Micron is releasing its earnings report on September 30 after US markets close. The revenue guidance is $49–51 billion, with a midpoint of $50 billion.

Revenue and earnings per share will be the headlines. My focus is on the extent to which these earnings can carry over into subsequent quarters. I will address these points in the same order after the earnings release.

1. 14-week quarter vs. 13-week comparison.

The $50 billion guidance implies growth of approximately 21% compared to the previous quarter's $41.46 billion. The increase in the weekly average is approximately 12%.

$50 billion × 13/14 = $46.43 billion.

I will use this calculation to adjust for the calendar effect when transitioning to Q1 FY27. If Q4 revenue hits $50 billion, a new 13-week guidance of $48 billion would represent a 3.4% growth in the weekly average, despite a 4% decline in the total figure. Once the results are announced, I will update the comparison using the actual revenue; I will also separately monitor seasonality and shipment timing.

2. How does revenue compare to expectations?

Where did revenue land relative to the company's latest guidance and pre-earnings consensus? Was the variance driven by price, bit shipments, or product mix?

I will also examine the expectations provided for these three factors in the new guidance.

3. What is happening to the cost of sales as revenue grows?

From Q4 FY25 to Q3 FY26, revenue rose from $11.32 billion to $41.46 billion. GAAP cost of sales increased from $6.26 billion to $6.40 billion. While revenue has increased 3.66-fold, the rise in costs is approximately 2.2%.

Pricing is the primary driver of margin expansion; product mix and production costs also contribute.

The cost figure of 6.40 billion, scaled solely by the number of weeks, equates to 6.89 billion. If the actual cost deviates from this level, I will investigate the cause: higher shipment volumes, product mix, production efficiency, or depreciation?

4. Does the price premium of the new product offset its increased cost?

The Q4 gross margin guidance is approximately 86%. I will analyze the change in the Q1 FY27 margin based on price, product mix, and cost-per-bit.

The critical detail here is that management states the price premiums for next-generation products will be negotiated in the future. The fact that the contract has been signed does not lock in the new product's margin at this stage. What I will be watching is the extent to which increased production costs can be passed on to the sales price.

5. How much of the increase in cash reserves stems from operations?

Customer deposits will be reflected in financing cash flows and excluded from free cash flow. These funds are subject to repayment to customers during later stages of the contracts.

Three questions: How much was collected? Under which liability item was it recorded? When will it be repaid?

A second point to monitor is taxes: What is the contribution of unpaid taxes to cash flow? How will the cash generated from operations be affected if the payment schedule changes?

6. When will the $100 billion contract translate into revenue?

At the end of the quarter on May 28, the remaining performance obligation stood at approximately $5 billion. The approximately $100 billion figure announced on June 24 includes contracts signed after the reporting period. This amount is based on minimum volumes and pricing for the remaining duration of the contracts.

I will be looking at: How much of this will convert to revenue over the next 12 months? What have the new contracts added? What details were disclosed regarding price floors and premiums for new products?

I will evaluate the strength and scope of the price protection clauses in the contracts in conjunction with cost factors. I will supplement the earnings call details with the specifics found in the 10-K filing once it is released.

7. What portion of the investment is allocated to construction versus equipment?

The forecast for net capital expenditure in FY26 is approximately $27 billion. Management expects quarterly investment in FY27 to exceed the pace seen in Q4, with more than half of the annual increase driven by construction costs.

Cash outflows occur today, but the contribution to production depends on the facility's timeline. Beyond the total budget, I will monitor the split between construction and equipment, incentives, production start dates, and the impact of depreciation. I will track gross expenditure separately from net expenditure (after accounting for incentives).

8. Five additional questions for the footnotes and the earnings call.

• Inventory: The most recently reported inventory level was 120 days. Is the change driven by product mix, increased production, or a buildup of inventory at customer sites?

• HBM: Will there be separate disclosures regarding revenue, shipments, and profitability? Is there sufficient data to isolate HBM’s contribution to total profit?

• Capital returns: Is there greater clarity regarding the amount and timeline of the capital returns that management plans to increase starting December 9? How will it be financed given the rising investment budget?

• Management: On August 26, Manish Bhatia’s expanded scope of responsibility came to include pricing and customer demand. Are the statements regarding price and volume consistent with the investment plan?

The real question is how much of today’s high profit is sustainable.

I will revisit the list item by item following the earnings release. Unanswered questions will remain open. There is no directional forecast; there is a watchlist.

This is not investment advice.