The US Dollar maintained a weaker tone in early Asian trading today, continuing its decline against major currencies such as the euro and sterling. The move follows recent US labor market data that points to a potential slowdown, raising the possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later in the year. In foreign exchange trading, the dollar depreciated against the Japanese yen and was traded at 155.39 yen, falling to 155.95, the highest level of the previous session. The dollar index remained unchanged at 105.25.
Speculations that the FED will cut interest rates keep the US dollar on edge, while the EUR/USD parity is hovering close to the 1.0780 level. The major currency pair remains strong as investors ignore the fact that the European Central Bank will start cutting borrowing rates in June. However, European Central Bank policymakers believe that further interest rate cuts from the July meeting could revive price pressures. The upward levels of 1.08 - 1.0835 can be followed as resistance points. In the alternative scenario, 1.0760 - 1.0720 levels can be followed as support points in downward movements.
In GBP/USD, sterling rose to 1.2540 on the back of positive UK first-quarter gross domestic product and March factory data. Strong growth in UK gross domestic product pointed to the shallowness of the technical recession observed in the second half of 2023. UK first-quarter gross domestic product expanded at the same pace as it had previously contracted, at 0.2% year-on-year. Investors expected sluggish growth on a year-over-year basis. Meanwhile, monthly gross domestic product growth for March was 0.4%, above the consensus of 0.1% and the previous data of 0.2%, which was revised upwards from 0.1%. In the parity, 1.2563 - 1.2620 levels can be followed as resistance points. In the alternative scenario, 1.25 - 1.2410 levels can be followed as support points in downward movements.
USD/JPY gained value on Friday due to the recovery in the US dollar. Japan's current account surplus fell below market expectations, weakening the Japanese yen. US initial jobless claims rose to an eight-month high of 231,000, exceeding forecasts of 210,000. In the parity, 156 - 157 resistance points can be observed as 155 - 154 support points.
Ounce gold is rising as investors turn to safe havens in an environment where geopolitical tensions are increasing. The rise also stems from concerns about the US labor market due to recent data that has triggered speculation that the US Federal Reserve may cut interest rates sooner than expected, increasing the appeal of the non-yielding precious metal. Technically, 2340 - 2320 levels may come to the fore as support in the continuation of the declines. In the alternative scenario, 2355 - 2373 levels appear in upward movements again.
Brent fell 1.3% to $82 a barrel on Friday, while U.S. crude oil was below $78. China's weak credit and inflation data showed the government was struggling to boost demand in the world's biggest oil importer. This put pressure on risky assets, including stocks and some commodities. Meanwhile, on the supply front, Iraqi Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani first said over the weekend that Baghdad had cut production sufficiently and would not accept more. For Brent today, 84.30 - 85.80 levels can be followed as resistance and 82.8 - 81.7 levels can be followed as support.
Bitcoin price rose more than 12.50% just three days after reaching a two-month low of approximately $56550, rising above $64000 on May 4. This revival occurred mainly after the US Federal Reserve pledged to keep interest rates unchanged through 2024. As of May 4, bitcoin was tracking a solid close above its 50-day exponential moving average around $63966. Doing so could lead the price towards the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement line near the upper trend line resistance near $69650. Technically, 63000 will be followed as the main support level during the day. Below this level, 60700 levels will be watched as support zones. In the alternative scenario, 64500 - 66000 support zones will be followed during intraday increases.
At the close of European stock markets, the benchmark index Stoxx Europe 600 increased by 0.19% to 516.77 points. While cautious statements continue to come from FED officials, the expectation of relaxation in global markets causes optimistic pricing. In the continuation of the increases, DAX may reach 19000 levels above the 18900 resistance. In the alternative scenario, 18780 - 18700 levels appear in downward movements again.
Nasdaq stock exchange completed the last trading day of the week with a mixed course. While the verbal guidance of FED officials is also being followed, Dallas FED President Lorie Logan stated that monetary policy is tight enough to reduce inflation to the 2% target and that price pressures are still very strong. Logan stated that it was too early to cut interest rates. In the continuation of the declines, 18100 - 18000 levels may come to the fore as support for the index. In the alternative scenario, 18200 and 18300 levels are seen in upward movements again.
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