The New York Stock Exchange closed higher after retail sales in the US exceeded expectations. After inflation data released this week in the US indicated that price pressures were easing, today's retail sales data revealed that consumer spending remained strong, which led to a positive trend in stock markets. Retail sales in the US increased by 1 percent monthly in July, above expectations. The increase in retail sales during this period was the highest monthly increase since January 2023. It was stated that recession fears in the US economy were easing after the retail sales data exceeded expectations. Unemployment claims in the US also continued to decline. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the country fell to 227 thousand in the week ending August 10, below market expectations. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits, which continued its decline into the second week, fell to its lowest level since the beginning of July. Following strong retail sales and a decline in unemployment claims, the probability of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September has outpaced the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut.
Following the data in question, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September has increased to 76.5 percent in pricing in money markets, while the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut has decreased to 23.5 percent. While investors are also following the news flow on the corporate side, Cisco, which announced its balance sheet after the markets closed yesterday, increased its shares by 6.8 percent after the company announced that it would be laying off workers but its financial results exceeded expectations. The shares of US retail giant Walmart also gained 6.6 percent after the company's revenue and profit exceeded expectations in the three-month period ending July 31 and raised its profit forecast for this year. Ulta Beauty's shares also rose 11.2 percent after Berkshire Hathaway, whose CEO is US billionaire and investor Warren Buffett, bought shares in the company.
The US central bank announced on Thursday that Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium next Friday. Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook on August 23, continuing the tradition of the Fed chair giving the opening speech during the three-day conference. The event will be held at Jackson Lake Lodge in Grand Teton National Park this year on August 22-24. Let me state that housing starts and building permits in the US and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index will be monitored today.
It is seen that pricing is starting to recover after the selling pressure experienced in Nasdaq last week. In this period when the 19561 level is being tried to be exceeded, the expectation that the purchases made by technology companies from the bottom may carry prices towards the 19971 levels comes to the forefront if this area is broken. Although there is no clear expectation for downward movements at the moment, staying below the 19561 supply zone may cause volatility to occur below this zone in the short term.
I see that the positive momentum gained by pricing in the DAX ahead of the European Central Bank inflation data to be announced on Tuesday next week is strongly maintained below the 18452 supply zone. This zone draws attention as a critical area for sellers and I can say that selling pressures may come to the fore if the liquidity gap in the region is filled. In this case, the first pullback seems likely to occur towards the 17946 levels. In order for the upward momentum to continue, the 18452 supply zone must be broken, in which case I can predict that the positive movement towards the 18763 levels may continue.
The EURUSD parity is trading at $1.0984 on the new day. When I evaluate the euro dollar parity, in a positive scenario, movements towards the 1.1012 - 1.1049 region can be seen. In particular, permanent movements above 1.1049, which was tested on August 14, can be a sign of a trend rally. In a negative scenario, sales towards the 1.0896 - 1.0856 region can be observed in possible declines below the 1.0910 level. In this context, the movements of the Classic Dollar Index are quite important, while the index (DXY), which was trading close to 106 levels at the beginning of July, has recently been trading below 103, suggesting that the pressure process continues for the index. Following the positive data from the US yesterday, fluctuations are seen in pricing. If the pressure below the 1.1011 supply region continues, prices are likely to decline towards 1.0928 levels. In terms of buyer movements, first the 1.1011 supply zone needs to be broken. In this case, we can predict that the potential to rise towards 1.1076 levels may continue. Although there is no data flow today, it is possible to state that volatility will be low in the market.
The fact that the growth data announced by the Bank of England in GBPUSD yesterday met expectations caused pricing to gain a strong positive dominance. This situation shows that pricing is suppressed below the 1.2896 supply zone. If this zone is broken, it seems likely that prices will accelerate towards 1.2986 levels. Although there is no clear risk in terms of downward movements at the moment, reactions from the 1.2896 level may lead to short-term fluctuations. However, I can say that the general trend is upward.
The fact that the growth data from Japan in USDYPY was above expectations caused pricing to gain positive momentum while we expect the yen to strengthen. I predict that if the 149.002 level is challenged and this level is exceeded, pricing will support the buying potential towards 153.913 levels. However, if this level is stayed below, it is possible for a negative pressure to start again and prices to continue to decline towards 141.858 levels.
I observed that price movements in ounce gold followed a horizontal course after the US data announced yesterday. I predict that pricing continuing below the 2472.4 supply region may support a decrease towards 2427.0 levels if negative pressures continue. However, in terms of possible movements in the buying direction, I can say that the price is limited in this region and if the 2472.4 supply region is broken, the potential to rise towards 2498.7 levels may continue. For now, it seems likely that the pressure will continue for a while longer.
I observe that prices are moving towards the 78.37 supply region due to the selling pressures in oil. It is understood that this region acts as a critical resistance level and the selling pressure is decreasing. If the 78.37 level is broken upwards, prices can be expected to continue to rise towards 80.18 levels. However, the effect of sellers who may come into play in the current supply area should be closely monitored. In line with the selling reactions that may come from this area, prices are likely to fall to 75.97 levels.
The effort of Bitcoin prices to stay above the 57055 demand area shows that this area is an important support point. If the region continues to hold, a positive movement towards 65645 levels can be expected. However, in order for the price to gain downward momentum, the 57055 demand area must first be broken. If this break occurs, it seems likely that prices will fall to 51352.
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