Normally, I don’t write Crypto articles, but after what I’ve seen today I can’t resist.
I’m pretty sure that the past several weeks have given many of us crypto enthusiasts and believers the best Christmas present that we’ve had in a long time. Personally, I’m still waking up every morning and giggling like a little girl when I check my Coinbase, Nexo, and Celsius balances, which have increased over 50% in less than 2 months. And I’ve gotten in so many delicious “I-told-you-so’s” to my close family and friends that my ego is currently a little more inflated than it should be.
For whatever reason, buying crypto is fun for me; it doesn’t even feel like investing, such as when I top off some of my positions in the stock market or add to the stash of physical assets that I keep. When I buy crypto, I kind of feel like my 10 year-old son does when he spends his hard earned money on a new box of Pokemon cards: Gotta catch’em all! I can’t explain it, but it's true. However, I STILL make myself follow the rules.
Until today the desire to buy even more crypto was tainted by a nagging voice in my head.
Ironically, it’s the voice of well-known crypto skeptic Warren Buffet. It kept saying to me, “Be greedy when others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy.” Everything in me has wanted to move even more of my assets into crypto, but as we all know, steep rises can be followed by even steeper falls. Again ironically, the reason my crypto assets have done so well is because I learned a long time ago not to break Warren Buffet’s rules. I am a strict dollar cost averager, and I never, ever, ever buy anything in the green. My sole basis for buying only Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash when they are down is because of their fundamentals (limited supply and perceived value). So naturally, this is the point where I resist buying more; it has worked for all of my other assets, and it has worked for crypto, so why break the rules? HODL and go away until this bull run ends, right?
As far as crypto goes, things seem to be almost too good: The IRS, Legislatures, Institutional Investors, and people who have just begun to hear of crypto are now starting to take it seriously, and gobbling it up to take Bitcoin and altcoins to historic highs. Long story short, everyone else is being greedy, so now its time for me to be afraid and head for the door if I am to follow my own rules, right? Wrong.
People aren’t really greedy for crypto despite the historical gains … yet. I really think that this bull run is just the beginning. Crypto is still very much in the shadows as far as the bulk of the population is concerned. Most of the people in my personal life that I try to talk to about crypto just look at me like I have turned into a strange creature with three arms and a second head. Even the other circles I run in on the internet have no clue; we (crypto enthusiasts) are still the strange, nerdy ones with three arms and two heads, and even the few institutional investors that have taken positions have been criticized by the majority of their peers. Bottom line: Most people (relative to the whole population) don’t know anything about it and don’t want anything to do with it.
But after the Georgia Senate runoff elections today, they will (or at least half of them will).
This is where I tell on myself a little bit in order to justify my reasoning - I am purely a conservative when it comes to both politics and the economy. I live in the middle of the South and the majority of those around me are almost exactly the same way. To put it into a national perspective, look at the popular vote numbers in the Presidential and Congressional elections. The Democrats have won the entire government by razor thin margins, in many cases by less than 2% in most states.
And the other 48% (myself included) is absolutely terrified about what they are going to do. The #1 fear that we have is that they are going to go on a money printing rampage (they always do). The #2 fear is that they will over regulate and over tax everything so that making any real progress in terms of fiat currency will be next to impossible for the middle class. Economics 101: When you print money the value of it plummets (I know I’m probably preaching to the choir here, but follow me). Economics 102: You only tax what you want to suppress. Economic conservatives believe this to their core, and whether right or wrong, it is a powerful belief that will never be undone by emotional speeches, public shaming, or appeals to the greater good.
So basically, 48% of the country is about to start scrambling to get all of their value out of cash and start bracing for a storm of over taxation and over regulation. I personally have friends and colleagues who are financially planning on their small businesses to close. I have others who have cashed out their 401ks accepting the penalties in order to get their value out of cash. I have a family member who even quit their state job in order to remove their money from the state consolidated retirement program (which you can only do if you leave state employment) in order to take a job in the private sector so that they are able to manage their own retirement. Others are doing simpler things like buying silver/gold, stocks, land, oh and ammo … lots and lots of ammo. It’s literally everyone else’s version of HODLing.
And they were doing these things BEFORE the Democrats won the Senate. I haven’t talked to any of them today, but I imagine they are freaking out and moving money much more frantically than before.
But very soon, they will run out of places to run. The stock market is over-inflated with some of the most popular companies having ridiculous P/E Ratios. IRAs and 401ks will not outpace the inflation that a Democrat spending spree will incite, real estate is already in a seller’s market, and Gold/Silver are already sky-high. There’s nowhere to go, but Crypto … (hey, that kinda rhymes). In my opinion, crypto has a very high chance of becoming Sun Tzu’s “golden bridge to retreat,” and personally, I want to be able to charge as many tolls as I can to use that bridge by already having the best position that I can staked out before everyone else truly starts to panic.
… and LOL … just as I am reaching this point in the article … I just now am getting the news about the riots in the Capitol. (Those poor misguided creatures don’t speak for all of us). They are already panicking, and likely only because they are fanatics, not even because they understand what's about to happen. In the coming weeks there will be pandering statements about bipartisan negotiations and “rebuilding democracy” in order to try and calm people down, but in the coming years there will be some of the most progressive, liberal policies you have ever seen; they basically have an open book full of blank checks for fiat currency. They won’t negotiate … because they don’t have to. (AOC’s words, not mine) And they don’t care about the value that they diminish for the working class who rely on jobs, 401ks, IRAs and other fiat backed investments to support themselves and their families. (those are actually my words)
But very soon, the non-fanatic people with the money are going to start becoming very fearful. Conservatives are, if I’m not mistaken, still overly stereotyped and characterized as the greedy, stingy ones with all the money. And if all that stereotype holds true, they are about to start fearfully taking their money and heading for the door … and for overseas.
And I really do believe that Crypto will be one of those doors.
The fear is real whether it's justified and or unjustified, right or wrong; you can see it on Fox and CNN right now. It has long been said that the stock market is nothing more than perception, and I’m certain that the same will apply to Crypto. The perception is (for at least 48% of the population) fear, and as my longtime hero when it comes to finances says, “Be greedy when others are fearful” (Even tho, he’d probably disagree with me applying his statement to crypto currencies)
Time to be greedy and buy more crypto. At least if I’m wrong, I’ll have a lot of fun doing it: Gotta Catch’em All! LOL.