The New York Stock Exchange ended the day down after the short-lived recovery trend in the markets following the selling pressure experienced at the beginning of the week due to the strengthening of recession concerns in the US. The indexes, which have been following an upward trend for the last two days following the selling pressure experienced at the beginning of the week in the markets, turned negative again after the demand in the 10-year bond auction fell below expectations. I can say that the weak demand in the bond auction increased investors' anxiety and the decline in the stock market revealed the fragility of the recovery experienced after the historic selling wave.
On the other hand, while corporate balance sheets have once again become the focus of investors, Disney's shares fell by 4.5 percent after the company's financial results exceeded expectations but the operating income in its parks unit decreased. Amgen's shares lost 5 percent after the company's profit fell short of expectations. Super Micro Computer's shares fell by 20.1 percent after the company's profit fell below expectations. Airbnb’s shares also fell 13.4% after disappointing second-quarter financials and warning of slowing demand from U.S. customers. Shopify’s shares gained 17.8% after the company reported better-than-expected earnings.
Three-quarters of global carry trading has now disappeared, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co., with recent sell-offs wiping out gains for the year. Yields across the group of 10, emerging-market and global carry trading baskets tracked by the bank have fallen about 10% since May, quantitative strategists Antonin Delair, Meera Chandan and Kunj Padh wrote in a note to clients. The moves wiped out year-to-date returns and significantly reduced earnings accrued through the end of 2022. “The spot component of the global carry basket suggests that 75% of carry has disappeared,” the JPMorgan team wrote.
With the rapid increase in layoffs in the technology sector and new companies joining this trend, I observe that negative pressure continues on the Nasdaq index. In this context, I expect pricing to decline towards the 17156 demand zone. There is no significant development at this stage in terms of movements that buyers will direct. However, if the 18,553 supply zone is exceeded, it seems likely that the balances will change and the purchasing potential will increase.
The DAX index, which is under the influence of sellers, is showing a selling trend along with the statements of the European Central Bank members. In this context, the 16909 demand zone stands out as the first target of downward movements. While the effect of at least two interest rate cuts expected by the end of the year continues on the markets, optimistic scenarios are currently in the background. However, if the 17928 level is exceeded, the purchasing potential can be expected to increase and move towards the 18790 levels.
The EURUSD parity is trading at $ 1.0930 levels on the new day. I observe an increase of close to 1% in the euro dollar parity, especially this month. This situation may bring forward the expectation of a possible increase up to 1.0945 and 1.0985 levels. In the next step, there is the 1.1008 level, which I noted as the weekly and monthly highest level. In the presence of possible transactions in favor of the dollar, I will be following the 1.0919 - 1.0900 support zone for now. With the decrease in purchasing reinforcements, I observe that the correction seen in pricing is deepening below the 1.0950 supply zone. Below this zone, the declines are likely to continue to 1.0857 levels in the first place. Although there is no clear situation in terms of optimistic pricing at the moment, it should not be forgotten that the unemployment benefit application data to be announced by the US during the day may create volatility in the market. In possible increases, I can state that if the 1.0950 supply zone is broken, the probability of the purchase potential continuing to 1.1002 levels may increase.
The Bank of England's announcements that it will continue to cut interest rates until the end of the year have created great enthusiasm in the market and strengthened the perception that inflation is no longer a concern. From a technical perspective for GBPUSD, if the pressures under the 1.2730 supply zone continue, prices are likely to fall to 1.2612 levels. However, for the price movements with buyers to strengthen, 1.2730 must be exceeded. If this level is maintained, I technically foresee that the buying potential will come to the forefront up to 1.2813 levels.
The statements of the Vice President of the Bank of Japan emphasized that the high volatility in the market prevented an increase in interest rates, and as a result of this situation, prices for USDJPY are currently below the 149.02 supply zone. While it seems technically possible that pressures will continue below this zone, it is possible for prices to decline to the 141.85 demand zone. However, for an optimistic price movement, the 149.02 supply zone must first be overcome. I think that if this level is broken, an increase to 153.91 levels will likely be supported.
The lower than expected stock data for oil increases the buying potential and contributes to compensating for losses in pricing. I see that continuing movements below the 76.72 supply zone can support an increase towards 78.52 levels if this zone is maintained. However, since the current zone creates significant resistance for sellers, this situation may impose some limitations. Reactions from the 76.72 supply zone may lead to a short-term correction. In this context, I can say that 73.93 levels can be considered as the first target in bearish scenarios.
The recovery process after the selling pressures experienced in Bitcoin significantly affects the search for balance under the 59353 supply zone. Exceeding this zone may support the price increase towards 65645 levels. On the other hand, the continuation of the current momentum may leave bearish scenarios in the background. However, negative reactions that may come from the 59353 supply zone may bring the possibility of a decline towards 51352 levels to the agenda.
Gold ounce is trading at $ 2393.03 this morning. The levels I have been technically following on the precious metal side, which has been exhibiting quite volatile movements in recent days, are the 2400 - 2413 region. I say that prices below this region may trigger the continuation of the pullback desire and thus a movement area towards the 2390 and 2375 supports may be formed. I think that prices below the $ 2375 level in particular may be viewed negatively. I believe that permanent pricing above the $2400 - 2413 region may be needed for positive expectations on the precious metal side to come to the fore.
In the gold market, I expect pricing to continue negatively for a while due to momentum losses and increasing seller effect. With the appreciation of the dollar, I observe that the 2356.6 demand region has been supported by buyers several times. However, if this region is broken, it is possible for prices to decline towards 2318.6 levels. Positive US unemployment data to be announced during the day may cause this decline to accelerate. On the other hand, if buying reactions are observed in the 2356.6 demand region, a rise towards 2420.9 levels can also be technically foreseen. I wish you abundant earnings.
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