The New York Stock Exchange completed the first trading day of the week, in which the intensive data agenda, especially inflation, will be followed, with a mixed course. While the macroeconomic data to be announced this week became the focus of investors after the easing of recession concerns that increased in the US last week, the first trading day of the week was mixed in the stock markets. While the Producer Price Index (PPI) to be announced in the country and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be announced on Wednesday are awaited, I can say that more clues will be sought in the inflation data regarding the policies of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) from now on. I can state that the CPI in the US is expected to increase by 0.2 percent monthly and 3 percent annually in July, and that the data may be decisive on the direction of the markets. Analysts, who stated that the possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates by 50 basis points and 25 basis points in September is almost equally priced in the money markets, reported that a total of 100 basis point interest rate cut is expected from the bank by the end of this year.
On the corporate side, JetBlue Airways shares lost 20.7 percent of their value after the company announced plans to borrow approximately $2.75 billion and S&P and Moody's downgraded the company's credit rating. Although the volume declines in the stocks of US technology giants appear to be due to layoffs, pricing on the Nasdaq is currently exhibiting a limited positive movement below the 18553 area. If this area breaks upwards, there may be a buying potential up to 19711 levels in the medium term. However, there is currently no clear signal for downward movements. Still, it is important to keep in mind that the downtrend continues; current structures may support sellers. Therefore, the possibility of a decline towards 17156 levels should also be taken into account in line with the reactions that may come from the 18553 area.
European stock markets closed with mixed movements. At the close, the indicator index Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.04 percent to 498.98 points. Shares of travel and luxury goods companies fell by 0.8 percent. While the hottest day of the year was experienced in England, inflation and growth figures in England are also being followed in Europe. Let's add something to the England heading. The National Statistics Office is conducting an interaction process with market participants and others regarding the policy of publishing figures in London, half an hour before the sterling interest rate markets open and one hour before bonds. England is reviewing the timing of publishing important economic statistics due to concerns that the current pre-stock market opening data release is encouraging volatility in interest rate and bond markets. In other words, England may change the timing of pre-market data releases.
The limited positive dominance highlights horizontal compressions in prices. The focus of the market is on the European Central Bank and the euro zone, and the messages given by the members of the European Central Bank that they will make two interest rate cuts by the end of the year are causing increased selling pressures in the market. Technically, prices below the 17928 supply zone may support the continuation of the negative movement, and the seller effect coming from this zone may trigger a decline towards 16909 levels. For the resumption of buying movements, the 17928 level must be exceeded; in this case, an increase towards the 18790 levels may be seen. Let me state that the Producer Price Index (PPI) and machinery orders in Japan, the unemployment rate in the UK, the ZEW economic confidence index in the Euro Zone and Germany, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US will be monitored.
The EURUSD parity is trading at $ 1.0939 on the new day. When I evaluate the euro dollar parity, the parity may want to continue its positive outlook above the 1.0881 level, which I noted as the weekly lowest level. In addition, permanent movements above the 1.1008 level, which I follow as the monthly highest level, can also be seen as an important preliminary signal for the continuation of the rise. Otherwise, if my current scenario is invalid, the support points of 1.0885 and 1.0844, where the 21 and 55-day exponential moving averages pass, can be followed with importance and attention. In an environment where buyers are increasing their power in the medium term, it is observed that the 1.0950 supply zone is being challenged. If this zone is exceeded, the purchasing potential can be expected to be supported up to 1.1002 levels. There is no clear situation in terms of negative movements at the moment. However, the impact of the PPI data to be announced by the US during the day should be monitored carefully. It should not be forgotten that a positive PPI data could cause a decline towards 1.0857 levels together with the reactions that may come from the current zone.
In GBPUSD, pricing continues to maintain its strength under the 1.2813 supply zone due to limited purchases. If this zone is exceeded, purchasing reinforcements can be supported towards 1.2896 levels. However, considering that the current zone has previously created selling pressure, if the inflation data to be announced tomorrow falls short of expectations, a decline towards the 1.2701 demand zone may occur. It should be noted that the 1.2813 supply zone must be broken for positive movements to continue. In this case, the purchasing potential is likely to gain momentum towards 1.2896 levels in the medium term.
Attention in the market is turned to the inflation data to be announced tomorrow. Pricing in USDJPY is losing momentum below the 149.002 level. Selling movements under this zone may create more negative pressure towards 141.858 levels if the inflation data declines. For optimistic scenarios, inflation needs to show a short-term increase. This may cause prices to offer selling opportunities at higher levels in anticipation of interest rate cuts next month. However, if buying reinforcements come to the fore before the current decline occurs, an increase towards 153.913 levels may be seen by exceeding the 149.002 level.
The ounce of gold is trading at $ 2460.81 this morning. While the ounce of gold continues to move above the region I am following in the short term, I observe that its last one-week increase has been realized by 2.98%. If positive pricing continues, the levels of $ 2476 and $ 2483 may be tested. The psychological level of $ 2500 will act as a significant resistance in the next stage, and if this level is exceeded, new records may be seen on the gold front. Below, the $ 2450 level will be followed for now, while I will continue to follow the $ 2400 level as the main support point. Intelligence information regarding Iran's possible attacks on Israel, along with statements about the cancellation of the attacks, are causing positive fluctuations in pricing. There are also statements that the FED's September interest rate cuts have encouraged upward movements in the market and that these cuts have taken place. However, the 2472.4 supply area is currently under the influence of sellers. A short-term decline below this area could pull prices to 2427.0 levels. On the other hand, the 2472.4 level needs to be exceeded for the potential to continue; in this case, it may be possible for pricing to be supported towards 2498.7 levels. We should also keep in mind that the PPI data to be announced during the day may also have an impact on market movements.
Tensions in the Middle East and the possible effects of the Russia-Ukraine war in oil provide a positive trend on pricing. However, the 80.18 supply area is under strong seller pressure and reactions from this area may cause a short-term decline. In this case, it seems possible for prices to pull towards 77.81 levels. On the other hand, if the 80.18 level is exceeded, prices may rise towards 82.75 levels. In this context, it would be useful to keep in mind that the US crude oil inventory data to be announced tomorrow may have significant effects on the market.
I observe that despite the strong volume increase in Bitcoin, prices are moving negatively. However, if the 57055 demand zone remains above, there is a high probability that prices will accelerate towards 65645 levels with positive buying reactions. In terms of selling pressure, if the 57055 demand zone is broken, prices can be expected to rapidly decline to 57000.
The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.
