cuts start globally, the DXY side will lose the 100 level and will open up space to the main support level of 89. The real critical scenario is whether we will start at 89 and break 89 and reach 63 or whether we will use 89 as support and go to 160. We will evaluate this at that time, but even if the technical outlook eases to 89, if it holds, it is a sign that there will be major problems in the market in the coming months (12-18 months). I think we will soon be talking about 1.15 levels unless EURUSD breaks down by 1.08.
Dax recovered its 2-week wounds last week. In short, the support level is 18000-17900, if it continues to hold here, a movement of 18500 - 19000 and 20000 is inevitable.
Now Japan is paying interest. The direct incident is that they increased interest after 30 years. This means that this downward trend in USDJPY will continue. We will see occasional increases and reactions. If there is no extreme deterioration, like weekly closings above 152, the price will want 130 first and then 110 with a lower term.
As long as we stay above 1.27 - 1.28 in GBPUSD, 1.32 - 1.35 - 1.40 is the target.
I think the upward movement in ounce gold will continue. I have previously mentioned the importance of the 2470 level, if it is exceeded again, a movement of 2590 - 2650 - 2800 is inevitable. We closed last week at the 2520 level and have entered the area where the movement will accelerate. Easing up to the 2450 - 2420 level is considered normal. If it wants to continue without easing, the 2650 level is the main resistance.
Bitcoin touched 49000 - 50000 and received a reaction from there. I am now expecting an upward movement here. The breaking point here may be Powell's positive statements about the interest rate cut at Jackson Hall this week. But I think the market is slowly turning up here as well. When will this analysis be invalid, if it falls below around 45000, Bitcoin will break the uptrend downwards and perhaps a stop should be made there. Downward risks may occur in the long term. I am following a flag formation in Bitcoin in the short term. It looks like it will push the 62000 - 64000 resistances. The crash movement that occurred after the 59000 - 57000 level was broken, and although the current term has narrowed down a lot, there is still no action. If we can break the 64000 - 67000 region this week, we can reach the 72 band. I am looking for permanence there, if we can get closings, the whole market will be seriously green. Therefore, I expect a more appetite market in risky markets parallel to the American 10-year and DXY, which are weakening upwards. Stock exchanges are also included in this.
I expect an increase in Ethereum like everyone else. It may need to be horizontal for a while longer for the increase. However, if the 3500 level can be broken, then I can say that the lower rally has started. If it has difficulty going up and hits the 2100 level again, it means there is a problem in the market.
In natural gas, natural gas purchases came especially with Russia's silence on the attack on the Kursk region of Ukraine. It is staying silent for a bit because of this. Of course, as I mentioned, it is necessary to read political events and financial reasons together. Oil has always touched the 75 support. Now I think there will be positive developments regarding Iran. Frankly, I do not expect any stressful news from that side this week. Netanyahu really needs war, he needs conflict. He has a lot of corruption cases against him. He will want to make things tense. It also suits America. Because a recessionary picture has formed here.
If oil had broken down, there could have been panic in the market all of a sudden. For example, the volatility index reached crisis levels. They went down a little more last week, but it was very solid 2 weeks ago. It was above 65. Normally, this crisis level is the levels seen in the 2008 crisis and the 2020 Covid crisis. Now the market has calmed down a little more. Therefore, I will follow 75 here. Only if the downward trend starts here, that is, frankly, that global slowdown, the global slowdown in China, may be slowly starting to send shock waves to the world. It is necessary to follow it together with the price. Recession fears and falling demand continue to push prices down. Last week, I mentioned the importance of 82. We hit 82 and returned to the 78 region. Unless the 82 and 83 bands are permanently exceeded, $72 below is inevitable. Geopolitical risks should be calculated in closings above 82.
Powell is expected to signal a minimum 25 basis point interest rate cut at Jackson Hall for the September Fed meeting. In fact, the market currently expects a 25 basis point interest rate cut as 75% and a 50 basis point interest rate cut as 25%. I have been saying for a long time that there will be an interest rate cut in May, especially before the election, when Biden's candidacy was canceled and Kamala came, there was already enough space for the Democrats to be elected. Therefore, the picture is slowly coming together. I have been saying for a long time that such a market may want to be relieved before the election. But it seems like this will be a bit exaggerated. In other words, Kamala's promises may later emerge in an inflationary picture in America.
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